Task 1:

The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM) will appoint a planning committee to organize a two-day unclassified workshop focused on methods for anticipating rare events of major significance. Rare events are characterized by a very low probability of occurrence. Such events include anthropogenic hazards (e.g. weapons of mass destruction) and natural catastrophic events (e.g. pandemics).

The workshop will examine and moderate cross disciplinary discussions on rare event prediction methods, techniques, and best practices. Invited presentations will focus on:

1. Reviewing existing rare event prediction methods and models across academic disciplines and organizations;
2. Exploring opportunities and challenges in existing rare event prediction frameworks in order to define future anticipatory models.

The unclassified workshop will bring together the private sector and academia to: (1) inform the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) and the national security community of salient methods to anticipate rare events and (2) synthesize cross-disciplinary knowledge to define future prediction and anticipatory models. The planning committee will develop the workshop agenda, select and invite speakers and discussants, and moderate the discussions. An unclassified proceedings of the presentations and discussions at the workshop will be prepared by a designated rapporteur in accordance with institutional guidelines. These proceedings may be used to guide the development of more detailed NASEM activities on this topic.

Task 2

The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM) will organize and convene a one-time classified workshop focused on anticipating rare events. Discussions and presentations will focus on:

1. Current rare event detection methods and future anticipatory models,
2. DTRA mission needs, capabilities, and rare event anticipatory models and,
3. Observations from the unclassified NASEM workshop on Anticipating Rare Events of Major Significance

A classified proceedings in brief of the presentations and discussions at the workshop will be prepared in accordance with NASEM institutional guidelines. An unclassified summary of the classified workshop will be prepared consistent with security review.