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Introduction

The impacts of climate change overseas pose a significant and cross-cutting threat to the security of the United States (USGCRP, 2018; NASEM, 2021; NIC, 2021a, 2021b). Collectively, these impacts threaten critical natural and societal systems; undermine human health and wellbeing; and produce risks that compound and cascade across societal sectors and borders (IPCC, 2022; O’Neill et al., 2022). Climate change increasingly drives food and water insecurity, illness and premature death, and involuntary migration and displacement, and it is amplifying existing socioeconomic, political, and cultural drivers of conflict and contestation (Cissé et al., 2022; IPCC, 2022). These impacts affect the security interests of the United States and its allies and partners by disrupting economic and trade linkages, undermining international development investments, and exacerbating geopolitical flashpoints (USGCRP, 2018; NIC, 2021b).

The U.S. Intelligence Community (IC) is responsible for providing policymakers with analyses and assessments that can illuminate threats to U.S. security. In its most recent Global Trends report, the National Intelligence Council (NIC) framed climate change as a “shared global challenge” and one that is “likely to exacerbate food and water insecurity for poor countries, increase migration, precipitate new health challenges, and contribute to biodiversity losses” (NIC, 2021a). The most recent National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) states that climate change “will increasingly exacerbate risks to US national security interests” (NIC, 2021b).

For more than a decade, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (National Academies) have convened activities to explore the climate and security nexus. One such activity is the National Academies Climate Security Roundtable (CSRT or Roundtable), which was established by the U.S. Congress in 2021 as a partnership between the National Academies and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI). The Roundtable leverages the unique convening power of the National Academies to create a platform for federal officials to engage experts from academia, the private sector, and civil society on a wide range of climate and national security issues (see Appendix A for more detail on the Roundtable and its work).

The “Climate Security in South Asia” workshop (hereafter, workshop) summarized in this proceedings was convened under the auspices of the CSRT. The workshop’s overarching goal was to advance an integrative “systems” understanding of climate security risk in South Asia and the basic capacities and capabilities that could support a more integrative analysis of climate security in the region. This introductory chapter explains the motivation behind the selection of South Asia as the regional focus, presents some relevant perspectives on climate security analysis from the Roundtable’s previous discussions, and describes the basic organization of the workshop and this proceedings.

CLIMATE AND SECURITY IN SOUTH ASIA—MOTIVATION FOR THE WORKSHOP

In the workshop’s opening session, a representative from ODNI¹ explained the reasoning behind the Roundtable’s choice of South Asia as the topic for the workshop. The representative

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¹ This workshop included participants from members of the IC. To abide by legal requirements to protect the identities of IC officers, wherever a specific attribution other than “workshop participant” is needed, this proceedings will use “member of the IC” or “representative of Agency X.”

noted that the region—comprising Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka (see map in Figure 1-1)—presents a unique confluence of major climate hazards and key U.S. security concerns:

• From a weather and climate standpoint: South Asia experiences a wide range of hazards (Box 1-1). These include extreme events such as the recent heatwaves, droughts, storms, and floods that have upended the lives and livelihoods of millions of people, as well as longer-term trends of warming temperature, increased and more variable precipitation, and sea-level rise that will increasingly expose people and society to adverse effects.
• From a demographic and socioeconomic standpoint: South Asia is experiencing rapid transformations and progress, even as fundamental challenges persist (Box 1-2). The region has seen strong economic growth in recent years, while also suffering from persistent poverty and inequality, poor physical and social infrastructure, and poor health and educational outcomes. Ongoing demographic trends, particularly rapid population growth² and urbanization³, are expected to aggravate existing problems.
• From a security standpoint: South Asia is the setting for a range of social and political dynamics that impact U.S. interests (Box 1-3). Among these are a history of conflict at national and subnational levels, long-simmering regional rivalries, and the imprint of global geopolitics. South Asian states are becoming key U.S. trading partners, as well as targets for Chinese and Russian influence. In addition, Pakistan and India, both nuclear powers, as well as Bangladesh were identified in the most recent U.S. National Intelligence Estimate as countries whose vulnerability to climate impacts is particularly consequential to U.S. security interests (NIC, 2021b).

KEY PERSPECTIVES FROM THE CLIMATE SECURITY ROUNDTABLE

A central aim of the CSRT’s work has been to advance an integrative understanding of climate-related security risk—one that considers the diverse interactions between nature and society and illuminates the pathways along which climate-related security risks can evolve. To help participants organize their discussions at the South Asia workshop, the co-chairs and staff of the Roundtable summarized some of the key themes that have emerged from its previous discussions, including perspectives on systems approaches to climate security, conceptualization of complex risks, and the human dimensions of security⁴:

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² An important feature of population growth in the South Asia region is a “youth bulge”, which is a demographic pattern in which a high proportion of the population consists of young adults and children, increasing the number of working age individuals. If they can be fully engaged in society and employed, then the youth bulge will produce a demographic dividend. If not, then the youth bulge could produce a demographic bomb, with large numbers of young people frustrated by the lack of socioeconomic opportunity and potentially becoming a source of social and political instability (Hafeez and Safeeh, 2018).

³ The urban population in South Asian countries increased by 130 million in the first decade of the 2000’s. This growth is associated with rising GDP and lower rates of extreme poverty. However, urbanization in South Asia is also characterized by a relatively high degree of poor and pressures on land, housing, infrastructure, basic services, and the environment. (Ellis and Roberts, 2016).

⁴ This summary presents some key themes from previous discussions between CSRT members. It does not provide a comprehensive summary of these discussions and does not necessarily reflect a consensus view of the Roundtable or of the National Academies.

• The importance of a systems approach: A systems framework for climate security analysis considers the particular human and natural geographic setting for the analysis, as well as the influencing factors acting from outside the setting and the network interactions within the analytic setting (Figure 1-4). This approach is influenced by a multisectoral dynamics (MSD) perspective, which provides a useful approach to the various interactions and feedbacks between nature and society that produce security risks. MSD considers nature and society as systems of systems that are interconnected, interdependent, and co-evolving in relation to a set of dynamic influences and stressors (Reed et al., 2022).
• Conceptualizing complex risk: A useful conceptualization of risk is that it emerges from the dynamic interplay of several determining factors: hazards, exposure, and vulnerability, as well as the human responses that can modulate them (see Figure 1-5). The complex behavior of climate-related risks arises from interactions at multiple scales: the interplay of factors within a single risk determinant; the overlap between different determinants; and the aggregating, compounding, or cascading interactions between separate risks (Reisinger et al., 2020; Simpson et al., 2021). Risk applies to both impacts of and responses to climate change.

• Incorporating the human dimensions of security: Security is not simply the absence of conflict and instability; it is fundamentally founded on the health and well-being of individuals, communities, and societies. The national security implications of climate change thus largely rest on the dynamic interactions and feedbacks between climate and society. Understanding climate–society interactions requires a deep exploration of human motivations and behavior across scales.

ORGANIZATION OF THE WORKSHOP AND PROCEEDINGS

The National Academies hosted the “Climate Security in South Asia” workshop on October 26–27, 2022, at the National Academy of Sciences building in Washington, D.C., and virtually. The workshop was the first held under the auspices of the Climate Security Roundtable and was organized by an informal planning committee of Roundtable members and external experts tasked with designing the agenda and identifying speakers (Box 1-4).⁵ Over the course of two days,

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⁵ This proceedings has been prepared by the workshop rapporteurs as a factual summary of what occurred at the workshop. The planning committee’s role was limited to planning and convening the workshop. The views contained in the proceedings are those of individual workshop participants and do not necessarily represent the views of all workshop participants, the planning committee, or the National Academies.

participants engaged with invited speakers in panel sessions and with each other in plenary and small group discussions to explore the climate security landscape in South Asia, examine historical cases and future scenarios, consider analytical needs for assessing and anticipating climate security risk, and reflect on the climate security issues in the region.⁶

The South Asia climate security landscape contains a broad range of topics and issues, and the workshop case studies and scenarios initially focused on security challenges related to storms and water cycle extremes in the countries of Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan. In plenary and breakout sessions, participants broadened the discussion to consider how these specific examples might illuminate some of the more general aspects of climate change and security in the region. Participants identified some key elements of a “systems” framing for climate-related security risks; they discussed the particular climate-related security threats that are most pressing in South Asia; and they identified some basic analytic capabilities and capacities that could be used to analyze and anticipate those threats moving forward.

This proceedings summarizes the discussions at the workshop and is organized to reflect the major themes explored over the two days. Following the Introduction, Chapter 2 sets the stage by describing some underlying climate, development, and security challenges in South Asia. Chapter 3 explores historical case studies where climate change and response needs precipitated a security issue. Chapter 4 considers potential futures for climate change and how the response to it could precipitate a security issue. Chapter 5 considers the current tools for analyzing and forecasting climate-related risks. Finally, Chapter 6 reflects on some key systems elements, risk pathways, and examples of analytic needs.

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⁶ A detailed workshop agenda is available in Appendix B. Short biographies of workshop planning committee members and workshop speakers are in Appendixes C and D, respectively.