Flood Forecasting for Transportation Resilience: A Guide (2024)
Chapter: Front Matter
Flood Forecasting for
Transportation Resilience
A GUIDE
TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD 2024 EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE*
OFFICERS
CHAIR: Carol A. Lewis, Professor, Transportation Studies, Texas Southern University, Houston
VICE CHAIR: Leslie S. Richards, General Manager, Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority (SEPTA), Philadelphia
EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR: Victoria Sheehan, Transportation Research Board, Washington, DC
MEMBERS
Michael F. Ableson, CEO, Arrival Automotive–North America, Detroit, MI
James F. Albaugh, President and CEO, The Boeing Company (retired), Scottsdale, AZ
Carlos M. Braceras, Executive Director, Utah Department of Transportation, Salt Lake City
Douglas C. Ceva, Vice President, Customer Lead Solutions, Prologis, Inc., Jupiter, FL
Nancy Daubenberger, Commissioner of Transportation, Minnesota Department of Transportation, St. Paul
Marie Therese Dominguez, Commissioner, New York State Department of Transportation, Albany
Garrett Eucalitto, Commissioner, Connecticut Department of Transportation, Newington
Chris T. Hendrickson, Hamerschlag University Professor of Engineering Emeritus, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA
Randell Iwasaki, President and CEO, Iwasaki Consulting Services, Walnut Creek, CA
Ashby Johnson, Executive Director, Capital Area Metropolitan Planning Organization (CAMPO), Austin, TX
Joel M. Jundt, Secretary of Transportation, South Dakota Department of Transportation, Pierre
Hani S. Mahmassani, W.A. Patterson Distinguished Chair in Transportation; Director, Transportation Center, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL
Scott C. Marler, Director, Iowa Department of Transportation, Ames
Ricardo Martinez, Adjunct Professor of Emergency Medicine, Emory University School of Medicine, Decatur, GA
Michael R. McClellan, Vice President, Strategic Planning, Norfolk Southern Corporation, Atlanta, GA
Russell McMurry, Commissioner, Georgia Department of Transportation, Atlanta
Craig E. Philip, Research Professor and Director, VECTOR, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN
Steward T.A. Pickett, Distinguished Senior Scientist, Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, Millbrook, NY
Susan A. Shaheen, Professor and Co-director, Transportation Sustainability Research Center, University of California, Berkeley
Marc Williams, Executive Director, Texas Department of Transportation, Austin
EX OFFICIO MEMBERS
Michael R. Berube, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Sustainable Transportation, U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, DC
Shailen Bhatt, Administrator, Federal Highway Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation, Washington, DC
Amit Bose, Administrator, Federal Railroad Administration, Washington, DC
Tristan Brown, Deputy Administrator, Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation, Washington, DC
Steven Cliff, Executive Officer, California Air Resources Board, Sacramento
Rand Ghayad, Senior Vice President, Association of American Railroads, Washington, DC
LeRoy Gishi, Chief, Division of Transportation, Bureau of Indian Affairs, U.S. Department of the Interior, Germantown, MD
William H. Graham, Jr. (Major General, U.S. Army), Deputy Commanding General for Civil and Emergency Operations, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Washington, DC
Robert C. Hampshire, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology, U.S. Department of Transportation, Washington, DC
Zahra “Niloo” Parvinashtiani, Engineer, Mobility Consultant Solutions, Iteris Inc., Fairfax, VA, and Chair, TRB Young Members Coordinating Council
Sophie Shulman, Deputy Administrator, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, DC
Karl Simon, Director, Transportation and Climate Division, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC
Paul P. Skoutelas, President and CEO, American Public Transportation Association, Washington, DC
Polly Trottenberg, Deputy Secretary of Transportation, U.S. Department of Transportation, Washington, DC
Jim Tymon, Executive Director, American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, Washington, DC
Veronica Vanterpool, Acting Administrator, Federal Transit Administration, Washington, DC
Michael Whitaker, Administrator, Federal Aviation Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation, Washington, DC
Vinn White, Deputy Administrator, Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration, Washington, DC
___________________
* Membership as of August 2024.
NATIONAL COOPERATIVE HIGHWAY RESEARCH PROGRAM
NCHRP RESEARCH REPORT 1131
Flood Forecasting for
Transportation Resilience
A GUIDE
Mathew Mampara
Seth Lawler
Katie Gronsky
Ashley Gordon
Emily Mills
Max Kipp
DEWBERRY ENGINEERS INC.
Fairfax, VA
Subscriber Categories
Hydraulics and Hydrology • Planning and Forecasting • Transportation, General
Research sponsored by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration
NATIONAL COOPERATIVE HIGHWAY RESEARCH PROGRAM
Systematic, well-designed, and implementable research is the most effective way to solve many problems facing state departments of transportation (DOTs) administrators and engineers. Often, highway problems are of local or regional interest and can best be studied by state DOTs individually or in cooperation with their state universities and others. However, the accelerating growth of highway transportation results in increasingly complex problems of wide interest to highway authorities. These problems are best studied through a coordinated program of cooperative research.
Recognizing this need, the leadership of the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) in 1962 initiated an objective national highway research program using modern scientific techniques—the National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP). NCHRP is supported on a continuing basis by funds from participating member states of AASHTO and receives the full cooperation and support of the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), United States Department of Transportation, under Agreement No. 693JJ31950003.
The Transportation Research Board (TRB) of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine was requested by AASHTO to administer the research program because of TRB’s recognized objectivity and understanding of modern research practices. TRB is uniquely suited for this purpose for many reasons: TRB maintains an extensive committee structure from which authorities on any highway transportation subject may be drawn; TRB possesses avenues of communications and cooperation with federal, state, and local governmental agencies, universities, and industry; TRB’s relationship to the National Academies is an insurance of objectivity; and TRB maintains a full-time staff of specialists in highway transportation matters to bring the findings of research directly to those in a position to use them.
The program is developed on the basis of research needs identified by chief administrators and other staff of the highway and transportation departments, by committees of AASHTO, and by the FHWA. Topics of the highest merit are selected by the AASHTO Special Committee on Research and Innovation (R&I), and each year R&I’s recommendations are proposed to the AASHTO Board of Directors and the National Academies. Research projects to address these topics are defined by NCHRP, and qualified research agencies are selected from submitted proposals. Administration and surveillance of research contracts are the responsibilities of the National Academies and TRB.
The needs for highway research are many, and NCHRP can make significant contributions to solving highway transportation problems of mutual concern to many responsible groups. The program, however, is intended to complement, rather than to substitute for or duplicate, other highway research programs.
NCHRP RESEARCH REPORT 1131
Project 20-59(53)A
ISSN 2572-3766 (Print)
ISSN 2572-3774 (Online)
ISBN 978-0-309-72872-0
Digital Object Identifier: 10.17226/28022
Library of Congress Control Number 2024949146
© 2024 by the National Academy of Sciences. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and the graphical logo are trademarks of the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
COPYRIGHT INFORMATION
Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their materials and for obtaining written permissions from publishers or persons who own the copyright to any previously published or copyrighted material used herein.
Cooperative Research Programs (CRP) grants permission to reproduce material in this publication for classroom and not-for-profit purposes. Permission is given with the understanding that none of the material will be used to imply TRB, AASHTO, APTA, FAA, FHWA, FTA, GHSA, or NHTSA endorsement of a particular product, method, or practice. It is expected that those reproducing the material in this document for educational and not-for-profit uses will give appropriate acknowledgment of the source of any reprinted or reproduced material. For other uses of the material, request permission from CRP.
Cover photo credit: Javier Quiroga
NOTICE
The research report was reviewed by the technical panel and accepted for publication according to procedures established and overseen by the Transportation Research Board and approved by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine.
The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied in this report are those of the researchers who performed the research and are not necessarily those of the Transportation Research Board; the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; the FHWA; or the program sponsors.
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NATIONAL COOPERATIVE HIGHWAY RESEARCH PROGRAM
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COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAMS
CRP STAFF FOR NCHRP RESEARCH REPORT 1131
Monique R. Evans, Director, Cooperative Research Programs
Waseem Dekelbab, Deputy Director, Cooperative Research Programs, and Manager, National Cooperative Highway Research Program
Yi Zhao, Senior Program Officer
LaKeisha Frager, Senior Program Assistant
Natalie Barnes, Director of Publications
Heather DiAngelis, Associate Director of Publications
Doug English , Senior Editor
NCHRP PROJECT 20-59(53)A PANEL
Field of Special Projects
Saul A. Nuccitelli, Texas Water Development Board, Austin, TX (Chair)
David Richard Claman, Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), Ames, IA
Silvana V. Croope, System and Technology Resilience Solutions, Tuscaloosa, AL
Christopher R. Engelbrecht, Missouri Department of Transportation, Jefferson City, MO
Gregory M. Khirallah, Jacobs Engineering Group Inc., Boston, MA
Herby Gerard Lissade, The Interwest Consulting Group, West Sacramento, CA
Ezekiel O. T. Peters, Metropolitan State University of Denver, Denver, CO
Joseph P. Scannell, USEngineering Solutions Corporation, Hartford, CT
Elizabeth Habic, FHWA Liaison
Marie C. Peppler, U.S. Geological Survey Liaison
Victor T. Hom, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Liaison
Chad Berginnis, Association of State Floodplain Managers (ASFPM) Liaison
Robert A. Braidwood, Chesapeake Fire Department Liaison
Gregory G. Hogan, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Liaison
Liana Z. Razafindrazay, World Bank Liaison
Roger K. Rieger, InfraGard National Members Alliance Liaison
FOREWORD
By Yi Zhao
Staff Officer
Transportation Research Board
NCHRP Research Report 1131: Flood Forecasting for Transportation Resilience: A Guide presents technical resources and organizational insights that support state departments of transportation (DOTs) in advancing their flood forecasting capabilities. The guide was developed with input from state DOT partners that was collected via a survey that included questions on business processes, preparedness, and data requirements necessary to build a robust and resilient flood forecasting capability. The guide will assist transportation agencies and other organizations in identifying and strengthening their flood forecasting capabilities in five key areas: flood data foundations, monitoring, operations, communications, and participating in a community of practice.
Many DOTs currently utilize available data and technology to support decision-making during flood events. However, even DOTs with the most advanced systems have expressed the need for more efficient prediction of the timing, magnitude, and location of flooding, as well as the anticipated impacts on infrastructure, particularly in areas without monitoring gauges. While experimental products and emerging research offer promising opportunities for developing high-quality hydrometeorological projections and flood forecasts, there remains a critical need for frameworks and guidance to enhance DOT flood-event decision-making.
Under NCHRP Project 20-59(53)A, “A Guide to Flood Forecasting for Transportation Resilience,” Dewberry Engineers Inc. was asked to develop a practitioners’ guide to build capabilities for transportation agencies to:
- Evaluate current capabilities, identify goals, and leverage existing data;
- Identify tools and tactics to support DOTs in getting started with flood forecasting;
- Enhance capabilities to meet goals or fit flood forecasting into their existing operations;
- Prioritize where to invest their time in building capabilities;
- Build partnerships and get support from leadership;
- Onboard staff to a flood forecasting team; and
- Inspire DOT staff to join a community of practice.
NCHRP Project 20-59(53)A built on the findings from the previous NCHRP Project 20-59(53), which assessed state DOTs’ abilities to engage with flood forecasting systems and identified key technological and capacity gaps. Based on the gaps identified, NCHRP Project 20-59(53)A focused on addressing the identified challenges by working closely with multiple state DOT partners to develop new use cases and processes. These efforts included identifying critical locations, determining the associated impact thresholds, and assigning specific roles and responsibilities within the DOT.
The results of NCHRP Project 20-59(53)A provide insights into the business processes, preparedness measures, and data requirements for establishing effective flood forecasting capabilities for transportation resilience. The guide has been developed as a direct outcome of these efforts and is intended to assist transportation agencies in enhancing their flood forecasting capabilities and improving resilience against flood events.
Supplemental to this report are a future research needs memo and a presentation providing an overview of the research findings. These can be found on the National Academies Press webpage for NCHRP Research Report 1131: Flood Forecasting for Transportation Resilience: A Guide (https://doi.org/10.17226/28022) under “Resources.”
AUTHOR ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, U.S. Geological Survey, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and Federal Highway Administration provided critical insights that guided this work.
Since the inception of this project, state departments of transportation (DOTs) and partners have been essential to informing the work and steering it to ensure its relevance for flood forecast practitioners. The research team would like to recognize the following DOTs for their participation in this research effort:
- California Department of Transportation
- Colorado Department of Transportation
- Kansas Department of Transportation
- Minnesota Department of Transportation
- Missouri Department of Transportation
- Nebraska Department of Transportation
- North Carolina Department of Transportation
- Ohio Department of Transportation
- Virginia Department of Transportation
- Washington Department of Transportation
The research reported herein was performed under NCHRP Project 20-59(53)A by Dewberry Engineers Inc. Mathew Mampara, P.E., was the Principal Investigator. The other authors of this report are Dr. Seth Lawler, Katie Gronsky, Ashley Gordon, Emily Mills, and Max Kipp, P.E.
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CONTENTS
1.1 Flood Forecasting Overview and State of Practice
1.2 Who Should Use This Guide?
1.3 How to Navigate This Guide
2.5 Use and Management of Data Outputs
3.3 Developing a Monitoring Plan
4.3 Connecting Forecasts to Action
4.4 Response During a Flood Event
5.4 Communication Tools and Resources
Chapter 6 Community of Practice
