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COMMITTEE ON AUTOMATION AND THE U.S. WORKFORCE: AN UPDATE

ERIK BRYNJOLFSSON, Stanford University, Co-Chair

TOM M. MITCHELL (NAE), Carnegie Mellon University, Co-Chair

DAVID H. AUTOR, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

JOHN C. HALTIWANGER, University of Maryland, College Park

ERIC HORVITZ (NAE), Microsoft Corporation

LAWRENCE F. KATZ (NAS), Harvard University

NELA RICHARDSON, ADP, Inc.

MICHAEL R. STRAIN, American Enterprise Institute

LAURA D. TYSON, University of California, Berkeley

MANUELA VELOSO (NAE), J.P. Morgan Chase AI Research

Study Staff

BRENDAN ROACH, Program Officer, Computer Science and Telecommunications Board (CSTB) (through December 31, 2023)

JON EISENBERG, Senior Board Director, CSTB

SHENAE BRADLEY, Administrative Coordinator, CSTB

___________________

NOTE: See Appendix D, Disclosure of Unavoidable Conflict of Interest.

COMPUTER SCIENCE AND TELECOMMUNICATIONS BOARD

LAURA M. HAAS (NAE), University of Massachusetts Amherst, Chair

DAVID DANKS, University of California, San Diego

CHARLES ISBELL, University of Wisconsin–Madison

ECE KAMAR, Microsoft Research Redmond

JAMES F. KUROSE (NAE), University of Massachusetts Amherst

DAVID LUEBKE, NVIDIA Corporation

DAWN C. MEYERRIECKS, The MITRE Corporation

WILLIAM L. SCHERLIS, Carnegie Mellon University

HENNING SCHULZRINNE, Columbia University

NAMBIRAJAN SESHADRI (NAE), University of California, San Diego

KENNETH E. WASHINGTON (NAE), Medtronic, Inc.

Staff

JON K. EISENBERG, Senior Board Director

SHENAE A. BRADLEY, Administrative Assistant

RENEE HAWKINS, Finance Business Partner (through May 8, 2024)

THƠ H. NGUYỄN, Senior Program Officer

GABRIELLE M. RISICA, Program Officer

AARYA SHRESTHA, Senior Financial Business Partner

NNEKA UDEAGBALA, Associate Program Officer

Reviewers

This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process.

We thank the following individuals for their review of this report:

Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of this report nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this report was overseen by DARON ACEMOGLU (NAS), Massachusetts Institute of Technology,

and ELSA M. GARMIRE (NAE), Dartmouth University. They were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies.

Contents

PREFACE

SUMMARY

1 INTRODUCTION

Goals for This Report

Why Is This Topic Important Now?

How to Think About Artificial Intelligence and Its Impact on the Workforce

2 ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

Technical Progress in Artificial Intelligence

Drivers of Technical Progress in Artificial Intelligence

Final Observations

3 ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND PRODUCTIVITY

Artificial Intelligence: A General-Purpose Technology

Historical Changes in Productivity Growth

Explanations for the Slowdown in Productivity Growth

Effects of Artificial Intelligence on Productivity

Productivity, Labor Markets, and Inequality

Drivers, Barriers, and Risks of Artificial Intelligence Adoption

4 ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND THE WORKFORCE

The Role of Technology in Eroding and Augmenting Demand for Expertise

Demand for Expertise in the Industrial Revolution

Demand for Expertise in the Computer Era Before Artificial Intelligence

Demand for Expertise in the Artificial Intelligence Era

Evidence on Artificial Intelligence and Expertise

How Feasible Will It Be for Workers to Acquire Newly Valuable Expertise?

Workforce Risks

Directions for Further Research

5 ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND EDUCATION

Artificial Intelligence as an Input for Education

Implications of Likely Artificial Intelligence Impacts on the Labor Market for Education

Future Opportunities and Research Needs

6 MEASUREMENT

New Data Sources

Knowledge Gaps and Challenges

Addressing Knowledge Gaps

7 CONCLUSION

Findings

Opportunities to Influence How Artificial Intelligence Will Impact the Workforce

The Road Ahead

APPENDIXES

A Statement of Task

B Presentations to the Committee

C Committee Member Biographical Information

Preface

In 2017, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine released the report Information Technology and the U.S. Workforce: Where Are We and Where Do We Go from Here? That report looked at the impacts of emerging information technologies, including artificial intelligence (AI), on the U.S. workforce and set forth a research agenda for better understanding these impacts. Since the report’s publication, rapid developments in AI, including the emergence of large language models, have renewed interest from policy makers and the public alike in the implications of AI for the future of work.

The present study, requested in Section 5105 of the 2021 National Defense Authorization Act, builds on the 2017 report to provide an updated view of AI’s implications for work and the workforce. The study reviews current knowledge about the workforce implications of AI and related technologies, including for economic productivity and growth, job stability, equity, and income inequality; identifies key open questions; and describes salient research opportunities and data needs. The full statement of task for the committee is provided in Appendix A.

The National Academies established the Committee on Automation and the U.S. Workforce: An Update (see Appendix C) to conduct the study. The committee met in person in March 2023 and met virtually nine times to receive briefings from experts and stakeholders (see

Appendix B), review relevant reports and technical literature, deliberate, and develop this report.

The committee would like to thank the National Science Foundation for its support of this study. Last, the committee would like to acknowledge the excellent assistance throughout the study of the following National Academies’ staff: Brendan Roach, Shenae Bradley, and Jon Eisenberg.

Erik Brynjolfsson, Co-Chair

Tom M. Mitchell, Co-Chair

Committee on Automation and the U.S. Workforce: An Update