Social-Ecological Consequences of Future Wildfires and Smoke in the West: Proceedings of a Workshop (2024)
Chapter: 12 Reflections on Workshop Themes
12
Reflections on Workshop Themes
Jonathan Fink, Committee chair and professor at Portland State University, compiled a few key points from the workshop that he shared. These points are included in the closing sections of chapters 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, and 9. During the remainder of the closing session, Fink encouraged everyone to share aspects of the topics covered that either might have been overlooked or may need further discussion.
THE ROLE OF TRANSPARENCY AND ACCOUNTABILITY IN FIRE DATA AND RESPONSE
One speaker, Jessica Block, emphasized the critical importance of not only thoroughly documenting all aspects of fire but also ensuring that data and science remain open and accessible. This transparency is essential for the scientific community to effectively communicate and understand how fire dynamics are evolving. She noted that, unfortunately, fire research data access has been inadequate.
Highlighting the financial dynamics of fire, Block said that while there are clear losers, there are also significant winners. This reality, she argued, underscores the importance of considering social-ecological resilience. As a native Californian, she observed that fire is exacerbating the decline of the middle class, with some individuals profiting from this trend. She suggested that the government needs to play a more active role in balancing the winners-versus-losers scenario. The U.S. Forest Service is struggling to implement prescribed burns, she said, despite funding from the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. She argued it is insufficient and counterproductive to rely solely on capitalism to guide fire response.
Fink asked Block about the role of technology companies, noting Block’s earlier comments on the topic (see Chapter 10). Block explained that the rapid evolution of technology, often lacking ethical oversight, presents a risk. Companies frequently offer solutions based on poor data, she said, and sell them with unwarranted confidence. Citing instances where there has been significant investment in ineffective technologies, Block not only advocated for a model that supports innovation—without expecting every fire department to pay for expensive subscriptions—but also suggested establishing sustainable funding mechanisms that prioritize effective, altruistic solutions over profit.
ADAPTING FIRE MANAGEMENT: LEARNING FROM HISTORICAL AND INDIGENOUS APPROACHES
Committee member Ernesto Alvarado-Celestino pointed out that various science and technology tools developed over the past century are not designed for current conditions. He emphasized that the risk models used in fire management, rooted in 20th century thinking, are outdated and often neglect the social component.
Alvarado-Celestino said that while the U.S. Forest Service has a mandate to manage land, the agency faces bureaucratic challenges. One major issue is smoke management, which crosses federal and state boundaries, complicating regulation and management. He stressed the need for consistency between land management and air quality regulations—which are governed by different agencies.
He went on to note that legislation such as the Tribal Forest Protection Act of 2004 (P.L. 108-278) and the U.S. Forest Service’s Good Neighbor Authority projects1 have allowed reservations to co-manage their lands. In this context, Indigenous approaches to land management have proven to be more resilient and less fire-prone. Citing examples from California where tribes such as the Karuk have successfully managed lands using traditional methods, he suggested that the Forest Service could learn from these practices and partner with reservations to significantly reduce fire hazards.
EMBRACING A “ONE HEALTH” APPROACH IN WILDLAND FIRE MANAGEMENT
Edward Alexander, a speaker, emphasized the importance of incorporating a “One Health” perspective into wildland fire management. He advocated for considering ecosystem health and services, including the impact of wildfires on animals, pollinating insects, and the broader environment. He talked about how smoke affects not just humans but also migrating birds and other wildlife.
Alexander also pointed out the risks, such as the introduction of novel viruses, of neglecting a One Health approach. He noted that complex viruses can be transported globally through migratory birds whose habitats are disrupted by fires and permafrost melt. He has demonstrated (see Chapter 11) how migratory patterns can facilitate the spread of these viruses, underscoring the interconnectedness of human, animal, and environmental health.
Fink noted that a student of his in attendance at the workshop, Brandon Barnhart, an undergraduate at Portland State University, tracked a goose in Oregon navigating through smoke, illustrating how wildfire smoke can disorient wildlife and disrupt their natural behaviors.2
UNDERSTANDING THE COMPLEXITY OF WILDFIRE MANAGEMENT IN DIVERSE GEOGRAPHICAL AND ECOLOGICAL CONTEXTS
Following up on discussions about geographical variation and diversity, Planning Committee member Alexandra Syphard highlighted the importance of considering the unique characteristics of each location and its population. She pointed out how both the site and context play important roles in understanding social diversity. Syphard went on to say it is essential to acknowledge the diversity of ecological settings as well as fire regimes that not only vary distinctly across different ecosystems, but also are being altered in various ways for different reasons. She said the consequences of this can have vastly different effects and degrees of effectiveness depending on the specific ecosystem. In some cases, applying certain ecological management practices, she pointed out, can be detrimental, leading to unintended consequences in managing wildfires.
Research she has done in California has revealed that 70 to 80 percent of homes destroyed by wildfires are in non-forested landscapes, such as grasslands and shrublands. Similarly, Syphard stated that colleagues at the University of Wisconsin at Madison found that most home losses in the United States occur in non-forested eco-
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1 More information about U.S. Forest Service’s Good Neighbor Authority projects funded through the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law is available at https://www.fs.usda.gov/managing-land/farm-bill/gna
2 This work is not yet published but similar research is available at Nihei, A., Sanderfoot, O. V., LaBarbera, K., & Tingley, M. W. (2024). Wildfire smoke impacts the body condition and capture rates of birds in California. Ornithology, 141, 1–11. https://doi.org/10.1093/ornithology/ukae023
systems, including wetlands and grasslands. She noted this finding challenges the common misconception that forest management alone can address the problem of home loss due to wildfires.
INTEGRATING VULNERABILITY, SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS, AND INDIGENOUS KNOWLEDGE INTO WILDFIRE MANAGEMENT
Glen MacDonald, a speaker, shared several takeaways. Firstly, he emphasized the heightened vulnerability of rural populations, particularly Indigenous peoples, many of whom live in rural areas. In his remarks he stressed how for Indigenous communities the impact of wildfires extends beyond sustenance, affecting the very foundations of their culture.
Secondly, MacDonald highlighted the complexity of the socio-economic challenges—or “wicked problems.” Tackling these requires a comprehensive approach that considers not only the wildfire events themselves but also the antecedent conditions that can be modified to enhance resilience and sustainability. He pointed out that while wildfire management and evacuation are critical, the recovery stage is often where efforts fall short. Since socioeconomic factors play a critical role during recovery, he said their importance cannot be overstated.
Finally, MacDonald stressed the dual role of Indigenous peoples as both vulnerable populations and key contributors to wildfire management solutions. Integrating traditional knowledge with contemporary scientific approaches can lead to effective outcomes—as demonstrated in British Columbia, where he said that initiatives led to zero structural losses. He advocated for collaborative partnerships—extending beyond Canada to the United States—designed to harness Indigenous knowledge for the development of comprehensive and sustainable wildfire management strategies.
INSIGHTS INTO THE CONNECTION BETWEEN WILDFIRE MANAGEMENT AND THE IMPORTANCE OF PRECISION IN LANGUAGE
Max Moritz, a speaker, raised several points, emphasizing first the need for clarity in wildfire management language. Expressing concern about the terms “good fire” and “bad fire,” he noted that they can be misleading—and may not convey the same meaning to everyone. He suggested eliminating these terms to avoid confusion and using more precise language. For instance, he said some fire regimes, though high-intensity and long-interval, can be ecologically beneficial, while management implications can differ especially for the built environment in the wildland-urban interface (WUI).
Addressing the economic implications of wildfires, Moritz noted that taxpayer dollars often subsidize development in fire-prone areas, as well as fire-fighting efforts and post-disaster rebuilding. This creates a public subsidy issue similar to the “safe development paradox” in flood management.3
Lastly, Moritz argued that considering public health and safety perspectives for fire management could lead to better land use decisions and policies.
Fink added that integrating different issues and constituencies can build broader political support for wildfire management solutions. Discussing efforts in Oregon aimed at addressing rural depopulation, housing affordability, and forest management collectively, Fink said such efforts can be a means to garnering political support across various regions.
NUANCES OF FIRE MANAGEMENT TERMINOLOGY
Sarah McCaffrey expanded on Moritz’s points by discussing not only the human values attached to fire but also the importance of careful language use. She emphasized that terms such as “protect communities” and “prevention”—that often place undue responsibility on agencies and others—lead, when used, to people overlooking the need for resilience and mitigation. She stressed that while fire prevention is already highly effective—e.g.,
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3 Breen, M. J., Kebede, A. S., & König, C. S. (2022). The safe development paradox in flood risk management: A critical review. Sustainability, 14(24), 16955.
there is a 97 percent success rate, and the remaining 3 percent is usually due to bad weather—the focus should shift to mitigation to address the fires that prevention efforts cannot stop.
McCaffrey also pointed out the fragmentation in landscape language and social settings, noting that agency missions and responsibilities are often disjointed, leading to inaction. Highlighting the importance of respecting social science methodologies, she cautioned against assuming that anyone, without proper expertise, can conduct social science research. She stressed the complexity of social science with regard to achieving not only accurate and effective data collection, but also interpretation and risk messaging.
Sarah Henderson, a speaker, reiterated the importance of including smoke in wildfire discussions. By explicitly mentioning smoke, she emphasized the need to keep the issue central to the conversation—not to marginalize it.
An audience member also emphasized the importance of language in discussions. While there has been mention of traditional ecological knowledge, he stressed it would be more appropriate to frame it as “Indigenous knowledge” or “local knowledge.” These terms reflect a contemporary understanding of what Indigenous communities have, over time, learned—and how they apply this knowledge today.
WORKFORCE DEVELOPMENT IN WILDLAND FIRE RESPONSE AND FOREST MANAGEMENT
Courtney Cagle, representing the Foundation for California Community Colleges, highlighted a trend among today’s youth who, growing up amidst California’s frequent wildfires, are increasingly driven to pursue careers aimed at mitigating fire risks, at protecting communities, and at preserving the environment. Cagle pointed out that, despite this keen interest, there are barriers hindering the potential to fully capitalize on this enthusiasm. A major challenge that she identified was the shortage of affordable housing in regions, such as those within the U.S. Forest Service’s operational areas in the western United States, where these jobs are concentrated. Noting how at the start of the current summer fire season (in May of 2024) 25 percent of U.S. Forest Service wildland fire-fighting positions were unfilled,4 she said that the housing deficit not only affects recruitment efforts but also underscores broader systemic issues impacting workforce availability and retention.
Cagle went on to underscore the need for more accurate data on job opportunities in these sectors, noting that current data deficiencies not only hinder effective resource allocation but also program planning aimed at preparing individuals for these vital roles.
DEVELOPING A RESILIENT RURAL FIRE WORKFORCE
Drawing on experiences from Malibu and rural areas, an audience member highlighted the complexities associated with navigating stakeholder interests, scientific input, and policy frameworks, underscoring in the process the sophisticated and time-intensive nature of such initiatives. Addressing the need for a robust rural fire workforce, he stressed the importance of not only supporting individuals capable of driving effective change locally, but also backing them with national and global support in science, policy, and collaborative mechanisms. With 44 million homes (i.e., 32% of housing) in the United States in the WUI—many of which are in rural areas as well5—he urged proactive consideration of future workforce needs, emphasizing that foresight will be needed to develop and educate personnel who are capable, especially at the local level, to manage evolving fire challenges over the next decade.
EMBRACING PLACE-BASED RESEARCH
Emphasizing the importance of local and Indigenous knowledge in understanding the complexities of living in high-risk areas, a participant suggested prioritizing place-based research. Noting how beyond the inherent dangers there is a recognized amenity value attracting people to these places, he underscored the point that risk
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4 Siegler, K. (2024, May 22). Summer fire season nears as many wildland firefighting jobs are vacant. NPR. https://www.npr.org/2024/05/22/1252853868/summer-fire-season-nears-as-many-wildland-firefighting-jobs-are-vacant
5 U.S. Forest Service. (2024, May 7). Wildland-urban interface growth in the U.S. https://research.fs.usda.gov/nrs/projects/wuigrowth
is not always negative but can, at the same time, yield positive gains. Effectively addressing these dynamics, he stressed, requires a nuanced, locality-specific approach.
Another participant stressed understanding specific populations and their contexts by moving beyond abstract concepts of social vulnerability. He said it is necessary to establish a robust research framework that involves co-producing knowledge in an ethical reciprocal manner—rather than simply extracting information.6 This approach should prioritize not only data sovereignty but also community input into research efforts.
NAVIGATING UNCERTAINTY
A participant discussed the next step required in the development of a decision-making framework for navigating deep uncertainty. This process, she said, will entail two key elements: The first will involve establishing agreed-upon scenarios or counterfactuals that can clarify future outcomes in the present context. The second will call for drawing upon experts from the humanities who, in the absence of certainty, can articulate guiding principles for managing future fire scenarios.
ENHANCING RESILIENCE THROUGH INCREASED RESEARCH AND A ONE HEALTH APPROACH
Genevieve Biggs, from the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, highlighted a key theme: the inadequacy of data in general—and, more specifically, the lack of data in northern regions. This is exemplified, she said, by the need for more Yedoma7 research. When it comes to the goal of improving social and ecological resilience, these gaps present significant challenges. At the same time, she emphasized that she shares the optimism expressed at various points during the workshop. Her optimism relates to three particular areas: the increasing availability of data, knowledge, and transparency. To conclude, Biggs commented she is glad to have the reminder of the importance of humility and a One Health approach to using this data and knowledge effectively.
COMMUNICATING COMPLEX SCIENCE TO THE PUBLIC
Alvarado-Celestino emphasized that the solutions will require diverse and local knowledge. Noting that while we may not have complete information on how to solve these problems, we do, he said, possess valuable insights that should be effectively communicated not only to policymakers but also to the broader public. This will involve translating academic and scientific language into accessible terms. Often, he said, reports remain within academic circles, but the wealth of information discussed in this workshop should be disseminated more widely to include members of the general public.
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6 Browne, K. E., & Peek, L. (2014). Beyond the IRB: An ethical toolkit for long-term disaster research. International Journal of Mass Emergencies & Disasters, 32(1), 82–120.
7 According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center, Yedoma is “A type of Pleistocene-age (formed 1.8 million to 10,000 years before present) permafrost that contains a significant amount of organic material with ice content of 50 to 90 percent by volume.” More information is available at https://nsidc.org/learn/cryosphere-glossary/yedoma
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