Social-Ecological Consequences of Future Wildfires and Smoke in the West: Proceedings of a Workshop (2024)

Chapter: 2 Fire in the Past, Fire in the Mind, Fire in the Future

Previous Chapter: 1 Introduction
Suggested Citation: "2 Fire in the Past, Fire in the Mind, Fire in the Future." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. Social-Ecological Consequences of Future Wildfires and Smoke in the West: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27972.

2

Fire in the Past, Fire in the Mind, Fire in the Future

Rather than focusing on the standard and popularly accepted narrative for why fire behaves the way it does, particularly in the American West, Stephen Pyne, professor emeritus at Arizona State University, gave a keynote address on ways to shift perspectives and reimagine certain aspects of the narrative. Given the fire community’s fondness for triangles, he proposed three areas on which to focus:

  1. “Fire in the Past” to examine the larger narrative being told;
  2. “Fire in the Mind” to explore how to think about and define fire; and
  3. “Fire in the Future” to discuss how to define the problems, as this is critical to reimagining our responses.

Pyne challenged participants to move beyond conventional narratives and, on the subject of fire, adopt a multidimensional perspective.

REIMAGINING AND REDEFINING OUR RELATIONSHIP WITH FIRE

To present a new fire-centered narrative focusing on the United States, Pyne suggested it is useful to start with an 1880s census map of forest fires. He pointed out that this map, which portrays the U.S. in terms of its pyrogeography, does not include grasslands or sagebrush areas, only forested and wooded regions. To illustrate this in terms of three fires, he started with what he calls the “first fire,” which designates natural fires caused by lightning—a type of fire that has been around since plants first appeared on earth, more than 420 million years ago. A map charting these “first” fires would look very different from historical maps, he noted.

The “second fire,” in Pyne’s narrative, reflects human influence—including the taming and manipulation of fire by Indigenous peoples as well as newcomers arriving from Europe. The 1870 census population density map closely matches the 1880s map of fires, which Pyne said shows the significant human impact on the distribution of fires across a given area.

Human activity, including the ecological changes brought through Spanish and Portuguese colonization, reshaped the landscape and hence fire regimes. Massive depopulation resulted in feral landscapes.1 Efforts to connect these shifts with climate signals—such as the Little Ice Age, a period of cooler temperatures lasting from

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1 Koch, A., Brierley, C., Maslin, M. M., & Lewis, S. L. (2019). Earth system impacts of the European arrival and Great Dying in the Americas after 1492. Quaternary Science Reviews, 207, 13–36.

Suggested Citation: "2 Fire in the Past, Fire in the Mind, Fire in the Future." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. Social-Ecological Consequences of Future Wildfires and Smoke in the West: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27972.

roughly the 14th to the 19th century and preceded by massive plagues, wars, and large depopulations—suggest to Pyne a strong correlation between human impact and environmental changes writ large. Future research can contribute to a better understanding of these causal relations.

The scientific revolution, particularly the discovery of oxygen, changed the understanding of fire by moving it away from the idea of fire as an “elemental presence” and deconstructing it as a chemical reaction. A technological revolution, most notably with the introduction of the steam engine, transformed how fire was used, so that machines became the habitat for what Pyne calls the “third fire,” which quickly led to the burning of fossil fuels. A new wave of imperialism, led by Britain and France, then helped spread Western concepts of combustion, pyrotechnology, and landscape.

Up until that time, all fires, whether human-caused or natural, had occurred in living landscapes full of long-evolved checks and balances. However, the shift to third fire—burning lithic landscapes—decoupled combustion from the ecological domain. This new firepower burns continuously and is disconnected from natural landscapes, leading to what Pyne calls a “pyric transition.” This phrase reflects how third fire has remade human habitats and divided the world into two realms of combustion—one for third fire, one for first and second fire. In the developed world, this transition replaced working fires in domestic and urban settings with substitutes powered by third fire.

Agriculture, the largest arena for human burning, has also changed. Modern agriculture, whose processes draw on fossil fuels and chemicals, has eliminated traditional burning and fallowing techniques. This is important, since the mosaic of burned and fallowed landscapes that had resulted from earlier methods was responsible for most biodiversity. The study of fire ecology, Pyne pointed out, often excludes agriculture as an area of focus, despite its historical importance.

This shift extends to wildlands, where protected areas now undergo similar changes. Pyne emphasized that there is a causal connection between fossil fuel combustion and landscape burning. Without machines (e.g., for fossil fuel combustion) we could not pretend to fight or suppress fire. Rather, we would have to manage landscapes in traditional ways. A reaction to the doctrine of fire suppression appeared in the United States during the 1960s and 1970s and resulted in policy changes to encourage the return of good fire. All this occurred at a time before climate change became a major concern. Pyne emphasized that today, even if climate change were to stabilize, the fundamental problem would still remain.

Next, he summarized the global history of fire, organizing it around three kinds of fire:

  1. First Fire: For over 420 million years, fires have occurred in patches, naturally, here and there, around the planet.
  2. Second Fire: Humans reshaped fire for their own use, expanding its domain and altering its ecology.
  3. Third Fire: Geological materials from the past are being burned, impacting the present, and affecting the future. The Earth is divided into two realms of combustion: the first continuing to be reliant on traditional fire, and the second reliant on modern pyrotechnologies powered by combustion. Satellite images show the two realms nicely, with a particularly good contrast between Europe and Africa.

The paradox, Pyne pointed out, is striking: Why do developed countries, with their wealth, technology, and advanced science, suffer from megafires? Consider North Korea, which has not made the pyric transition as China and South Korea have. At night, satellite images are aglow with lights in China and South Korea, while North Korea is dark. But during fire season, North Korea, alone of the three countries, is ablaze with routine fires. Meanwhile South Korea, having recovered its forests, is undergoing the typical evolution of fires in a developed country—few but intense fires—which it addresses through the same methods used by other developed countries.

Pyne then moved to a broader view, suggesting we may be entering a new epoch informed by anthropogenic fire. Imagine, he suggested, an ice age transformed through a “pyric” lens, with fire replacing ice. The result is a world resembling our current one with the critical parameters of glaciation replaced by fire effects. He emphasized that not only are landscapes being remade, but humanity’s relationship with them is also changing. The result is what he calls the “Pyrocene.” The shift taking place means we can no longer think of ourselves as just living and dealing with fire; instead, now “we have to think about living in a fire age.” Climate history is becoming a sub-narrative of fire history.

Suggested Citation: "2 Fire in the Past, Fire in the Mind, Fire in the Future." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. Social-Ecological Consequences of Future Wildfires and Smoke in the West: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27972.

This realization has led Pyne to reconsider how we think about fire. He stated that it is crucial to recover traditional knowledge and rediscover historical precedents. Humans have successfully lived with fire until modern times. He noted there is a need to reexamine science and place an emphasis on the transfer of knowledge that occurred from North America’s Indigenous people to the newcomers. For example, historically, Europe had used fire on a widespread basis within an agricultural context, but elites dismissed the knowledge of folk practitioners, who managed fire more effectively. The United States has experienced regional controversies over the seeming conflict between balancing old traditions with a modern economy. Pyne emphasized that our lives today are not about just learning to live with fire, but about fire as a part of living, of integrating fire into our lives—a significant shift from traditional to modern practices.

Up until the early 20th century, urban fires in the United States were as common as fires in the countryside. There were many large-scale rural “exurban” fires (i.e., fires outside a city and its suburbs but still on the periphery of a metropolitan area) between 1870 and 1920. The main driver of this cycle of megafires was railroads, which encouraged logging and land clearing that cast sparks with abandon.

Next, Pyne talked about fire science, which has traditionally been dominated by a physical-based model—that is, the view of fire as a chemical reaction shaped by its physical environment. This approach has led to our thinking of fire settings as “fire sheds” or “fuel sheds” and, consequently, our presumed need to use physical measures to control them. Pyne went on to suggest, however, that a different model could be used, one that views fire as a biological phenomenon, which is to say an emergent property of life on Earth. The biota create the conditions for fire, making it an integral part of terrestrial ecosystems. In this view, fire is part of a habitat, and thus biological measures can be used for management—beyond just using goats for browsing or reintroducing beavers.

While the physical model approach is effective at understanding fire behavior and immediate threats, it has not been successful in the comprehensive management of landscapes. For this reason, Pyne also suggested considering the cultural context. Given how society, institutions, and ideas drive the current “firescape”—which is to say the landscape being shaped by people using fire—control measures beyond Smokey Bear should be explored, he stated.

Regarding megafires, Pyne pointed out that there are three different interpretations leading to different responses. A physical interpretation focuses on physical measures, which is to say treating megafires like tsunamis or droughts. This approach emphasizes early warnings, evacuations, and reorganizing the physical and built environments. The belief, on this basis, is that correctly managing fuels will lead to a balanced ecology, with fuels as the primary metric.

Using a biological interpretation—which sees these megafires as symptoms of broken biotas, akin to a public health and safety concern resulting from, in this case, human manipulation of landscapes—focuses on correctly altering the living landscape. If this is done well, Pyne went on to say, fuel management will naturally follow, leading to different outcomes and metrics for ecological health.

With a cultural interpretation, the response would involve changes in land use, institutions, policies, codes, and redefining ideas and research—in other words, approaches resembling those applied in the management of civil unrest or adapting to new technologies.

Pyne noted that rather than treating the biological and cultural aspects as secondary to the physical, exploring all three could provide valuable insights into how to go about reimagining fire science, resulting in more effective approaches to managing fire and landscapes.

Lastly, Pyne considered fire-related issues we will confront in the future, and how we might define the problem. He pointed out that there is too much bad fire, with special concern over the wildland-urban scene. For decades now the situation has been viewed as a wildland fire issue complicated by urban encroachment. Alternatively, he suggested it could be seen as an urban fire challenge influenced by landscape choices. Labeling it as a wildland fire problem, Pyne said, presents what scientists call a “wicked problem,” whereas defining it as an urban issue and reconsidering the narrative suggests clearer solutions. He noted, however, that public acceptance and associated action remain significant hurdles.

In shifting to “good fire”—a term Pyne said references more than just prescribed burns—the challenge involves getting the right kind of fire back into the landscape, whether through cultural burning, managed wildfires, or other methods. He went on to emphasize that the choice of tools used, and how strategies will be defined and implemented, will profoundly influence outcomes.

Suggested Citation: "2 Fire in the Past, Fire in the Mind, Fire in the Future." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. Social-Ecological Consequences of Future Wildfires and Smoke in the West: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27972.

Pyne displayed an image of a firefighter possessing only one tool for firefighting, the Pulaski—a hand tool that fuses an adze blade to an ax blade—and another tool for burning, the drip torch (an irony here being that the latter tool uses fossil fuels). He pointed out that as the burning of lithic landscapes is reduced, so great is the ecological fire deficit, there will necessarily be an increase in the burning of living landscapes.

As part of his final remarks, Pyne referred to the Wildland Fire Mitigation and Management Commission’s 2023 report,2 which offers 148 recommendations and emphasizes diverse interventions to integrate fire into broader infrastructure planning. Ultimately, fire is a complex problem, but managing fire has always been intrinsic to human existence. In closing, Pyne said “good fire made us; bad fire may break us.”

INSIGHTS ON FIRE HISTORY: CLIMATE, HUMAN IMPACT, AND ADAPTING TO A GROWING FIRE DEFICIT

Pyne’s keynote address was followed by a panel of three respondents, each offering commentary from diverse perspectives. Cathy Whitlock, professor emerita at Montana State University and the first keynote respondent, reinforced some of Pyne’s points. She noted that various tools are used to study fire history, depending on the temporal and spatial scale of interest. In recent decades, forest inventory data, documentary data, and satellite data have been used—while in earlier decades, and in preceding centuries, tree ring data and ethnographic accounts have been utilized. For very long timescales, charcoal and pollen from lake sediment records, archaeological data, and paleoclimate information are the primary information sources for reconstructing past fire occurrence. This suite of tools, past and present, has allowed researchers to examine linkages among fire, climate, human activity, and vegetation and identify changes in these linkages throughout and across time.

Whitlock highlighted three key points relevant to Pyne’s remarks. First, she noted that the fire history record shows climate to be the primary driver of fires on most timescales, and especially at large spatial scales. For example, events during three time periods—the increase in the number of fires at the end of the last ice age, the increase in the number of fires during the Medieval Warm Period, and the decline in the number of fires during the Little Ice Age—illustrate climate-fire linkages driven by temperature, which in turn affects fire, weather, and fuel conditions.

Second, Whitlock agreed that fire and people have long been part of the equation, but the impact of human-set fires on landscapes is highly variable, depending on the prevailing climate, vegetation, and the motivations for using fire. As examples she discussed first New Zealand, where deliberate burning by the Māori transformed 40 to 50 percent of the landscapes.3 She also talked about Yellowstone National Park in the western United States, where the human impact on fires is less evident due to the strong climate-driven system.

Third, she said that we are currently living in a fire deficit,4 a period that began about 150 years ago when fire was largely eliminated from the landscape.5 This deficit continues to grow, decoupling the relationship between climate and the area burned. Her remarks underscored the workshop’s goal of determining how we can live with wildfires in a world with a growing fire deficit. Whitlock stressed that responses must be context-based, site-specific, and adaptive.

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2 Wildland Fire Mitigation and Management Commission (2023, September). ON FIRE: The report of the Wildland Fire Mitigation and Management Commission. https://www.usda.gov/sites/default/files/documents/wfmmc-final-report-09-2023.pdf

3 Perry, G. L., Wilmshurst, J. M., McGlone, M. S., McWethy, D. B., & Whitlock, C. (2012). Explaining fire-driven landscape transformation during the Initial Burning Period of New Zealand’s prehistory. Global Change Biology, 18(5), 1609–1621.

4 The term fire deficit is used to explain the large, abrupt decline in burning in the western U.S. since the late 1800s, as a result of the combined effects of human activities and ecological and climate changes. Large fires in the late 20th century and 21st century fires reduce the fire deficit, but it is continuing to grow with climate change. For more information, see: Marlon, J. R., Bartlein, P. J., Gavin, D. G., Long, C. J., Anderson, R. S., Briles, C. E., Brown, K. J., Colombaroli, D., Hallett, D. J., Power, M. J., Scharf, E. A., & Walsh, M. K. (2012). Long-term perspective on wildfires in the western USA. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 109(9), E535–E543.

5 Marlon, J. R., Bartlein, P. J., Gavin, D. G., Long, C. J., Anderson, R. S., Briles, C. E., Brown, K. J., Colombaroli, D., Hallett, D. J., Power, M. J., Scharf, E. A., & Walsh, M. K. (2012). Long-term perspective on wildfires in the western USA. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 109(9), E535–E543.

Suggested Citation: "2 Fire in the Past, Fire in the Mind, Fire in the Future." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. Social-Ecological Consequences of Future Wildfires and Smoke in the West: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27972.

BRIDGING BORDERS: COLLABORATIVE FIRE MANAGEMENT AND THE ROLE OF INDIGENOUS KNOWLEDGE

As a member of both the National Academy of Sciences and the Royal Society of Canada, as well as a professor at the University of California at Los Angeles, Glen MacDonald, the next respondent, said it is crucial to recognize that when dealing with fire, national borders do not exist. Pointing out the importance of collaboration across borders, he emphasized that fire knows no boundaries. Pyne’s books, he mentioned, underscore this point.6

MacDonald provided data as evidence of both the magnitude and the cross-border nature of fires. In 2020, California saw over four million acres burned, breaking all-time records.7 In 2023, Canada experienced nearly 45 million acres being burned, exceeding the previous record of 17.5 million acres.8 He stressed that these events, driven by climatological factors, represent a significant challenge, with billions in insured damages.9 Between 2017 and 2021, the Moore Foundation estimated that the cumulative loss associated with fires in the United States was about $117 billion.10

According to MacDonald, budgets indicate that traditional fire suppression methods are not working. Federal fire-fighting suppression costs have soared in the United States, from $239 million in 1985 to $3.5 billion in 2022.11 Despite increases in fire-fighting budgets, catastrophic fires continue. This “wicked problem,” he emphasized, requires multifaceted solutions.

While alternative engineering and ecological approaches exist, MacDonald stressed that the socioeconomic and cultural dimensions, as highlighted in Pyne’s work, make fire management particularly complex. He discussed prescribed burns, noting California’s need for fuel treatment on 10 to 30 million acres, with costs ranging from $100 to over $1,000 per acre, and how current efforts are in any case insufficient given that only about 200,000 acres are treated annually.12

MacDonald echoed Pyne’s sentiment that we must learn to live in a world where fire is a regular part of our lives. The socioeconomic challenges, such as housing issues in California, further complicate fire management efforts. Highlighting cultural challenges as well—and underscoring the need to integrate Indigenous and traditional knowledge and engagement into fire management—MacDonald pointed to efforts such as Canada’s reconciliation movement and the Guardian program.13 Stressing that sustainable fire management requires a foundation in reconciliation science, integrating traditional practices with modern stewardship, he concluded by saying he hopes that, moving forward, these themes will guide discussions and actions.

REFLECTING ON FIRE: HISTORICAL INSIGHTS AND FUTURE CHALLENGES

Planning Committee member Gary Machlis, a professor at Clemson University, began by noting that during this workshop there were 18 ongoing large, uncontrolled wildfires burning 72,000 acres across eight states in the American West.14 He added that as he spoke, 2,000 firefighters and support personnel were currently working in the field on these fires. At the same time, in Canada there were then nine uncontrolled fires, he said, with the Petrie

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6 For example, see Pyne, S. J. (2011). Awful splendour: A fire history of Canada. UBC Press; and Pyne, S. J. (2017). Fire in America: A cultural history of wildland and rural fire. University of Washington Press.

7 More details on the 2020 California wildfires are available at https://www.fire.ca.gov/incidents/2020

8 More details on Canadian wildfires are available at https://ciffc.net/statistics

9 The reported costs for extreme weather events, including extreme fires, throughout Canada are available at https://climateinstitute.ca/map-climate-costs-tracker/

10 Paci, J., Newman, M., & Gage, T. (2023, June 27). The economic, fiscal, and environmental costs of wildfires in California. Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation. https://www.moore.org/docs/default-source/default-document-library/the-economic-fiscal-and-environmental-costs-of-wildfires-in-ca.pdf

11 National Interagency Fire Center. (2023). Suppression costs. https://www.nifc.gov/fire-information/statistics/suppression-costs

12 Brown, P. T. (2024). Cost-effectiveness of large-scale fuel reduction for wildfire mitigation in California. The Breakthrough Institute. https://thebreakthrough.org/issues/energy/cost-effectiveness-of-large-scale-fuel-reduction-for-wildfire-mitigation-in-california

13 There are currently more than 70 different Guardian programs in Canada for planning, fire management, fire suppression, and fuel management. More information about the program is available at https://www.ilinationhood.ca/guardians-fire-summary

14 Weekday fire reports are provided by the National Interagency Fire Center at https://www.nifc.gov/fire-information/nfn

Suggested Citation: "2 Fire in the Past, Fire in the Mind, Fire in the Future." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. Social-Ecological Consequences of Future Wildfires and Smoke in the West: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27972.

Creek Fire in British Columbia reaching about 67,000 hectares.15 The situation was not abstract, he emphasized, but as this illustrated, it was happening contemporaneously on the ground.

Commending Pyne’s work, Machlis said it exemplifies “how historians are essential partners to contemporary science.” Machlis highlighted the richness that historians bring to the table, and expressed a desire that historians have more opportunities to collaborate with members of the scientific community. In his view, Pyne’s discussion, and his book The Pyrocene,16 raise several important questions, which Machlis went on to discuss.

Referencing a prominent science historian, Machlis first asked whether, on the one hand, the scientific community sees itself living in what Thomas Kuhn conceptualized as a period of “anomalies”17—a period within settled but expanding normal science where facts and evidence increasingly fail to align with established theories, potentially leading to a paradigm shift—or, on the other hand, whether it was undergoing a major paradigm shift, as Pyne proposed? Or is the scientific community experiencing something else entirely?

Next, Machlis referred to Pyne’s assertion that shifting to burning fossil biomass causes “cultural amnesia about the heritage of fire” (p. 33).18 Machlis asked what knowledge has been lost, and what are the consequences of that loss?

Referring to Pyne’s provocative claim that “forestry was probably the worst-equipped [...] to intellectually cope with fire” (p. 101),19 Machlis’s said it would be fascinating if this quote were to be put on display at forestry colleges to provoke thought among the students. He then went on to ask this question: How might we reform the training of future forest scientists in light of the Pyric transition?

Finally, Machlis reflected on MacDonald’s comments by posing this question: Does fire discriminate? He wonders if the rich are shielded by the fire retardant of privilege—and, in this same context, what the relationship might be overall between wildland fire and justice.

DEFINING THE HUMAN-CLIMATE RELATIONSHIP: EMBRACING INTERACTION, SCALE, AND UNCERTAINTY

Pyne asserted he would like to see the human-climate relationship defined as an interaction. For a long time, we have viewed climate as the prime mover of all things, he commented, noting that when it is hot and dry, human ignitions are more powerful. He emphasized that an analysis should not place emphasis on a single driving force; it is the interrelationship, the interaction, that matters. For example, other driving forces noted by Pyne and other workshop participants include urbanization near wildfire-prone areas that does not use fire-resistant building materials (see Emily Schlickman’s presentation in Chapter 4), and the interaction of climate change with forest and fuel management (see Glen MacDonald’s comments in Chapter 11), among others.

Whitlock noted that in order to move beyond identifying a single driver, there will need to be nuanced discussions about the spatial and temporal scales. Climate operates on large scales, while human responses are often more on a local level, she said, noting that specifying the scales at which we discuss these issues could significantly advance the science.

MacDonald emphasized the importance of uncertainty. Echoing Pyne’s earlier point, he highlighted the notion that none of the factors—not the physical, the biological, or the cultural—is static. For example, climate change is altering physical factors such as vapor pressure, temperatures, and soil moisture. Biological factors, fuel types, and the cultural and socioeconomic aspects of society will be different in the future. He stressed that both fire and climate change are long-term issues that require consistent, long-range strategies, rather than fluctuating policies. MacDonald said this is a challenge not just for fire management but for climate change and society as a whole.

Machlis added that the scientific community needs as additional partners good communicators who can explain scientific concepts to the public. He argued that effectively communicating about the concept of uncertainty is crucial not only for political progress to be achieved, but also to promote an informed citizenry capable of making

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15 Current wildfire statistics for British Columbia are available at https://wildfiresituation.nrs.gov.bc.ca/map

16 Pyne, S. J. (2021). The Pyrocene: How we created an age of fire, and what happens next. University of California Press.

17 Kuhn, T. S. (1997). The structure of scientific revolutions (3rd ed.). The University of Chicago Press.

18 Pyne, S. J. (2021). The Pyrocene: How we created an age of fire, and what happens next. University of California Press.

19 Pyne, S. J. (2021). The Pyrocene: How we created an age of fire, and what happens next. University of California Press.

Suggested Citation: "2 Fire in the Past, Fire in the Mind, Fire in the Future." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. Social-Ecological Consequences of Future Wildfires and Smoke in the West: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27972.

sustainable decisions. He further noted the need for a better uncertainty-focused taxonomy and vocabulary that can be shared with the public. He suggested reaching out to new partners in order to improve in this area over the next decade.

BRIDGING PERSPECTIVES ON FIRE, CARBON MANAGEMENT, AND ECOSYSTEM SERVICES

Mike Wara, a workshop participant from Stanford University, expressed curiosity about integrating the history of fire and wildfires with current perspectives on carbon management and forests. Wara has observed potential communication gaps. He noted that natural climate solutions often aim to increase carbon storage in forests by suppressing fire, which he suggested might overlook historical reasons for carbon storage patterns. He invited those present to reflect not only on the challenge associated with bridging these perspectives, but also on the need to leverage insights to inform natural climate solutions and carbon management strategies.

Pyne referenced a famous quotation from the novelist William Faulkner: “The past is never dead. It’s not even past” (p. 73).20 His point was to emphasize that many landscapes and issues are historically constructed, suggesting that the way to understand their evolution is to think in terms similar to the way evolutionary biologists study species. Pyne noted that defining fire and its associated problems often hinges on traditions followed in different academic disciplines—but he went on to add that there is an evolving interest in fire research across various fields. He observed that disciplines such as geography, atmospheric chemistry, and climatology, which have traditionally overlooked fire, are now integrating it into their methodologies. This interdisciplinary approach, he said, will yield insights tailored to each discipline’s differing perspective.

Machlis suggested improving long-form ecosystem accounting in order to improve tracking throughout life cycles, such as the tracking of carbon sequestration. Additionally, acknowledging that almost all new technologies bring unintended effects that must be carefully studied, he emphasized the need for explicit research into the unintended consequences of carbon sequestration technologies.

Reflecting on Wara’s question, Whitlock highlighted the complexity of managing ecosystem services impacted by fire. She noted that the challenge extends beyond carbon storage to include air and water quality, biodiversity, recreation, and other landscape uses. Each ecosystem service requires tailored approaches depending on whether fires are suppressed or intentionally used for broader ecological purposes.

MacDonald emphasized the ecosystem-specific nature of managing carbon in relation to fire. He pointed out examples such as clearing the understory vegetation in Jeffrey pines, preserving the carbon stored in large trees. He highlighted, in contrast, challenges in Canada’s boreal forest, which has shifted from being a carbon sink to becoming a carbon source due to increased fires—including peat fires that are releasing ancient carbon. He underscored the tension between ecosystem services, biodiversity conservation, and carbon management, characterizing the situation as a complex and enduring “wicked problem.”

CLOSING THOUGHTS

Jonathan Fink, Committee Chair and Professor at Portland State University

Jonathan Fink noted that Pyne touched on numerous thought-provoking points. One that resonated with Fink was his call to blend traditional knowledge with historical precedents. Pyne’s example of how technological advancements addressed the fire risk posed by railroads a century ago offers hope for managing today’s wildfire dangers of utility power lines. Pyne also emphasized that the future of fire needs to strike a balance between “good” and “bad” fires, with a nod to Sarah Henderson’s point that smoke is universally harmful (see Chapter 6). Additionally, there were valuable comments from three respondents, including Cathy Whitlock, who highlighted the need for context-based, site-specific, and adaptive solutions, emphasizing that strategies will vary by location.

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20 Faulkner, W. (2011). Requiem for a nun. Knopf Doubleday Publishing Group.

Suggested Citation: "2 Fire in the Past, Fire in the Mind, Fire in the Future." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. Social-Ecological Consequences of Future Wildfires and Smoke in the West: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27972.

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Suggested Citation: "2 Fire in the Past, Fire in the Mind, Fire in the Future." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. Social-Ecological Consequences of Future Wildfires and Smoke in the West: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27972.
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Suggested Citation: "2 Fire in the Past, Fire in the Mind, Fire in the Future." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. Social-Ecological Consequences of Future Wildfires and Smoke in the West: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27972.
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Suggested Citation: "2 Fire in the Past, Fire in the Mind, Fire in the Future." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. Social-Ecological Consequences of Future Wildfires and Smoke in the West: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27972.
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Suggested Citation: "2 Fire in the Past, Fire in the Mind, Fire in the Future." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. Social-Ecological Consequences of Future Wildfires and Smoke in the West: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27972.
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Suggested Citation: "2 Fire in the Past, Fire in the Mind, Fire in the Future." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. Social-Ecological Consequences of Future Wildfires and Smoke in the West: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27972.
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Suggested Citation: "2 Fire in the Past, Fire in the Mind, Fire in the Future." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. Social-Ecological Consequences of Future Wildfires and Smoke in the West: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27972.
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Suggested Citation: "2 Fire in the Past, Fire in the Mind, Fire in the Future." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. Social-Ecological Consequences of Future Wildfires and Smoke in the West: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27972.
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Suggested Citation: "2 Fire in the Past, Fire in the Mind, Fire in the Future." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. Social-Ecological Consequences of Future Wildfires and Smoke in the West: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27972.
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Next Chapter: 3 The Trajectory of Wildfire in the West
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