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Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change (2016)

Chapter: Appendix B: Workshop Agenda

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Previous Chapter: Appendix A: Statement of Task

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Suggested Citation: "Appendix B: Workshop Agenda." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21852.

APPENDIX B

Workshop Agenda

Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change Attribution
Workshop Agenda
October 21-22, 2015
Keck Center
500 Fifth Street, NW, Washington, DC

WORKSHOP GOALS

Inform the committee as they write their report on the science of attribution of specific extreme weather events to human-caused climate change and natural variability.

Specifically, the committee will:

Provide an assessment of current scientific understanding and capabilities for attribution of specific extreme weather events to climate change.
Provide guidance about the robustness of extreme event attribution science. The guidance should discriminate among different attribution approaches and different classes of extreme events, and it should consider various characteristics of the analysis (e.g., data coverage and quality, model performance, etc.).
Identify research priorities for further development of the approaches.

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 21, 2015

OPEN SESSION–Keck 103
12:00 P.M.	Lunch available to all participants
OPEN SESSION–Keck 100
1:00 P.M.	Welcoming remarks and introduction
	David Titley, Pennsylvania State University

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1:30 P.M.	Framing of event attribution questions and risk-based perspective for decision making
1:30 P.M.	Alexis Hannart, National Center for Scientific Research (France)
2:00 P.M.	Background and overview on climate attribution of extreme events
2:00 P.M.	Friederike Otto, University of Oxford
2:30 P.M.	Break
3:00 P.M.	Panel on Methods and Uncertainties
	Moderated by: Ted Shepherd, University of Reading
	Panelists will have 5 min for a brief presentation; remaining time to be used for discussion.
	Observed climate change, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (WebEx) Coupled ocean/atmosphere climate models, David Karoly, University of Melbourne (WebEx) Large ensembles, Myles Allen, University of Oxford SSTs and sea ice, Judith Perlwitz, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory Circulation analogs, Pascal Yiou, Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission (France) Building confidence, Leonard Smith, University of Oxford
5:00 P.M.	General Discussion
	(includes questions/comments from Webinar participants)
	Moderated by: John Walsh, University of Alaska, Fairbanks
5:45 P.M.	Adjourn
6:15 P.M.	Reception [Keck Atrium]

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 22, 2015

OPEN SESSION–Keck 100
9:30 A.M	Panel on Attribution of Specific Weather Phenomena
	Moderated by: Phil Mote, Oregon State University

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	Panelists will have 5 min for a brief presentation; remaining time to be used for discussion. Extreme heat and cold events, Ken Kunkel, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Centers for Environmental Information/North Carolina State University Drought events, Marty Hoerling, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory Wildfires, Eric Kasischke, National Aeronautics and Space Administration/University of Maryland Extreme rain events/flooding, Michael Wehner, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Extreme snow/freezing rain events, Jay Lawrimore, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Centers for Environmental Information Hurricanes, Tom Knutson, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Tornadoes, Jeff Trapp, University of Illinois Extreme sea level rise events, William Sweet, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Ocean Service
10:45 A.M.	Break
11:15 A.M.	Panel discussion continues
12:15 P.M.	Working lunch
1:15 P.M.	Break out group session to identify opportunities and challenges on the following topics:
1:15 P.M.	Uncertainty quantification: assessing model quality uncertainty quantification given a reasonable model how can event attribution be evaluated Framing of event attribution questions (Are we asking the right questions?) and how to describe and quantify a potential anthropogenic component to the meteorological causes of an extreme event, given that natural variability is generally playing a dominant role. Timescale/operational event attribution (e.g., How does the timescale of an event impact our ability to attribute the event? On what timelines can event attribution studies be conducted? How does the timescale of an event affect the timeline on which attribution studies can be conducted?).

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3:15 P.M	Break (Time for Rapporteurs to collect their thoughts)
3:45 P.M.	Rapporteurs report back in plenary
4:15 P.M.	Invited responses to the workshop discussions
4:15 P.M.	Kathy Jacobs, University of Arizona
5:00 P.M	Wrap up
5:00 P.M	David Titley, Pennsylvania State University
5:30 P.M.	Adjourn