Workshop Overview

The impacts of climate change overseas pose a significant and cross-cutting threat to the security of the United States (USGCRP, 2018; NASEM, 2021; NIC, 2021a, 2021b). The South Asia region, in particular, presents a confluence of major climate impacts and key security challenges (IPCC, 2022; Shaw et al., 2022). From a weather and climate standpoint, the region experiences a wide range of hazards, such as the recent heatwaves, droughts, storms, and floods that have upended the lives and livelihoods of millions of people. From a demographic and socioeconomic standpoint, the region is experiencing rapid transformations and progress, even as fundamental challenges such as poverty and inequality persist. From a security standpoint, the region is the setting for a range of social and political dynamics that impact U.S. interests, including conflict at national and subnational levels; regional rivalries; and the imprint of global geopolitics.

On October 26–27, 2022, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (National Academies) convened a workshop to explore “Climate Security in South Asia.”¹ The workshop was the first held under the auspices of the National Academies Climate Security Roundtable. Over two days, workshop participants considered some of the underlying climate, development, and geopolitical dynamics at play in the South Asia region; they explored a set of historical case studies and future scenarios for climate change and security in South Asia; and they considered the available tools for analyzing and forecasting climate-related risks.

The South Asia climate security landscape encompasses a broad range of topics and issues, and the workshop case studies and scenarios initially focused on security challenges related to storms and water cycle extremes in the countries of Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan. In plenary and breakout sessions, participants broadened the discussion to consider how these specific examples might illuminate some of the more general aspects of climate change and security in the region. Participants identified some key elements of “systems thinking”² for climate-related security risks; they discussed the particular climate-related security threats that are most pressing in South Asia; and they identified some basic analytic capabilities and capacities that could be helpful to effectively analyze and anticipate those threats moving forward.

At the outset of the workshop, participants were also introduced to a conceptual framework, previously developed by the National Academies Climate Security Roundtable, that comprises two key sets of factors that shape the evolution of climate-related security risk in a given setting: external influences and stressors that act from outside of the setting and the internal network interactions between the interconnected and interdependent systems and sectors within the setting (see Chapter 6 for detailed examples).

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¹ This proceedings has been prepared by the workshop rapporteurs as a factual summary of what occurred at the workshop. The planning committee’s role was limited to planning and convening the workshop. The views contained in the proceedings are those of individual workshop participants and do not necessarily represent the views of all workshop participants, the planning committee, or the National Academies.

² The term “systems thinking” does not currently have a precise, agreed-upon definition. In the context of climate change, however, systems thinking generally recognizes that the complex and unpredictable nature of climate outcomes arises from the deep interconnections and interdependencies that exist both within and between the natural and societal components of the world, at all scales. Specifically, a systems approach to climate-related risks would consider the dynamic interactions and feedbacks among social, economic, political, and environmental factors that create the potential of harm to people and nature.

With respect to the external influences and stressors that are most relevant to climate-related security risk in South Asian contexts, workshop participants highlighted climate-related stressors such as extreme heat, drought, extreme precipitation, floods, and sea-level rise. Participants also highlighted non-environmental influences, such as international economic and geopolitical processes, as well as underlying demographic and socioeconomic conditions—for example, rapid population growth and urbanization.

With respect to the key network interactions within the South Asia region, workshop participants highlighted the complex interdependencies between infrastructure, governance, and socioeconomic systems, as well as between specific societal sectors in the region—particularly the food, water, and energy sectors. Participants also discussed aggregating, compounding, and cascading

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³ This list is the rapporteurs’ summary of some general perspectives expressed during the two days of workshop discussion. The statements do not represent a consensus view of the participants, and they have not been endorsed or verified by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine.

interactions between individual climate-related risks that can further increase the overall risk to society from climate change.

Finally, participants considered various potential security risk pathways in the region. Many participants focused attention on the risks stemming from societal transitions occurring in response to climate change—for example, the potential security challenges created by specific climate mitigation policy actions. Many participants also focused attention on the security implications of risk pathways involving the impacts of climate hazards on livelihoods and community structures—for example, the cascading humanitarian disasters that can push vulnerable people into “problematic pathways” involving isolation, alienation, radicalization, and/or mental illness.