SEA CHANGE

2015-2025
Decadal Survey
of Ocean Sciences

Committee on Guidance for NSF on National Ocean Science Research Priorities: Decadal Survey of Ocean Sciences

Ocean Studies Board

Division of Earth and Life Studies

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
                          OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

Washington, D.C.

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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.

Funding for this study was provided by the National Science Foundation under grant number OCE-1341319. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.

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COMMITTEE ON GUIDANCE FOR NSF ON NATIONAL OCEAN SCIENCE RESEARCH PRIORITIES: DECADAL SURVEY FOR OCEAN SCIENCES

Shirley A. Pomponi, Co-Chair, Harbor Branch Oceanographic Institute-Florida Atlantic University, Fort Pierce

David W. Titley, Co-Chair, Pennsylvania State University, University Park

Edward Boyle, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge

Melbourne Briscoe, OceanGeeks, LLC, Alexandria, Virginia

Russ E. Davis, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California

Margo Edwards, University of Hawaii at Manoa

Mary (Missy) H. Feeley, ExxonMobil Exploration Company (retired), Houston, Texas

Donald Forsyth, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island

Peter Liss, University of East Anglia, United Kingdom, and Texas A&M University, College Station

Susan Lozier, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina

Roberta Marinelli, University of Southern California, Los Angeles

James J. McCarthy, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts

Alan Mix, Oregon State University, Corvallis

Steven A. Murawski, University of South Florida, St. Petersburg

Robert T. Paine, University of Washington, Seattle

Charles Paull, Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute, Moss Landing, California

Don Walsh, International Maritime Incorporated, Myrtle Point, Oregon

Bess B. Ward, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey

James A. Yoder, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts

William R. Young, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California

Ocean Studies Board Staff

Deborah Glickson, Study Director

Susan Roberts, Board Director

Payton Kulina, Senior Program Assistant

Stacee Karras, Research Associate

OCEAN STUDIES BOARD

Robert A. Duce, Chair, Texas A&M University, College Station

E. Virginia Armbrust, University of Washington, Seattle

Kevin R. Arrigo, Stanford University, California

Claudia Benitez-Nelson, University of South Carolina, Columbia

Edward A. Boyle, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge

Rita R. Colwell, University of Maryland, College Park

Sarah W. Cooksey, State of Delaware, Dover

Cortis K. Cooper, Chevron Corporation, San Ramon, California

Robert Hallberg, NOAA/GFDL and Princeton University, New Jersey

David Halpern, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California

Susan E. Humphris, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts

Bonnie J. McCay, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey

Steven A. Murawski, University of South Florida, St. Petersburg

John A. Orcutt, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California

H. Tuba Özkan-Haller, Oregon State University, Corvallis

Steven E. Ramberg, Penn State Applied Research Lab, Washington, DC

Martin D. Smith, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina

Margaret Spring, Monterey Bay Aquarium, Monterey, California

Don Walsh, International Maritime Incorporated, Myrtle Point, Oregon

Douglas Wartzok, Florida International University, Miami

Lisa D. White, University of California, Berkeley, and San Francisco State University

Staff

Susan Roberts, Board Director

Deborah Glickson, Senior Program Officer

Claudia Mengelt, Senior Program Officer

Stacee Karras, Research Associate

Pamela Lewis, Administrative Coordinator

Shubha Banskota, Financial Associate

Payton Kulina, Senior Program Assistant

Acknowledgments

This report was greatly enhanced by the efforts of those who participated in committee meetings, attended town halls, provided information to the committee, and assisted with successful meetings. The committee would like to acknowledge Art Allen (U.S. Coast Guard), Jon Alberts (University-National Oceanographic Laboratory System), Holly Bamford (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration [NOAA]), Anjuli Bamzai (National Science Foundation [NSF]), Jack Barth (Oregon State University), Jeff Bingham (congressional staff), Paula Bontempi (National Aeronautics and Space Administration [NASA]), Scott Borg (NSF), Natalie Bruso (University of Hawaii at Manoa), RADM Nevin Carr (retired, U.S. Navy), Charlie Chestnutt (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers), Tim Cowles (Ocean Leadership), Beth Curry (University of Washington Applied Physics Laboratory), Paul Cutler (NSF), John Delaney (University of Washington), Annette DeSilva (University-National Oceanographic Laboratory System), Tommy Dickey (University of California, Santa Barbara), Paul Digiacomo (NOAA’s Satellite and Information Service), Tom Drake (Office of Naval Research [ONR]), John Farrell (U.S. Arctic Research Commission), Sarah Giddings (Scripps Institution of Oceanography [SIO]), Peter Girguis (Harvard University), Rebecca Green (Bureau of Ocean Energy Management [BOEM]), John Haines (U.S. Geological Survey), Frank Herr (ONR), Susan Humphris (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution [WHOI]), Martin Jeffries (ONR), Walter Johnson (BOEM), Rebecca Lent (Marine Mammal Commission), Naomi Levine (University of Southern California), Eric Lindstrom (NASA), Kim Martini (University of Washington), Kathleen McNeil (NOAA/National Weather Service), Brian Melzian (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency), Richard Merrick (NOAA/National Marine Fisheries Service), Allison Miller (Schmidt Ocean Institute), Berrien Moore III (University of Oklahoma), John Orcutt (SIO), Peter Ortner (University of Miami), Leonard Pace (Schmidt Ocean Institute), Jamie Pierson (University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science), Al Plueddemann (WHOI), Helmut Portmann (NOAA National Data Buoy Center), David Score (NOAA), Simon Stephenson (NSF), Steven Squyres (Cornell University), Jason Sylvan (University of Southern California), Andrew Thompson (California Institute of Technology), Woody Turner (NASA), Jennifer Wade (NSF), Chuck Wilson (Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative), Carl Wunsch (Massachusetts Institute of Technology), Bill Zamer (NSF), and Victor Zykov (Schmidt Ocean Institute).

This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in their review of this report:

KEIR BECKER, University of Miami

CLAUDIA BENITEZ-NELSON, University of South Carolina

PETER BREWER, Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute

WILLIAM CURRY, Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences

KENDRA DALY, University of South Florida

EDWARD DELONG, University of Hawaii at Manoa

ROBERT DETRICK, Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology

CHRISTOPHER GARRETT, retired

JACQUELINE GREBMEIER, University of Maryland

STEVEN LOHRENZ, University of Massachusetts, Dartmouth

JAMES MCWILLIAMS, University of California, Los Angeles

TERRY PLANK, Columbia University

MARTIN VISBECK, Kiel University

ROBERT WINOKUR, retired

Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by David Karl, University of Hawaii at Manoa, appointed by the Division on Earth and Life Studies, and Michael Kavanaugh, Geosyntec Consultants, appointed by the Report Review Committee, who were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

Contents

Summary

Introduction

Background

Committee Process

References

1 21st-Century Achievements in Ocean Science

The Ocean Component of Climate Variability and Change

Biogeochemical and Ecological Dimensions of a Changing Ocean

Biodiversity, Complexity, and Dynamics of Ocean Ecosystems

The Seafloor Is Geologically, Physically, and Biologically Dynamic

New Technologies Enable Efficient Collection of Global Ocean Data

Collaborations Advance Oceanography Achievements

Analysis of the Scientific Accomplishments

References and Bibliography

2 Ocean Science Priorities for 2015-2025

Objectives

Approach

Priority Science Questions for 2015-2025

Interdisciplinary Science and Funding within NSF and OCE

Technology Development for the Next Decade

Would a Different Committee Have Chosen Different Priority Science Questions?

References and Bibliography

3 The Current Landscape: Alignment of Current Ocean Research Infrastructure with the Decadal Science Priorities

Approach

The Academic Research Fleet and Icebreakers

Scientific Ocean Drilling

Ocean Observatories Initiative

The National Deep Submergence Facility

Other Facilities and Infrastructure

Cost versus Relevance for NSF-Supported Infrastructure

References

4 The Path Forward: Maintaining Ocean Science in a Constrained Budget Environment

The Impact of Rising Infrastructure Costs on the OCE Budget

Achieving Balance

Decision Rules

A Strategy to Reduce Infrastructure Costs

Achieving an Initial 10% Reduction in Infrastructure Costs

Achieving Additional Cost Reductions

Examples of Possible Cost Reductions

Strategic Planning

Looking Ahead

References

Appendixes

A Committee and Staff Biographies

B Presentations at DSOS Committee Meetings

C Virtual Town Hall Questionnaire

D Glossary of Terms

E Acronyms Used in the Report

Boxes, Tables, and Figures

BOXES

I-1 Statement of Task

1-1 The Argo Program

1-2 A Decade of Discovery of Marine Life

1-3 Advances in Bathymetric Mapping

1-4 Contributions of Long-Term Monitoring Programs

2-1 Future Earth

2-2 Exploration: Key to Paradigm Shifts

4-1 Decadal Planning in Uncertain Budget Environments

TABLES

3-1 Small Facilities and Infrastructure Funded by NSF OCE Core Programs

3-2 Alignment of Current NSF-Funded Major Ocean Research Infrastructure to the Eight Decadal Science Priorities

FIGURES

S-1 NSF investments in core ocean science and infrastructure since 2000, in dollars

1-1 Sea-level rise rate differences for a 60-year time series at tide gauge locations across the East Coast of North America

1-2 Yearly minimums of Arctic ice volume from 1980 to 2014

1-3 Global proxy temperature and Antarctic ice-core composite temperature during the last deglacial transition

1-4 Incidences of dead zones from hypoxic systems in coastal regions

1-5 Shifts in the distribution of marine taxa

1-6 Monthly ratio of a warm-water copepod species to a cold-water species averaged over the North Atlantic

1-7 Illustrative examples of fishing down the food web

1-8 Bathymetry of the Gakkel Ridge

3-1 OCE annual budget from 1970 to 2014

3-2 NSF investments in core ocean science and infrastructure since 2000, as a percentage of the total OCE budget

3-3 Ship usage for the UNOLS fleet

3-4 Service life projections for the UNOLS fleet

3-5 NSF funding for the JOIDES Resolution facility and for science during IODP (2003-2013) and IODP (2013-2018)

3-6 NSF estimate of annual O&M costs for the global, coastal, and cabled observatory components of OOI

3-7 NSF estimate of OOI annual O&M costs of the individual components of the global mooring and coastal arrays

3-8 Location of OOI components

3-9 Conceptual diagram of relative operation and maintenance costs versus relevance of infrastructure assets presented in Table 3-2

4-1 NSF investments in core ocean science and infrastructure since 2000

4-2 Annual budgets for OCE core research and education programs