Renewable Fuel Standard: Potential Economic and Environmental Effects of U.S. Biofuel Policy (2011)
Chapter: Appendix L: BioBreak Model Assumptions
| Supplier Breakeven - Parameter Assumptions | |||
| Parameter | Feedstock | Mean Value (Likeliest if Skewed) | Statistical Distribution of Cost Estimates1 |
| Nutrient Replacement (CNR) | Stover | $13.6/ton ($14.6) | Minimum Extreme |
| Switchgrass (All) | $15.6/ton ($16.6) | Minimum Extreme | |
| Miscanthus (All) | $8.35/ton | Normal | |
| Wheat Straw | $5.6/ton | Normal | |
| Short-rotation woody | - | - | |
| crops (SRWC) | - | - | |
| Forest Residue | $62.5/acre (~$15.6/ton) | Fixed | |
| Alfalfa (2nd year) | |||
| Harvest and Maintenance (CHM) | Stover | $43/ton ($46) | Minimum Extreme |
| Switchgrass (All) | $36/ton ($38) | Minimum Extreme | |
| Miscanthus (All) | $45/ton ($48) | Minimum Extreme | |
| Wheat Straw | $32/ton ($33) | Minimum Extreme | |
| SRWC | $26/ton | Normal | |
| Forest Residue | $26/ton | Normal | |
| Alfalfa | $57 per acre per harvest | Fixed | |
| Stumpage Fee (SF) | SRWC | $20/ton | Normal |
| Distance Fixed Cost (DFC) | Stover | $8.50/ton | Normal |
| Switchgrass (All) | $8.50/ton | Normal | |
| Miscanthus (All) | $8.50/ton | Normal | |
| Wheat Straw | $8.50/ton | Normal | |
| SRWC | $10/ton | Normal | |
| Forest Residue | $10/ton | Normal | |
| Alfalfa | $8.50/ton | Normal | |
| Supplier Breakeven - Parameter Assumptions | |||
| Parameter | Feedstock | Mean Value (Likeliest if Skewed) | Statistical Distribution of Cost Estimates1 |
| Distance Variable Cost (DVC) | Stover | $0.35/ton/mile ($0.38) | Minimum Extreme |
| Switchgrass (All) | $0.35/ton/mile ($0.38) | Minimum Extreme | |
| Miscanthus (All) | $0.35/ton/mile ($0.38) | Minimum Extreme | |
| Wheat Straw | $0.35/ton/mile ($0.38) | Minimum Extreme | |
| SRWC | $0.50/ton/mile ($0.53) | Minimum Extreme | |
| Forest Residue | $0.50/ton/mile ($0.53) | Minimum Extreme | |
| Alfalfa | $0.35/ton/mile ($0.38) | Minimum Extreme | |
| Distance2 | Stover (CS) | 36 miles | Fixed |
| Stover/Alfalfa | 26 miles | Fixed | |
| Alfalfa | 43 miles | Fixed | |
| Switchgrass (MW) | 19 miles | Fixed | |
| Switchgrass (MW_low) | 21 miles | Fixed | |
| Switchgrass (App) | 15 miles | Fixed | |
| Switchgrass (SC) | 16 miles | Fixed | |
| Miscanthus (MW) | 13 miles | Fixed | |
| Miscanthus (MW_low) | 14 miles | Fixed | |
| Miscanthus (App) | 13 miles | Fixed | |
| Wheat Straw | 37 miles | Fixed | |
| SRWC | 17 miles | Fixed | |
| Forest Residue | 53 miles | Fixed | |
| Annual Biomass Demand (BD) | All | 772,000 tons3 | Fixed |
| Yield (YB) | Stover (CS) | 2.1 tons | Gamma |
| Alfalfa (1st year) | 1.25 tons | Fixed | |
| Alfalfa (2nd year) | 4 tons | Fixed | |
| Switchgrass (MW) | 4 tons (3.4) | Maximum Extreme | |
| Switchgrass (MW_low) | 3.1 tons | Log Normal | |
| Switchgrass (App) | 6 tons (5) | Maximum Extreme | |
| Switchgrass (SC) | 5.7 tons | Beta | |
| Miscanthus (MW) | 8.6 tons (8) | Maximum Extreme | |
| Miscanthus (MW_low) | 7.1 tons (6) | Maximum Extreme | |
| Miscanthus (App) | 8.8 tons (8) | Maximum Extreme | |
| Wheat Straw | 1 ton | Normal | |
| SRWC | 5 tons | Normal | |
| Forest Residue | 0.5 tons | Normal | |
| Biomass Density (B) | Alfalfa | 0.15 | Normal |
| Other Feedstocks | 0.20 | Normal | |
| Storage (CS) | Stover | $10.50/ton ($11) | Minimum Extreme |
| Switchgrass (All) | $10.50/ton ($11) | Minimum Extreme | |
| Miscanthus (All) | $10.50/ton ($11) | Minimum Extreme | |
| Wheat Straw | $10.50/ton ($11) | Minimum Extreme | |
| SRWC | $11.50/ton ($12) | Minimum Extreme | |
| Forest Residue | $11.50/ton ($12) | Minimum Extreme | |
| Alfalfa | $10.50/ton ($11) | Minimum Extreme | |
| Establishment and Seeding (CES)4,5 | Stover | - | - |
| Switchgrass (All) | $40/acre | Log Normal | |
| Miscanthus (All) | $150/acre | Log Normal | |
| Wheat Straw | - | - | |
| SRWC | $52/acre | Normal | |
| Forest Residue | - | - | |
| Alfalfa (1st year w/ fert) | $165/acre | Fixed | |
| Supplier Breakeven - Parameter Assumptions | |||
| Parameter | Feedstock | Mean Value (Likeliest if Skewed) | Statistical Distribution of Cost Estimates1 |
| Opportunity Cost (COpp) | Stover (CS) | - | - |
| Switchgrass (MW) | $150/acre6 | Log Normal | |
| Switchgrass (MW_low) | $100/acre | Log Normal | |
| Switchgrass (App) | $75/acre | Normal | |
| Switchgrass (SC) | $50/acre | Normal | |
| Miscanthus (MW) | $150/acre | Log Normal | |
| Miscanthus (MW_low) | $100/acre | Log Normal | |
| Miscanthus (App) | $75/acre | Normal | |
| Wheat Straw | $1.80/acre ($0) | Maximum Extreme | |
| SRWC | - | - | |
| Forest Residue | - | - | |
| Alfalfa (1st year w/ fert) | $175/acre | Fixed | |
| Processor Breakeven - Parameter Assumptions | |||
| Parameter | Feedstock | Mean Value in Baseline (Likeliest if Skewed) | Distribution |
| Oil Price (POil) | All | $52/barrel $111/barrel $191/barrel | Fixed (3 scenarios) |
| Energy Equivalent Factor (EV) | All | 0.68 (0.65) | Maximum Extreme |
| Tax (T) | All | $1.01/gal | Fixed |
| Byproduct value (VBP) | Stover Switchgrass (All) Miscanthus (All) Wheat Straw SRWC Forest Residue Alfalfa | $0.16/gal $0.18/gal $0.18/gal $0.18/gal $0.14/gal $0.14/gal $0.18/gal | Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed Fixed |
| Octane (VO) | All | $0.10/gal | Fixed |
| Capital Cost (CI) | All | $0.91/gal ($0.85) | Maximum Extreme |
| Non-enzyme Operating Cost | All | $0.36/gal | Fixed |
| Enzyme Cost | All | $0.50/gal ($0.46) | Minimum Extreme |
| Yield (YE) | All–current All–future | 70 gal/ton 80 gal/ton | Normal Normal |
1 The cost estimates taken from several published studies cited in Appendix L are not necessarily normally distributed. This column reflects the statistical distribution that the cost observations tended to best fit and that was used in the Monte Carlo process to derive statistical “mean” and “most likely values” if the statistical distribution of costs was skewed.
2 Average hauling distance is calculated using the formulation by French (1960) for a circular supply area with a square road grid. Technically, the distance is not fixed since it is a function of stochastic parameters including biomass density and yield. French, B. 1960. Some considerations in estimating assembly cost functions for agricultural processing operations. Journal of Farm Economics 62:767-778.
3 Equivalent to 2,205 tons per day delivered to a biorefinery operating 350 days per year.
4 Switchgrass establishment seeding cost is amortized over 10 years at 10 percent, Miscanthus establishment and seeding cost is amortized over 20 years at 10 percent, and woody biomass is amortized over 15 years at 10 percent. The values presented in the table are annual payments per acre.
5 All per acre costs are converted to per ton costs using the yield assumptions provided in the table.
6 Midwest opportunity cost is assumed to be positively correlated with corn yield through stover yield with a correlation of 0.75.
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