The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine will produce a rapid expert consultation focused on strengthening country-led approaches to generating population-based estimates of disease prevalence and incidence. This consultation will examine how to evolve and modernize established survey platforms, including Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), Population-based HIV Impact Assessments (PHIAs), Malaria Indicator Surveys (MIS), and tuberculosis prevalence surveys to meet current and future data needs. Drawing on available evidence, global experience, and expert judgement, the consultation will assess methodological, operational, and financial considerations for producing high-quality, nationally representative estimates of disease burden in a cost-efficient and sustainable manner. This includes evaluating traditional survey approaches, emerging alternatives, and complementary methodologies. Priority evaluation areas include HIV, TB, and malaria, with attention to cross-cutting approaches that can support multi-disease estimation, where appropriate.

The consultation will address the following:

• Key approaches to modernizing population-based survey platforms to improve the accuracy, timeliness, and cost-effectiveness of prevalence and incidence estimation;
• Noteworthy methodological innovations and alternatives to traditional large-scale surveys (e.g., sentinel surveillance, model-based estimation, integrated data) and their trade-offs;
• Opportunities and limitations of integrating multi-disease estimation within population-based surveys, with a focus on preserving statistical validity while improving efficiency;
• Strategies for supporting country ownership and sustainability of population-based estimation efforts, including financing models, institutional capacity, and alignment with national data priorities
• Illustrative examples of countries that have successfully adapted or evolved survey-based estimation approaches, and implied strategies for sustaining country ownership of population estimation systems within different resource and institutional capacity contexts.

This rapid expert consultation is intended to inform near-term decision-making and coordination. It will not include findings, conclusions, recommendations, or policy advice and will be conducted in accordance with institutional guidelines.