6
Reflecting on Climate Security Risk in South Asia

A central aim of the workshop, as expressed in its Statement of Task (Box 1-4), was to advance an integrative systems understanding of climate change and security in South Asia. Over the two days of the workshop, participants examined important underlying conditions and external factors influencing climate-related security risk; key internal systems, entities, and linkages that determine the pathways leading to climate-related security problems; and critical analytic capacity and capabilities to analyze climate security in the region.

EXAMPLES OF KEY ELEMENTS OF A SYSTEMS FRAMEWORK FOR CLIMATE SECURITY IN SOUTH ASIA

At the outset of the workshop, participants were introduced to a conceptual framework, previously developed by the CSRT, that comprises two key sets of factors that shape the evolution of climate-related security risk in a given setting (Figure 1-4). These include external influences and stressors that act from outside of the setting and the network interactions between the interconnected and interdependent systems and sectors within the setting. The discussions among workshop participants highlighted many examples of these key elements for South Asia (Figure 6-1).

With respect to the external influences and stressors that are most relevant to climate-related security risk in South Asian contexts, the discussions highlighted a range of environmental and non-environmental factors. The following list describes some of the main perspectives from participant discussions during the workshop:

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¹ This list is the rapporteurs’ summary of the points made by individual speakers, and the statements have not been endorsed or verified by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine.

• Environmental drivers of security risk in the region include climate change, ecosystem disruption, and pollution. Climate-related stressors that are most relevant to South Asia include extreme heat, drought, extreme precipitation, floods, and sea-level rise.
• Non-environmental drivers of security risk in the region include the influence of international economic and geopolitical processes, as well as of underlying demographic and socioeconomic conditions. Examples of economic and political influences that are most relevant to South Asia include China’s domestic and foreign policy actions, particularly related to climate and energy, and the potential trade-offs between global policies for decarbonization and sustainable development. Examples of relevant underlying conditions include ongoing population growth, urbanization, and technological transitions, as well as existing political, religious, and communal tensions in the region.
• Natural and societal teleconnections link variability within the region to changes occurring elsewhere in the world. As an example of a natural teleconnection, the impacts of climate-related stressors in South Asia are strongly modulated by global modes of climate variability—in particular, the interannual oscillations between El Niño and La Niña climate states. As an example of a societal teleconnection, prices for food and fuel in South Asia have been strongly impacted by the disruptions in global commodity markets and supply chains caused by political shocks such as the war in Ukraine.

With respect to the key network interactions within the South Asia region, workshop discussions highlighted the complex interdependence between infrastructure, governance, and socioeconomic systems, as well as between specific societal sectors in the region.

• The nexus of energy, agriculture, and water sectors, in particular, can play a critical role in shaping the evolution of climate-related security risk in South Asia. As an example,

• an energy transition that emphasizes biofuels would be expected to have large implications for food and water security in the region, through the potential displacement of food crops and increased agricultural demands on water resources.
• Aggregating, compounding, and cascading interactions between individual climate-related risks can further increase the overall risk to society from climate change. As an example, concurrent storm damage in urban and rural settings could produce an influx of migrants into cities, searching for new livelihoods, just as the urban centers no longer have adequate infrastructure to support those livelihoods. At the same time, loss of power, communications, and work in cities could reduce people’s ability to provide remittances to family in the country, undercutting an important line of support for rural communities.

EXAMPLES OF HIGH-PRIORITY CLIMATE SECURITY THREATS IN SOUTH ASIA

During the workshop, participants explored pressing threats and security risk pathways in the region. The following list describes some of the major themes that surfaced during those discussions:

• Societal transitions, both planned and unplanned, occurring in response to climate risks are an important driver of risk themselves. For instance, policy actions to mitigate GHG emissions and decarbonize societal sectors may create political conflict. As an example, one participant noted that Chinese commitments to reduce GHG emissions have spurred development of domestic hydroelectric power generation capacity, including along the Brahmaputra (Tsangpo) River, which has produced tensions with India. In addition, another participant noted that India’s own commitments to renewable energy generation, particularly through land-intensive solar energy developments, have created disputes between federal and local authorities.
• Risk pathways involving the impacts of climate hazards on livelihoods and community structures are particularly relevant to security analysis. In particular, the cascading impacts from humanitarian disasters are a concern, since they can push vulnerable people into “problematic pathways” involving isolation, alienation, radicalization, and/or mental illness. As an example, multiple participants noted that the communities affected by the 2022 floods in Pakistan were not just displaced from their homes but also experienced significant livelihood and educational disruptions. In the absence of strong social and governance structures, the potential has risen for victimization by, or recruitment into, terrorist and extremist organizations. Another participant noted that mistrust in public institutions combined with government failures to provide adequate emergency services have enabled alternative narratives to unfold around the disaster—in some cases through stories that the floods were caused by deliberate actions to release flood waters in the Indus River basin by upstream actors.

PARTICIPANT IDEAS FOR ANALYTICAL NEEDS

A running theme of workshop discussions concerned examples of the basic analytical needs for an integrative analysis of climate security in South Asia. The following list describes a few of the themes that surfaced during those discussions:

• A key area for security analysis is the development of datasets, tools, and techniques that are tailored to the South Asia setting. One participant emphasized the importance of analyses that describe the social environment—for example, through social network data—or detect or anticipate rare events—for example, through artificial intelligence and machine learning approaches. Multiple participants emphasized the need for analyses to integrate data and information at the subnational, local, and granular levels—including, in particular, spatially explicit data for describing the flow of people at fine temporal scales.
• Indicators and early warnings involve measurement of appropriate variables. Multiple participants noted that how climate impacts are measured can affect decisionmakers’ understanding of their security implications. As an example, multiple participants noted that measuring morbidity rather than mortality in relation to a cyclone may be more valuable for assessing the security implications of the disaster.