Economic and Social Mobility

New Directions for Data, Research, and Policy

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H. Luke Shaefer, Florencia Torche, Malay K. Majmundar, and David Johnson, Editors

Committee on a Research Agenda for Improving Economic and Social Mobility in the United States

Committee on Population

Committee on National Statistics

Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

Consensus Study Report

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This activity was supported by a grant from the Gates Foundation (#INV-033351) to the National Academy of Sciences, with additional support from the National Academy of Sciences W. K. Kellogg Foundation Fund. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project.

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Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2025. Economic and Social Mobility: New Directions for Data, Research, and Policy. Washington, DC: National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/28456.

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COMMITTEE ON A RESEARCH AGENDA FOR IMPROVING ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL MOBILITY IN THE UNITED STATES

H. LUKE SHAEFER (Chair), Hermann and Amalie Kohn Professor of Social Justice and Social Policy, University of Michigan

FLORENCIA TORCHE (Vice Chair), Edwards S. Sanford Professor of Public and International Affairs and Sociology, Princeton University

MARTHA J. BAILEY, Professor of Economics, University of California, Los Angeles

LAWRENCE M. BERGER, Vilas Distinguished Achievement Professor, University of Wisconsin–Madison

TYSON H. BROWN, W.L.F. Associate Professor of Sociology, Duke University

JOHNAVAE CAMPBELL, Manager of Child Welfare and Education, ICF International, Inc.

STEFANIE A. DELUCA, James Coleman Professor of Sociology and Social Policy, Johns Hopkins University

SUSAN MARIE DYNARSKI, Patricia Albjerg Graham Professor of Education, Harvard University

DAVID B. GRUSKY, Edward Ames Edmond Professor of Sociology, Stanford University

KATHLEEN MULLAN HARRIS, James E. Haar Distinguished Professor of Sociology, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

FABIAN T. PFEFFER, Professor of Sociology, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Germany

PATRICK SHARKEY, William S. Tod Professor of Sociology and Public Affairs, Princeton University

MARTA TIENDA, Maurice P. During ’22 Professor in Demographic Studies, Princeton University

KENNETH R. TROSKE, Richard W. and Janis H. Furst Endowed Chair of Economics, University of Kentucky

Study Staff

MALAY K. MAJMUNDAR, Study Director

ILIYA GUTIN, Program Officer (until June 2024)

DAVID JOHNSON, Senior Program Officer (from April 2024 until April 2025)

ANTHONY S. MANN, Senior Program Associate

COMMITTEE ON POPULATION

ANNE R. PEBLEY (Chair), Distinguished Professor Emerita of Community Health Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles

EMILY M. AGREE, Research Professor, Johns Hopkins University

ALLISON E. AIELLO, James S. Jackson Healthy Longevity Professor of Epidemiology, Columbia University

RANDALL Q. K. AKEE, Associate Professor of Public Policy, University of California, Los Angeles

DEBORAH BALK, Professor, Baruch College of the City University of New York

COURTNEY C. COILE, William R. Kenan, Jr., Professor of Economics, Wellesley College

SONALDE DESAI, Distinguished University Professor, University of Maryland

KATHARINE M. DONATO, Donald G. Herzberg Professor of International Migration, Georgetown University

TOD G. HAMILTON, Professor of Sociology, Princeton University

SEEMA JAYACHANDRAN, Professor of Economics and Public Affairs, Princeton University

KENNETH LANGA, Cyrus Sturgis Professor of Medicine, University of Michigan

TREVON D. LOGAN, Hazel C. Youngberg Distinguished Professor of Economics, The Ohio State University

JENNA NOBLES, Professor of Demography, University of California, Berkeley

FERNANDO RIOSMENA, Professor of Sociology and Demography, The University of Texas at San Antonio

DAVID T. TAKEUCHI, Associate Dean for Faculty Excellence, University of Washington

Staff

MALAY K. MAJMUNDAR, Director

COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL STATISTICS

KATHARINE G. ABRAHAM (Chair), Distinguished University Professor of Economics, University of Maryland, College Park

MICK P. COUPER, Research Professor Emeritus, University of Michigan

WILLIAM (SANDY) A. DARITY, JR., Samuel DuBois Cook Distinguished Professor of Public Policy, Duke University

ROBERT M. GOERGE, Senior Research Fellow, NORC at the University of Chicago

ERICA L. GROSHEN, Senior Labor Market Advisor, Cornell University

ROEE GUTMAN, Professor of Biostatistics, Brown University

COLLEEN M. HEFLIN, Professor of Public Administration and International Affairs, Syracuse University

DANIEL E. HO, William Benjamin Scott and Luna M. Scott Professor of Law, Stanford Law School

HILARY W. HOYNES, Chancellor’s Professor of Economics and Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley

HOSAGRAHAR V. JAGADISH, Edgar F. Codd Distinguished University Professor, University of Michigan

SHARON LOHR, Emeritus Professor, Arizona State University

LLOYD B. POTTER, Texas State Demographer, University of Texas at San Antonio

NELA RICHARDSON, Chief Economist, ADP Research Institute

ELIZABETH A. STUART, Frank Hurley and Catharine Dorrier Professor, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health

FLORENCIA TORCHE, Edwards S. Sanford Professor of International Affairs and Sociology, Princeton University

SALIL VADHAN, Vicky Joseph Professor of Computer Science and Applied Mathematics, Harvard University

Staff

MELISSA CHIU, Senior Board Director

CONSTANCE F. CITRO, Senior Scholar

BRIAN HARRIS-KOJETIN, Senior Scholar

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Reviewers

This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process.

We thank the following individuals for their review of this report:

ANNA AIZER, Brown University

DIERDRE BLOOME, Harvard University

JENNIE E. BRAND, University of California, Los Angeles

ANNE CASE, Princeton University

SIWEI CHENG, New York University

MICK P. COUPER, University of Michigan

WILLIAM A. DARITY, Duke University

KATHRYN EDIN, Princeton University

MARGARET R. JONES, U.S. Census Bureau

KATHERINE MAGNUSSON, University of Wisconsin–Madison

STEFANIE MOULTON, The Ohio State University

XI SONG, The University of Pennsylvania

Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of this report nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this report was overseen by JUDITH A. SELTZER, University of California, Los Angeles, and ROBERT A. MOFFITT, Johns Hopkins University. They were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies.

Contents

Preface

Summary

1 Introduction

CHARGE TO THE STUDY COMMITTEE

DEFINITIONS: WHAT IS MOBILITY AND HOW IS IT MEASURED?

INTERGENERATIONAL MOBILITY AND ECONOMIC INEQUALITY

MOBILITY IS NOT WITHOUT RISKS

KINDS OF EVIDENCE ABOUT MOBILITY CONSIDERED IN THE REPORT

CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR THE ANALYSIS OF MOBILITY

KEY DOMAINS

ORGANIZATION OF THE REPORT

2 Early Life and Family

THE CIRCUMSTANCES OF PREGNANCY

FAMILY CIRCUMSTANCES AT BIRTH AND SUBSEQUENT FAMILY EXPERIENCES

PARENTING, THE CAREGIVING ENVIRONMENT, AND CHILD DEVELOPMENT

IMPLICATIONS OF SOCIOECONOMIC DIFFERENCES IN PARENTING

EFFICACY OF EARLY LIFE AND FAMILY POLICIES AND PROGRAMS IN SHAPING THE DETERMINANTS OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL MOBILITY

DATA LIMITATIONS AND OPPORTUNITIES

SUMMARY, KEY CONCLUSIONS, AND RECOMMENDATIONS

3 Space and Place

SPACE AND MOBILITY

MECHANISMS LINKING SPACE AND ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL MOBILITY

IMPLICATIONS FOR SOCIAL POLICY

A FORWARD-LOOKING SCIENCE OF SPACE AND MOBILITY

SUMMARY, KEY CONCLUSIONS, AND RECOMMENDATIONS

4 Postsecondary Education

POSTSECONDARY ATTAINMENT IN THE UNITED STATES: TRENDS AND DISPARITIES IN ACCESS AND RETURNS

THE STRUCTURE OF POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION AND INTERGENERATIONAL MOBILITY

VARIATION ACROSS POSTSECONDARY INSTITUTIONS: RESOURCES, GOVERNANCE, AND GRADUATION RATES

THE FUNDING OF POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION IN THE UNITED STATES AND THE GROWING IMPORTANCE OF LOANS

POSTSECONDARY EDUCATON: BALANCING RISKS AND RETURNS

FROM DEMAND SIDE TO SUPPLY SIDE: RESEARCH ON IMPROVING COLLEGE QUALITY

ALTERNATIVE TRANSITIONS AND PATHWAYS TO THE LABOR MARKET

SUMMARY, KEY CONCLUSIONS, AND RECOMMENDATIONS

5 Wealth, Credit, and Debt

WEALTH

CREDIT AND DEBT

POLICY IMPLICATIONS

SUMMARY, KEY CONCLUSIONS, AND RECOMMENDATIONS

6 Data Infrastructure

CURRENTLY AVAILABLE DATA RESOURCES

DATA RESOURCES UNDER DEVELOPMENT

REMAINING DATA SHORTFALLS

DISSEMINATION AND ACCESS

SUMMARY, KEY CONCLUSIONS, AND RECOMMENDATIONS

ANNEX: GLOSSARY OF SELECTED TERMS

7 New Directions for Research and Policy

EARLY LIFE AND FAMILY

SPACE AND PLACE

POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION

WEALTH, CREDIT, AND DEBT

DATA INFRASTRUCTURE

NATIONAL MOBILITY CENTER

CONCLUSION

References

Appendix Biographical Sketches of Committee Members

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Boxes, Figures, and Tables

BOXES

1-1 Measuring Relative Mobility

2-1 Child Support and Mobility

4-1 PreK–12 Education and Economic and Social Mobility

4-2 Linking Administrative and Survey Data to Track Educational Mobility in the United States

4-3 What About Elite Colleges?

4-4 Enlistment in the U.S. Military as a Pathway to Upward Mobility

FIGURES

1-1 International comparisons of absolute upward mobility

1-2 International comparisons of relative mobility (intergenerational income elasticity)

1-3 Status-attainment model of intergenerational mobility

1-4 Life course–ecosocial framework to examine model of intergenerational mobility

2-1 Lifetime determinants of economic and social mobility

Preface

The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (National Academies) was solicited by the Gates Foundation to prepare a consensus study report on developing a research agenda for improving economic and social mobility in the United States. To carry out this task, the National Academies negotiated a statement of work and appointed the Committee on a Research Agenda for Improving Economic and Social Mobility in the United States. The study committee included 14 experts with backgrounds in areas such as economics, sociology, demography, statistics and methodology, public policy, and evaluation. The work of the study committee was carried out under the National Academies’ standing Committee on Population and Committee on National Statistics in accordance with institutional procedures.¹ The committee began its work in April 2023. The bulk of the committee’s information gathering and synthesis was completed by December 2024, and the final edits and revisions to the report were incorporated by June 2025.

This report would not have been possible without the contributions of many people. Special thanks go to the members of the study committee, who dedicated extensive time, thought, and energy to this task.

The committee received useful information and insights from presentations by outside experts at open sessions of committee meetings. We thank Gregory Acs (Urban Institute), Greg Duncan (University of California, Irvine), Kathryn Anne Edwards (economic policy consultant), Jacob Hacker (Yale University), Kristen Harknett (University of California, San

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¹ https://www.nationalacademies.org/about/our-study-process

Francisco), Catherine Harvey (Urban Institute), Ariel Kalil (The University of Chicago), Leslie McCall (Graduate Center, City University of New York), Suresh Naidu (Columbia University), Claudia Solari (Urban Institute), Stefanie Stantcheva (Harvard University), Margery Austin Turner (Urban Institute), and Christina Weiland (University of Michigan). Thanks are also due to Arne Kalleberg (The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill), who provided additional guidance to the committee on labor markets; and to Claire Daviss (Stanford University) and Hye Jee Kim (Stanford University), who provided valuable assistance conducting literature reviews and creating figures for the report.

Several staff members of the National Academies also made significant contributions to the report. Iliya Gutin provided valuable research and writing assistance and helped manage the committee’s deliberation process. David Johnson made important contributions to the content of several report chapters and helped guide the report through the review process. Anthony Mann made sure that the committee meetings ran smoothly, assisted in preparing the manuscript, and provided key administrative and logistical support throughout the project. Thanks are also due to Kirsten Sampson Snyder for managing the report review process; Bea Porter for managing the report production process; and Melissa Chiu, director of the Committee on National Statistics, for providing overall guidance and oversight. Finally, we thank Allison Boman for her skillful editing.

H. Luke Shaefer, Chair

Florencia Torche, Vice Chair

Malay K. Majmundar, Study Director

Committee on a Research Agenda for Improving Economic and Social Mobility in the United States

June 2025