Proceedings of a Workshop

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This activity was supported by contracts between the National Academy of Sciences and the American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, Burroughs Wellcome Fund (Contract No. 1195124), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Contract No. 75D30121D11240, Order No. 75D30122F00011), EcoHealth Alliance, Infectious Diseases Society of America, Johnson & Johnson (Contract No. C2023026615), Merck and Co., Inc. (Grant No. MEM-22-160471), National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health (Contract No. HHSN263201800029I, Task Order No. 75N98023F00023), New Venture Fund (Contract No. NVF-NGDF-NAT10-Subgrant-022263-2023-08-01), Sanofi, Society of Infectious Diseases Pharmacists, U.S. Agency for International Development (Contract No. 7200AA18GR00003), Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences (Contract No. HU00012210001), and U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (Contract No. 36C25024P0225). Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project.

International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-71927-8
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-71927-5
Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/27774

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Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. Mitigating arboviral threats and strengthening public health preparedness: Proceedings of a workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/27774.

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PLANNING COMMITTEE ON MITIGATING ARBOVIRAL THREATS AND STRENGTHENING PUBLIC HEALTH PREPAREDNESS¹

PETER DASZAK (Co-Chair), President, EcoHealth Alliance

THOMAS W. SCOTT (Co-Chair), Distinguished Professor Emeritus, University of California, Davis KEVIN ANDERSON, retired, formerly U.S. Department of Homeland Security

MARCOS ESPINAL, retired, former Assistant Director, Pan American Health Organization

EVA HARRIS, Professor, University of California, Berkeley

KENT E. KESTER, Vice President, Translational Medicine, International AIDS Vaccine Initiative

ALBERT I. KO, Raj and Indra Nooyi Professor of Public Health, Yale University

LINDA S. LLOYD, Independent Consultant; Lecturer, San Diego State University

VALERIE A. PAZ-SOLDÁN, Associate Professor, Tulane University School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine

BENJAMIN PINSKY, Professor of Pathology and Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine

ANN M. POWERS, Associate Director for Science, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Staff

ELIZABETH ASHBY GUO, Program Officer

CLAIRE BIFFL, Research Associate (through July 2024)

ERIKA CHOW, Research Assistant

SAMUEL CRAWFORD, Research Associate

NICKY KUANG, Senior Program Assistant (through October 2023)

JULIE LIAO, Director, Forum on Microbial Threats

JULIE PAVLIN, Science Advisor; Senior Board Director, Board on Global Health

Consultant

ROBERT POOL, Science Writer

___________________

¹ The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine’s planning committees are solely responsible for organizing the workshop, identifying topics, and choosing speakers. The responsibility for the published Proceedings of a Workshop rests with the workshop rapporteurs and the institution.

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FORUM ON MICROBIAL THREATS¹

PETER DASZAK (Chair), President, EcoHealth Alliance

CRISTINA CASSETTI (Vice Chair), Deputy Director, Division of Microbial and Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health

KENT E. KESTER (Vice Chair), Vice President of Translational Medicine, International AIDS Vaccine Initiative

EMILY ABRAHAM, Director, External Affairs and Policy, Global Public Health at Johnson & Johnson

KEVIN ANDERSON, retired, U.S. Department of Homeland Security

DAN H. BAROUCH, Director, Center for Virology and Vaccine Research, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center; William Bosworth Castle Professor of Medicine, Harvard Medical School

DANIEL BAUSCH, President, American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene; Senior Director, Emerging Threats and Global Health Security, FIND

NAHID BHADELIA, Founding Director, Boston University Center for Emerging Infectious Diseases Policy and Research

CHRISTOPHER BRADEN, Principal Deputy Director, National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

RICK A. BRIGHT, Founder, Bright Global Health

AMBIKA BUMB, Deputy Executive Director, Bipartisan Commission on Biodefense

ANDREW CLEMENTS, Senior Scientific Advisor, Emerging Threats Division, U.S. Agency for International Development

GREG FRANK, Director of Global Public Policy, Merck & Co., Inc.

WONDWOSSEN GEBREYES, Executive Director of Global One Health Initiative, The Ohio State University

BRUCE G. GELLIN, Senior Vice President and Chief of Global Public Health Strategy, Rockefeller Foundation

GIGI KWIK GRONVALL, Associate Professor, Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security

ELIZABETH D. HERMSEN, Lead, Global Antimicrobial Resistance and Antimicrobial Stewardship Medical Affairs, Pfizer

ALBERT I. KO, Raj and Indra Nooyi Professor of Public Health, Yale School of Public Health; Professor of Epidemiology and Medicine, Yale School of Medicine

___________________

¹ The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine’s forums and roundtables do not issue, review, or approve individual documents. The responsibility for the published Proceedings of a Workshop rests with the workshop rapporteurs and the institution.

MARK G. KORTEPETER, Vice President for Research, Professor of Preventive Medicine and Medicine, Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences

LINDA S. LLOYD, Independent Consultant; Lecturer, San Diego State University School of Public Health

SYRA MADAD, Senior Director, Special Pathogens Program, NYC Health + Hospitals

JONNA H. MAZET, Vice Provost—Grand Challenges, University of California, Davis

VICTORIA MCGOVERN, Chief Strategy Officer and the Gertrude Elion Endowed Program Officer, Burroughs Wellcome Fund

SUMIKO MEKARU, Vice President, Research and Innovation, The Public Health Company

TIMOTHY D. MURRAY, Professor, Rosalie and Harold Rea Brown Distinguished Endowed Chair, Washington State University

MELISSA NOLAN, Associate Professor, Arnold School of Public Health, University of South Carolina

RAFAEL OBREGÓN, Country Representative, UNICEF Nicaragua

BENJAMIN PINSKY, Professor of Pathology and Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine

AMEET J. PINTO, Associate Professor and Carlton S. Wilder Junior Faculty Chair, Georgia Institute of Technology

P. DAVID ROGERS, Chair, Department of Pharmacy and Pharmaceutical Sciences, St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital

GARY A. ROSELLE, Executive Director, National Infectious Disease Services Program, Veterans Health Administration, U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs

UMAIR SHAH, Secretary of Health, Washington State

JONATHAN SLEEMAN, Senior Science Advisor, U.S. Geological Survey

MATTHEW ZAHN, Deputy Health Officer, Orange County Health Care Agency

Forum on Microbial Threats Staff

ELIZABETH ASHBY GUO, Program Officer

CLAIRE BIFFL, Research Associate (through July 2024)

NICKY KUANG, Senior Program Assistant (through October 2023)

JULIE LIAO, Director, Forum on Microbial Threats

JULIE PAVLIN, Science Advisor; Senior Board Director, Board on Global Health

TAYLOR WINDMILLER, Senior Program Assistant (from January 2024)

Reviewers

This Proceedings of a Workshop was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published proceedings as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the process.

We thank the following individuals for their review of this proceedings:

Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the content of the proceedings nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this proceedings was overseen by DAVID R. CHALLONER, Vice President for Health Affairs (emeritus), University of Florida. He was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this proceedings was carried out in accordance with standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the rapporteur and the National Academies.

We also thank staff member David Butler, the National Academy of Engineering Holloman Scholar, for reading and providing helpful comments on this manuscript.

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Contents

ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS

1 INTRODUCTION

Structure of the Proceedings

References

2 CURRENT AND EMERGING THREATS FROM ARBOVIRAL DISEASES: EXISTING BURDEN AND FUTURE RISK

Advancing Global Research Priorities: Lessons from Zika

Overview of Arboviral Disease: The Current Status and Future of Disease Control

Country and Regional Experience: Impacts and Challenges of Arboviral Control

Discussion

References

3 ASSESSING AND DETECTING ARBOVIRAL RISK

Epidemiological Surveillance

Genomic Surveillance

Integrated Surveillance and Risk Assessment: Case Study from Singapore

Diagnostics for Arbovirus Mitigation

Discussion

References

4 RESPONSE TO ARBOVIRAL THREATS

Arbovirus Vaccines

Vector Control

Integrated Surveillance in the Americas

Predictive Tools and Modeling

Discussion

References

5 LESSONS LEARNED FROM PREVIOUS OUTBREAKS

Previous Arboviral Outbreaks

COVID-19

Discussion

References

6 ARBOVIRUS SPILLOVER AND SPREAD

Zoonotic Disease Spillover and Emergence

Implementation Science: Operationalizing One Health Data

Ranking Disease Threats

Behavior Management to Prevent Spillover and Spread

Discussion

References

7 URBAN DEVELOPMENT AND MANAGEMENT

Vision for Building Aedes Out

Public Health in Urban Environments

Case Study From Singapore

Urban Mosquito Control in Africa and the New Mosquito on the Block

Discussion

References

8 STRENGTHENING PREPAREDNESS FOR ARBOVIRAL DISEASES

Priorities

Question-and-Answer Period

9 CLOSING REMARKS

APPENDIXES

A Workshop Statement of Task

B Public Meeting Agenda

Figures

FIGURES

3-1 Exponential growth of genomic sequencing data for arboviral threats

5-1 Number of diagnostic samples received at the CDC’s Arboviral Diseases Branch diagnostics laboratory by month from January 2010–May 2016

6-1 The factors in determining the risk score for each virus

6-2 Weighted scores in the arbovirus risk assessment displayed in two dimensions

6-3 Consolidated framework for implementation research

7-1 Dengue incidence and Aedes population density (house index) in Singapore, 1966–2022

7-2 Anopheles stephensi is spreading across Africa

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Acronyms and Abbreviations