Previous Chapter: Appendix A: Mathematical Functions
Suggested Citation: "Appendix B: Candidate Disease Profiles and Data." Institute of Medicine. 2012. Ranking Vaccines: A Prioritization Framework: Phase I: Demonstration of Concept and a Software Blueprint. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13382.
Suggested Citation: "Appendix B: Candidate Disease Profiles and Data." Institute of Medicine. 2012. Ranking Vaccines: A Prioritization Framework: Phase I: Demonstration of Concept and a Software Blueprint. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13382.
Suggested Citation: "Appendix B: Candidate Disease Profiles and Data." Institute of Medicine. 2012. Ranking Vaccines: A Prioritization Framework: Phase I: Demonstration of Concept and a Software Blueprint. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13382.

Tuberculosis disease profile

BOX B-2
Tuberculosis

Infectious Agent: Mycobacteria in the M. tuberculosis complex, primarily M. tuberculosis, M. bovis, and M. africanum.

Routes of Transmission: Inhaling droplet nuclei in airborne aerosols generated by coughing or sneezing by individuals with pulmonary tuberculosis and consuming contaminated, unpasteurized cow’s milk.

Health Effects: In a small proportion of newly infected individuals, especially infants, initial infection progresses rapidly—in weeks to months—to primary tuberculosis, which often disseminates to blood, bone, and other distant sites. Pulmonary tuberculosis produces cough, fever, night sweats, fatigue, and weight loss; it often goes undiagnosed for a number of months, during which time infection is transmitted to others, especially to close contacts, such as household members. However, infection in the lung can be contained by the immune system and remains latent; fewer than 10 percent of latently infected individuals subsequently develop reactivation pulmonary tuberculosis, generally when age, malnutrition, HIV infection, or other conditions suppress the immune system and thereby allow latent infection to reactivate.

Incidence, Prevalence, and Mortality: Approximately one-third of the world’s population is estimated to be latently infected with M. tuberculosis, but only a small proportion of these individuals will develop tuberculosis. WHO estimated that in 2010, 8.8 million people developed tuberculosis worldwide, yielding an incidence of 128 cases per 100,000 people. About 650,000 cases were caused by multi-drug-resistant strains of M. tuberculosis, and 1.4 million with tuberculosis died of the

Suggested Citation: "Appendix B: Candidate Disease Profiles and Data." Institute of Medicine. 2012. Ranking Vaccines: A Prioritization Framework: Phase I: Demonstration of Concept and a Software Blueprint. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13382.

disease. The incidence rate, number of cases, and deaths from tuberculosis has been declining in recent years, mainly due to increased attention and resources devoted to diagnosing cases and assuring that patients receive and complete the lengthy treatment regimen.

Prevention: In most wealthy countries with low incidence rates, prevention of tuberculosis primarily rests on prompt diagnosis, correct multi-drug treatment, and ensuring completion of treatment among those with pulmonary tuberculosis. Latent infected individuals are also treated with drugs, especially those at high risk of reactivation tuberculosis, such as HIV-infected individuals. In poor countries with high incidence rates of tuberculosis, prevention of tuberculosis, while also dependent on prompt diagnosis, correct treatment, and ensuring completion of treatment, primarily rests on targeting all infants with a single dose of the vaccine, given shortly after birth.

Treatment: Successful treatment of tuberculosis requires multiple drugs (at least three) given for a lengthy time period (9 to 12 months), even though the patient is usually asymptomatic (and non-infectious) after a few weeks of treatment. Treatment of latently infected individuals to prevent reactivation tuberculosis is generally accomplished with a single drug (example, isoniazid), also given for an extended period of time (6 to 12 months).

Vaccine: Bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccine is widely used at birth throughout South Africa, where there is a high burden of pediatric HIV infection. BCG is given to all newborns as soon as possible after birth to protect infants infected with tuberculosis from progressing to the more dangerous forms of meningeal and miliary tuberculosis.

Suggested Citation: "Appendix B: Candidate Disease Profiles and Data." Institute of Medicine. 2012. Ranking Vaccines: A Prioritization Framework: Phase I: Demonstration of Concept and a Software Blueprint. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13382.
Suggested Citation: "Appendix B: Candidate Disease Profiles and Data." Institute of Medicine. 2012. Ranking Vaccines: A Prioritization Framework: Phase I: Demonstration of Concept and a Software Blueprint. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13382.

the highest incidence reported from Africa: 0.53 per 1,000 live births. The mean incidence of late-onset disease (7–89 days) is 0.24 per 1,000 live births. Incidence is again highest in Africa, at 0.7 per 1,000 live births. Typically, early-onset disease is more likely to cause mortality (case fatality rate of 12.1 percent) than the late-onset disease (case fatality rate of 6.8 percent).

Prevention: Currently, to control group B streptococcus intrapartum antibitotics are administered to pregnant women with either known risk factors for group B streptococcos or documented carriage of the bacteria. This approach was widely adopted in the United States and many developed countries and resulted in substantial declines in disease in infants younger than 7 days. In the United States, culture-based screening is used to identify candidates for chemoprophylaxis, but implementing this strategy has been a difficult in low- and middle-income countries.

Treatment: Supportive care and antibiotics are needed for the successful treatment of GBS in infants. Benzylpenicillin or amoxicillin combined with aminoglycosides is the mainstay of therapy at the onset when GBS is suspected. When GBS is confirmed, benzylpenicillin or amoxicillin can be used as a single agent. Treatment duration for sepsis is generally 10 days, but meningitis is treated for a minimum of 14 days, with more prolonged therapy in complicated cases.

Vaccine: A vaccine is not currently available for group B streptococcal infection.

Suggested Citation: "Appendix B: Candidate Disease Profiles and Data." Institute of Medicine. 2012. Ranking Vaccines: A Prioritization Framework: Phase I: Demonstration of Concept and a Software Blueprint. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13382.
Suggested Citation: "Appendix B: Candidate Disease Profiles and Data." Institute of Medicine. 2012. Ranking Vaccines: A Prioritization Framework: Phase I: Demonstration of Concept and a Software Blueprint. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13382.
Malea
Age Group Population Life Table Health Productivity
N Living (lx) Life Years (nLx) Life Expectancy (ex) Standard Life Expectancyb (ex) HUI2c Hourly Wage Rated *(<15 parents)
<1 2,294,679 100,000 99,348 76 79.6 0.99 $17.90
1-4 8,889,066 99,276 396,817 75.6 78.8 0.99 $17.97
5-9 10,753,934 99,156 495,604 71.7 74.9 0.99 $23.50
10-14 10,838,788 99,085 495,185 66.7 69.9 0.99 $24.57
15-19 11,472,812 98,989 493,905 61.8 65 0.99 $9.25
20-24 11,374,397 98,573 491,150 57 60.1 0.99 $11.45
25-29 11,021,998 97,887 487,775 52.4 55.2 0.95 $17.90
30-34 10,581,472 97,223 484,373 47.7 50.4 0.92 $17.97
35-39 10,547,351 96,526 480,477 43.1 45.6 0.88 $23.50
40-44 10,872,790 95,665 475,151 38.4 40.8 0.88 $23.50
45-49 11,447,885 94,396 467,208 33.9 36.1 0.86 $24.57
50-54 10,825,136 92,487 455,327 29.6 31.5 0.86 $24.57
55-59 9,393,752 89,643 438,424 25.4 27.1 0.83 $24.62
60-64 7,674,399 85,726 415,226 21.5 23 0.83 $24.65
65-69 5,587,609 80,364 383,132 17.7 18.9 0.86 $20.90
70-74 4,156,592 72,889 339,373 14.3 15.2 0.86 $19.00
75-79 3,219,109 62,860 281,766 11.2 11.7 0.84 $19.00
80-84 2,359,608 49,846 209,856 8.4 8.7 0.84 $19.00
85-89 1,318,716 34,096 131,028 6.2 6.3 0.84 $19.00
90-94 486,989 18,315 58,224 4.4 4.4 0.84 $18.00
95-99 112,289 7,198 17,589 3 3 0.84 $18.00

aThe country life tables are available from WHO Global Health Observatory Data Repository (http://bit.ly/HyByvk).

bStandard life expectancy depicts the life expectancy for the Japanese population. Data available through WHO Global Health Observatory Data Repository (http://bit.ly/Ho2VI3).

cHUI-2 scores are derived from: Fryback, D. G., N. C. Dunham, M. Palta, J. Hanmer, J. Buechner, D. Cherepanov, S. Herrington, R. D. Hays, R. M. Kaplan, and T. G. Ganiats. 2007. U.S. norms for six generic health-related quality-of-life indexes from the National Health Measurement study. Medical Care 45(12):1162–1170.

dHourly wage rate was gathered from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Wages. The parents’ wage rate was used for children under the age of 15 years.

Suggested Citation: "Appendix B: Candidate Disease Profiles and Data." Institute of Medicine. 2012. Ranking Vaccines: A Prioritization Framework: Phase I: Demonstration of Concept and a Software Blueprint. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13382.

U.S. data for influenza
Disease Burden

Female
Age Group Population (N) Target Population (% of N) Annual Incidence Rate (per 100,000) Case Fatality Ratea (%) Vaccine Coverage (%) Vaccine Effectivenessb (%) Herd Immunity Thresholdc (%)
(<1) 2,183,518 100% 20,300 0.004 30% 60% 100%
(1-19) 39,904,750 100% 11,947 0.002 20% 70% 100%
(20-64) 94,379,233 100% 6,600 0.05 40% 75% 100%
(>65) 22,853,007 100% 9,000 1.17 60% 40% 100%
Male
Age Group Population (N) Target Population (% of N) Annual Incidence Rate (per 100,000) Case Fatality Ratea (%) Vaccine Coverage (%) Vaccine Effectivenessb (%) Herd Immunity Thresholdc (%)
(<1) 2,294,679 100% 20,300 0.004 30% 60% 100%
(1-19) 41,954,600 100% 11,947 0.002 20% 70% 100%
(20-64) 93,739,180 100% 6,600 0.05 40% 75% 100%
(>65) 17,240,912 100% 9,000 1.17 60% 40% 100%

aMolinari, N. A., I. R. Ortega-Sanchez, M. L. Messonnier, W. W. Thompson, P. M. Wortley, E. Weintraub, C. B. and Bridges. 2007. The annual impact of seasonal influenza in the US: Measuring disease burden and costs. Vaccine 25(27):5086–5096.

bAllison, M. A., M. F. Daley, L. A. Crane, J. Barrow, B. L. Beaty, N. Allred, S. Berman, and A. Kempe. 2006. Influenza vaccine effectiveness in healthy 6-to 21-month-old children during the 2003–2004 season. Journal of Pediatrics 149(6):755–762. e751; Nichol, K. L. 2003. The efficacy, effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of inactivated influenza virus vaccines. Vaccine 21(16):1769–1775; Vu, T., S. Farish, M. Jenkins, H. and Kelly. 2002. A meta-analysis of effectiveness of influenza vaccine in persons aged 65 years and over living in the community. Vaccine 20(13–14):1831–1836.

cHerd immunity threshold is assumed to be at 100 percent due to the infectious nature of Influenza.

Suggested Citation: "Appendix B: Candidate Disease Profiles and Data." Institute of Medicine. 2012. Ranking Vaccines: A Prioritization Framework: Phase I: Demonstration of Concept and a Software Blueprint. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13382.

Disease Morbidity and Vaccine Complications

Disease Morbidity Percent of Cases Disutilitya (Toll) Disability Weightb Durationc (Years)
Influenza lllness Without Outpatient Visit 59.5% 0.09 0.01 0.0137
Influenza lllness With Outpatient Visit 40.0% 0.13 0.1 0.0137
Influenza Hospitalization 0.5% 0.2 0.3 0.0137
Vaccine Complications Probability per Dose Disutilitya (Toll) Disability Weightb Durationc (Years)
Guillain-Barré Syndrome 0.000001 0.35 0.44 0.137
Systemic Reaction (Fever or Achiness) 0.011 0.25 0.1 0.0027
Anaphylaxis 0.00000025 0.25 0.44 0.0027

aDisutility (toll) is the one-time disutility associated with the specific health state. Fryback, D. G., N. C. Dunham, M. Palta, J. Hanmer, J. Buechner, D. Cherepanov, S. Herrington, R. D. Hays, R. M. Kaplan, and T. G. Ganiats. 2007. U.S. norms for six generic health-related quality-of-life indexes from the National Health Measurement study. Medical Care 45(12):1162–1170.

bMathers, C. D., A. D. Lopez, C. J. L. and Murray. 2006. The burden of disease and mortality by condition: data, methods, and results for 2001. Global burden of disease and risk factors. Table 3A.6. Global burden of disease 2004 update: Disability weights for diseases and conditions 1:45–93.

cCommittee’s expert opinion.

Suggested Citation: "Appendix B: Candidate Disease Profiles and Data." Institute of Medicine. 2012. Ranking Vaccines: A Prioritization Framework: Phase I: Demonstration of Concept and a Software Blueprint. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13382.

Costs

Health Care Services Cost Disease Morbidity Vaccine Complications
Death Influenza Without Outpatient Visit Influenza With Outpatient Visit Influenza With Hospitalization Guillain- Barré
Syndrome
System ic Reaction Anaphylaxis
Over-the-counter medicationsa $3 1 1 1 1 0 0 0
Physician visita $200 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
Outpatient visita $250 1 0 1 1 0 0 0
Emergency department visitb $750 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Hospitalizationb $1,200 5 0 0 5 40 0 0

aProsser, L. A., M. A. O’Brien, N. A. Molinari, K. H. Hohman, K. L. Nichol, M. L. Messonnier, and T. A. Lieu. 2008. Non-traditional settings for influenza vaccination of adults: Costs and cost effectiveness. Pharmacoeconomics 26(2):163–178.

bCommittee’s expert opinion and estimates from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP) Nationwide Inpatient Sample Data. 2009 national statistics for principal diagnosis of influenza only.

Vaccine Characteristics

Length of immunitya 1 years or life
Doses required per persona 1 doses
Cost per doseb $13 $
Cost to administer per dosec $10 $
Research costsc $50,000,000 $
Licensure costsc $100,000,000 $
Start-up costsc $100,000 $
Time to adoptionc 5 years

aCDC recommends an influenza shot every year (http://1.usa.gov/tEA0Mg).

bCost is approximated using CDC prices for cost per dose (http://1.usa.gov/26Xjuj).

cCommittee’s expert opinion.

Suggested Citation: "Appendix B: Candidate Disease Profiles and Data." Institute of Medicine. 2012. Ranking Vaccines: A Prioritization Framework: Phase I: Demonstration of Concept and a Software Blueprint. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13382.
Suggested Citation: "Appendix B: Candidate Disease Profiles and Data." Institute of Medicine. 2012. Ranking Vaccines: A Prioritization Framework: Phase I: Demonstration of Concept and a Software Blueprint. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13382.

Disease Morbidity and Vaccine Complications

Disease Morbidity Percent of Cases Disutilitya (Toll) Disability Weightb Durationc (Years)
Pulmonary Tuberculosis (with Inpatient Treatment) 40.0% 0.30 0.28 0.06
Pulmonary Tuberculosis (with Outpatient Treatment) 20.0% 0.08 0.27 0.16
Latent Tuberculosis (with Treatment) 8.0% 0.00 0.00 0.00
Extrapulmonary Tuberculosis (with Inpatient Treatment) 22.0% 0.30 0.29 0.06
Vaccine Complications Percent of Cases Disutilitya (Toll) Disability Weightb Durationc (Years)
Injection Site Abscess 0.000010 0.050000 0.100000 0.082100
Lymphadenitis 0.000010 0.050000 0.010000 0.043000
Severe Local Reaction 0.000050 0.050000 0.100000 0.008200

aDisutility (toll) is the one-time disutility associated with the specific health state. Guo, N., F. Marra, and C. A. Marra. 2009. Measuring health-related quality of life in tuberculosis: A systematic review. Health and Quality of Life Outcomes 7:14.

bMathers, C. D., A. D. Lopez, and C. J. L. Murray. 2006. The burden of disease and mortality by condition: data, methods, and results for 2001. Global burden of disease and risk factors. Table 3A.6. Global burden of disease 2004 update: Disability weights for diseases and conditions 1:45–93.

cCommittee’s expert opinion.

Suggested Citation: "Appendix B: Candidate Disease Profiles and Data." Institute of Medicine. 2012. Ranking Vaccines: A Prioritization Framework: Phase I: Demonstration of Concept and a Software Blueprint. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13382.

Costs

Health Care Services Costa Disease Morbidity
Death Pulmonary Tuberculosis (Inpatient) Pulmonary Tuberculosis (Outpatient) Latent Tuberculosis with Treatment Extrapulmonary Tuberculosis Lung Impairment
Direct Observed Therapy (DOT) Drugsb $0 0 0 0 9 0 0
Outpatient Treatmentb $400 0 0 1 0 0 0
Inpatient Treatmentb $760 1 11 0 0 3 0
Hospitalizationb $1,300 15 0 0 0 0 5
Health Care Services Costa Vaccine Complications
Injection Site Abscess Lymphadenitis Severe Loc al Reaction
Direct Observed Therapy (DOT) Drugsb $0 0 0 0
Outpatient Treatmentb $400 1 1 0
Inpatient Treatmentb $760 0 0 1
Hospitalizationb $1,300 0 0 0

aCosts associated with the health care services used to treat morbidity caused by the disease and vaccine.

bBlumberg, H. M., M. K. Leonard, and R. M. Jasmer. 2005. Update on the treatment of tuberculosis and latent tuberculosis infection. JAMA 293(22):2776–2784.

cHolland, D. P., G. D. Sanders, C. D. Hamilton, and J. E. Stout. 2009. Costs and cost effectiveness of four treatment regimens for latent tuberculosis infection. American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine 179(11):1055–1060.

dHCUP Brief #60. 2008. Tuberculosis stays in U.S. hospitals, 2006.

Suggested Citation: "Appendix B: Candidate Disease Profiles and Data." Institute of Medicine. 2012. Ranking Vaccines: A Prioritization Framework: Phase I: Demonstration of Concept and a Software Blueprint. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13382.
Suggested Citation: "Appendix B: Candidate Disease Profiles and Data." Institute of Medicine. 2012. Ranking Vaccines: A Prioritization Framework: Phase I: Demonstration of Concept and a Software Blueprint. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13382.
Suggested Citation: "Appendix B: Candidate Disease Profiles and Data." Institute of Medicine. 2012. Ranking Vaccines: A Prioritization Framework: Phase I: Demonstration of Concept and a Software Blueprint. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13382.

Disease Morbidity

  Percent of Cases Disutilitya (Toll) Disability Weightb Durationc (Years)
Meningitis 25% 0.70 0.61 0.04
Pneumonia 20% 0.13 0.15 0.04
Respiratory distress 15% 0.13 0.14 0.02
Sepsis 15% 0.09 0.09 0.03
Neurological impairment 25% 0.35 0.4  

aFryback, D. G., N. C. Dunham, M. Palta, J. Hanmer, J. Buechner, D. Cherepanov, S. Herrington, R. D. Hays, R. M. Kaplan, and T. G. Ganiats. 2007. U.S. norms for six generic health-related quality-of-life indexes from the National Health Measurement study. Medical Care 45(12):1162–1170.

bMathers, C. D., A. D. Lopez, and C. J. L. Murray. 2006. The burden of disease and mortality by condition: data, methods, and results for 2001. Global burden of disease and risk factors. Table 3A.6. Global burden of disease 2004 update: Disability weights for diseases and conditions 1: 45–93.

cCommittee’s expert opinion.

Costs

Health Care Services Cost Disease
Death Meningitis Pneumonia Respiratory Distress Sepsis Neurological Impairment
Hospitalizationa $2,100 7 14 7 7 2 14

aCommittee’s expert opinion and the HCUP Nationwide Inpatient Sample Data, 2009.

Suggested Citation: "Appendix B: Candidate Disease Profiles and Data." Institute of Medicine. 2012. Ranking Vaccines: A Prioritization Framework: Phase I: Demonstration of Concept and a Software Blueprint. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13382.
Suggested Citation: "Appendix B: Candidate Disease Profiles and Data." Institute of Medicine. 2012. Ranking Vaccines: A Prioritization Framework: Phase I: Demonstration of Concept and a Software Blueprint. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13382.
Suggested Citation: "Appendix B: Candidate Disease Profiles and Data." Institute of Medicine. 2012. Ranking Vaccines: A Prioritization Framework: Phase I: Demonstration of Concept and a Software Blueprint. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13382.
Malea
Age Group Population Life Table Health Productivity
N Living (lx) Life Years (nLx) Life Expectancy (ex) Standard Life Expectancyb (ex) HUI2c Hourly Wage Rateb *(<15 parents)
<1 513,738 100,000 96,596 53.9 79.6 0.99 $4.48
1-4 2,094,078 95,137 375,325 55.6 78.8 0.99 $4.49
5-9 2,587,325 92,961 463,390 52.9 74.9 0.99 $5.88
10-14 2,495,950 92,395 460,642 48.2 69.9 0.99 $6.14
15-19 2,514,105 91,862 457,000 43.4 65 0.99 $2.31
20-24 2,542,121 90,938 450,001 38.8 60.1 0.99 $2.86
25-29 2,384,897 89,062 437,942 34.6 55.2 0.95 $4.48
30-34 2,053,143 86,115 416,874 30.7 50.4 0.92 $4.49
35-39 1,700,601 80,634 386,196 27.6 45.6 0.88 $5.88
40-44 1,372,882 73,844 350,118 24.9 40.8 0.88 $5.88
45-49 1,157,933 66,203 312,525 22.5 36.1 0.86 $6.14
50-54 1,004,315 58,807 275,919 20.1 31.5 0.86 $6.14
55-59 814,859 51,561 238,876 17.5 27.1 0.83 $6.16
60-64 598,768 43,989 202,138 15.1 23 0.83 $6.16
65-69 413,005 36,866 163,729 12.5 18.9 0.86 $5.23
70-74 246,008 28,626 124,506 10.4 15.2 0.86 $4.75
75-79 131,479 21,177 86,228 8.2 11.7 0.84 $4.75
80-84 57,263 13,315 51,119 6.6 8.7 0.84 $4.75
85-89 18,099 7,133 25,265 5.1 6.3 0.84 $4.75
90-94 4,082 2,973 8,783 3.8 4.4 0.84 $4.50
95-99 550 946 2,185 2.8 3 0.84 $4.50

aThe country life tables are available from WHO, Global Health Observatory Data Repository (http://bit.ly/HyByvk).

bStandard life expectancy depicts the life expectancy for the Japanese population. Also available through WHO, Global Health Observatory Data Repository (http://bit.ly/Ho2VI3).

cHUI-2 scores are derived from: Fryback, D. G., N. C. Dunham, M. Palta, J. Hanmer, J. Buechner, D. Cherepanov, S. Herrington, R. D. Hays, R. M. Kaplan, and T. G. Ganiats. 2007. U.S. norms for six generic health-related quality-of-life indexes from the National Health Measurement study. Medical Care. 45(12):1162–1170. Due to the lack of data for HUI-2 within South Africa, estimates for the United States are used.

dWage Rate for South Africa was crudely estimated by converting the United States wage rate to a South African wage based on the prevailing exchange rate.

Suggested Citation: "Appendix B: Candidate Disease Profiles and Data." Institute of Medicine. 2012. Ranking Vaccines: A Prioritization Framework: Phase I: Demonstration of Concept and a Software Blueprint. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13382.

South Africa Data for Tuberculosis

Disease Burden

Female
Age Group Population (N) Target Population (% of N) Annual Incidence Ratea (per 100,000) Case Fatality Rateb (%) Vaccine Coveragec (%) Vaccine Effectivenessd (%) Herd Immunity Threshold (%)
<1 50,4851 100% 800 19 50% 60% 100%
1-19 9,593,485 0% 900 19 50% 60% 100%
20-64 13,928,527 0% 1100 22 50% 50% 100%
>65 1,377,384 0% 981 20 50% 40% 100%
Male
Age Group Population (N) Target Population (% of N) Annual Incidence Ratea (per 100,000) Case Fatality Rateb (%) Vaccine Coveragec (%) Vaccine Effectivenessd (%) Herd Immunity Threshold (%)
<1 513,738 100% 800 19 50% 60% 100%
1-19 9,691,458 0% 973 19 50% 60% 100%
20-64 13,629,519 0% 1200 22 50% 50% 100%
>65 870,486 0% 981 20 50% 40% 100%

aWHO. 2011. Global Tuberculosis Control 2011.

bCorbett, E. L., C. J. Watt, N. Walker, D. Maher, B. G. Williams, M. C. Raviglione, and C. Dye. 2003. The growing burden of tuberculosis: Global trends and interactions with the HIV epidemic. Archives of Internal Medicine 163(9):1009–1021.

cVaccine coverage assumed to be 50 percent.

dColditz, G. A., T. F. Brewer, C. S. Berkey, M. E. Wilson, E. Burdick, H. V. Fineberg, and F. Mosteller. 1994. Efficacy of BCG vaccine in the prevention of tuberculosis. JAMA 271(9):698–702; Rahman, M., M. Sekimoto, I. Takamatsu, K. Hira, T. Shimbo, K. Toyoshima, and T. Fuku. 2001. Economic evaluation of universal BCG vaccination of Japanese infants. International Journal of Epidemiology 30(2):380–385; Rodrigues, L. C., V. K. Diwan, and J. G. Wheeler. 1993. Protective effect of BCG against tuberculous, meningitis, and miliary tuberculosis: A meta-analysis. International Journal of Epidemiology 22(6):1154–1158.

Suggested Citation: "Appendix B: Candidate Disease Profiles and Data." Institute of Medicine. 2012. Ranking Vaccines: A Prioritization Framework: Phase I: Demonstration of Concept and a Software Blueprint. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13382.

Disease Morbidity and Vaccine Complications

Disease Morbidity Percent of Casesa Disutilityb (Toll) Disability Weightc Durationa (Years)
Pulmonary Tuberculosis (with Inpatient Treatment) 40% 0.30 0.28 0.06
Pulmonary Tuberculosis (with Outpatient Treatment) 20% 0.08 0.27 0.16
Latent Tuberculosis (with Treatment) 8% 0.00 0.00 0.00
Extrapulmonary Tuberculosis (with Inpatient Treatment) 22% 0.30 0.29 0.06
Lung Impairment 10% 0.08 0.29  
Vaccine Complications Probability per Dosea Disutilityb (Toll) Disability Weightc Durationa (Years)
Injection Site Abscess 0.000010 0.05 0.1 0.082100
Lymphadenitis 0.000010 0.05 0.01 0.043000
Severe Local Reaction 0.000050 0.05 0.1 0.008200

aCommittee’s expert opinion.

bGuo, N., F. Marra, and C. A. Marra. 2009. Measuring health-related quality of life in tuberculosis: A systematic review. Health and Quality of Life Outcomes 7:14.

cMathers, C. D., A. D. Lopez, and C. J. L. Murray. 2006. The burden of disease and mortality by condition: data, methods, and results for 2001. Global Burden of Disease and Risk Factors. Table 3A.6. Global burden of disease 2004 update: Disability weights for diseases and conditions 1:45–93.

Suggested Citation: "Appendix B: Candidate Disease Profiles and Data." Institute of Medicine. 2012. Ranking Vaccines: A Prioritization Framework: Phase I: Demonstration of Concept and a Software Blueprint. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13382.

Costs

Health Care Services Cost Disease Morbidity
Death Pulmonary Tuberculosis (Inpatient) Pulmonary Tuberculosis (Outpatient) Latent Tuberculosis with Treatment Extrapulmonary Tuberculosis Lung Impairment
Direct Observed Therapy (DOT) Drugsa $46 0 0 0 1 0 0
Outpatient Treatmenta $250 0 0 1 0 0 0
Inpatient Treatmenta $637 0 1 0 0 3 0
Hospitalizationb $360 1 0 0 0 0 5
Health Care Services Cost Vaccine Complications
Injection Site Abscess Lymphadenitis Severe Local Reaction
Direct Observed Therapy (DOT) Drugsa $46 0 0 0
Outpatient Treatmenta $250 1 1 0
Inpatient Treatmenta $637 0 0 1
Hospitalizationb $360 0 0 0

aFloyd, K., D. Wilkinson, and C. Gilks. 1997. Comparison of cost effectiveness of directly observed treatment (DOT) and conventionally delivered treatment for tuberculosis: Experience from rural South Africa. British Medical Journal 315(7120):1407–1411.

Sinanovic, E., and L. Kumaranayake. 2006. Cost effectiveness and resource allocation. Cost Effectiveness and Resource Allocation 4:11.

bWHO. 2011. Econometric estimation of unit costs. WHO-CHOICE 2011 unit cost estimates for service delivery, http://bit.ly/GWGwF1.

Suggested Citation: "Appendix B: Candidate Disease Profiles and Data." Institute of Medicine. 2012. Ranking Vaccines: A Prioritization Framework: Phase I: Demonstration of Concept and a Software Blueprint. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13382.
Suggested Citation: "Appendix B: Candidate Disease Profiles and Data." Institute of Medicine. 2012. Ranking Vaccines: A Prioritization Framework: Phase I: Demonstration of Concept and a Software Blueprint. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13382.
Suggested Citation: "Appendix B: Candidate Disease Profiles and Data." Institute of Medicine. 2012. Ranking Vaccines: A Prioritization Framework: Phase I: Demonstration of Concept and a Software Blueprint. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13382.
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Suggested Citation: "Appendix B: Candidate Disease Profiles and Data." Institute of Medicine. 2012. Ranking Vaccines: A Prioritization Framework: Phase I: Demonstration of Concept and a Software Blueprint. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13382.
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Suggested Citation: "Appendix B: Candidate Disease Profiles and Data." Institute of Medicine. 2012. Ranking Vaccines: A Prioritization Framework: Phase I: Demonstration of Concept and a Software Blueprint. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13382.
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Suggested Citation: "Appendix B: Candidate Disease Profiles and Data." Institute of Medicine. 2012. Ranking Vaccines: A Prioritization Framework: Phase I: Demonstration of Concept and a Software Blueprint. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13382.
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Suggested Citation: "Appendix B: Candidate Disease Profiles and Data." Institute of Medicine. 2012. Ranking Vaccines: A Prioritization Framework: Phase I: Demonstration of Concept and a Software Blueprint. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13382.
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Suggested Citation: "Appendix B: Candidate Disease Profiles and Data." Institute of Medicine. 2012. Ranking Vaccines: A Prioritization Framework: Phase I: Demonstration of Concept and a Software Blueprint. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13382.
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Suggested Citation: "Appendix B: Candidate Disease Profiles and Data." Institute of Medicine. 2012. Ranking Vaccines: A Prioritization Framework: Phase I: Demonstration of Concept and a Software Blueprint. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13382.
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Suggested Citation: "Appendix B: Candidate Disease Profiles and Data." Institute of Medicine. 2012. Ranking Vaccines: A Prioritization Framework: Phase I: Demonstration of Concept and a Software Blueprint. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13382.
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Suggested Citation: "Appendix B: Candidate Disease Profiles and Data." Institute of Medicine. 2012. Ranking Vaccines: A Prioritization Framework: Phase I: Demonstration of Concept and a Software Blueprint. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13382.
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Suggested Citation: "Appendix B: Candidate Disease Profiles and Data." Institute of Medicine. 2012. Ranking Vaccines: A Prioritization Framework: Phase I: Demonstration of Concept and a Software Blueprint. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13382.
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Suggested Citation: "Appendix B: Candidate Disease Profiles and Data." Institute of Medicine. 2012. Ranking Vaccines: A Prioritization Framework: Phase I: Demonstration of Concept and a Software Blueprint. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13382.
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Suggested Citation: "Appendix B: Candidate Disease Profiles and Data." Institute of Medicine. 2012. Ranking Vaccines: A Prioritization Framework: Phase I: Demonstration of Concept and a Software Blueprint. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13382.
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Suggested Citation: "Appendix B: Candidate Disease Profiles and Data." Institute of Medicine. 2012. Ranking Vaccines: A Prioritization Framework: Phase I: Demonstration of Concept and a Software Blueprint. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13382.
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Suggested Citation: "Appendix B: Candidate Disease Profiles and Data." Institute of Medicine. 2012. Ranking Vaccines: A Prioritization Framework: Phase I: Demonstration of Concept and a Software Blueprint. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13382.
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Suggested Citation: "Appendix B: Candidate Disease Profiles and Data." Institute of Medicine. 2012. Ranking Vaccines: A Prioritization Framework: Phase I: Demonstration of Concept and a Software Blueprint. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13382.
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Suggested Citation: "Appendix B: Candidate Disease Profiles and Data." Institute of Medicine. 2012. Ranking Vaccines: A Prioritization Framework: Phase I: Demonstration of Concept and a Software Blueprint. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13382.
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Suggested Citation: "Appendix B: Candidate Disease Profiles and Data." Institute of Medicine. 2012. Ranking Vaccines: A Prioritization Framework: Phase I: Demonstration of Concept and a Software Blueprint. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13382.
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Suggested Citation: "Appendix B: Candidate Disease Profiles and Data." Institute of Medicine. 2012. Ranking Vaccines: A Prioritization Framework: Phase I: Demonstration of Concept and a Software Blueprint. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13382.
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Suggested Citation: "Appendix B: Candidate Disease Profiles and Data." Institute of Medicine. 2012. Ranking Vaccines: A Prioritization Framework: Phase I: Demonstration of Concept and a Software Blueprint. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13382.
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Suggested Citation: "Appendix B: Candidate Disease Profiles and Data." Institute of Medicine. 2012. Ranking Vaccines: A Prioritization Framework: Phase I: Demonstration of Concept and a Software Blueprint. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13382.
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Suggested Citation: "Appendix B: Candidate Disease Profiles and Data." Institute of Medicine. 2012. Ranking Vaccines: A Prioritization Framework: Phase I: Demonstration of Concept and a Software Blueprint. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13382.
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Suggested Citation: "Appendix B: Candidate Disease Profiles and Data." Institute of Medicine. 2012. Ranking Vaccines: A Prioritization Framework: Phase I: Demonstration of Concept and a Software Blueprint. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13382.
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Suggested Citation: "Appendix B: Candidate Disease Profiles and Data." Institute of Medicine. 2012. Ranking Vaccines: A Prioritization Framework: Phase I: Demonstration of Concept and a Software Blueprint. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13382.
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Suggested Citation: "Appendix B: Candidate Disease Profiles and Data." Institute of Medicine. 2012. Ranking Vaccines: A Prioritization Framework: Phase I: Demonstration of Concept and a Software Blueprint. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13382.
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Suggested Citation: "Appendix B: Candidate Disease Profiles and Data." Institute of Medicine. 2012. Ranking Vaccines: A Prioritization Framework: Phase I: Demonstration of Concept and a Software Blueprint. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13382.
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Suggested Citation: "Appendix B: Candidate Disease Profiles and Data." Institute of Medicine. 2012. Ranking Vaccines: A Prioritization Framework: Phase I: Demonstration of Concept and a Software Blueprint. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/13382.
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Next Chapter: Appendix C: Stakeholder Speakers
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