Social-Ecological Consequences of Future Wildfires and Smoke in the West: Proceedings of a Workshop (2024)
Chapter: 3 The Trajectory of Wildfire in the West
3
The Trajectory of Wildfire in the West
The workshop session on the trajectory of wildfires in the western United States, moderated by Planning Committee member Ernesto Alvarado-Celestino, research associate professor, at the University of Washington, presented a comprehensive overview of the complex interplay between wildfires and human communities in this region. Focusing their attention on the increasing size, frequency, severity, and synchronicity of wildfires, panelists explored diverse perspectives—social, climatological, and ecological—while also examining historical trends and future projections.
FIRE’S FAR-REACHING IMPACTS
Michael Flannigan, Professor of Wildland Fire at Thompson Rivers University
When discussing fire, Flannigan explained, it is worthwhile to consider both direct and indirect impacts—smoke being an example of an indirect impact. He also emphasized what he referred to as cascading impacts, using the example of how recently burned areas are more prone to subsequent flooding and debris flows. Flannigan went on to say that the effects of fire are broad-based, with the spread of smoke being a prime example, as demonstrated by the effects of certain fires in 2023. He pointed out that while downtown New York City is unlikely to directly experience wildfires, its air quality was severely affected that year for weeks by a fire, or fires, originating in northern Quebec, over 600 miles away. Thus, fire can have many far-reaching impacts.
Between 2013 and 2023, Canada’s average of nearly 6,000 fires a year covered nearly 3 million hectares,1 almost a fourfold increase since the early 1970s.2 This increase, Flannigan pointed out, is largely due to human-caused climate change and rising temperatures. Unlike in the United States, about half of Canada’s fires are started
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1 Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre (CIFFC). (2023). Canada report: 2023 fire season. https://www.ciffc.ca/sites/default/files/2024-03/CIFFC_2023CanadaReport_FINAL.pdf
2 Hanes, C., Wang, X., Jain, P., Parisien, M-A., Little, J., & Flannigan, M. (2019). Fire-regime changes in Canada over the last half century. Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 49, 256–269.
by lightning;3 moreover, lightning-strike fires account for approximately 90 percent of the area burned.4 Much of this burned area in Canada is in the northern and remote regions, where fires are monitored rather than actively fought.
One of the key takeaways here, Flannigan pointed out, is that fires are driven by extremes. While only 3 percent of wildfires in Canada are larger than 200 hectares, these particular fires account for 97 percent of the area burned.5 In the western United States, the situation is even more dramatic: approximately 80 to 96 percent of the area burned originates with one percent of the largest fires.6 Most of this, Flannigan said, occurs on a small number of days that are hot, dry, and windy, which fire experts refer to as extreme fire weather days. Flannigan noted that an increase in the number of extreme fire weather days is expected in the future.
According to Flannigan, fire can be understood through a simple universal recipe that requires three ingredients:
- Vegetation (i.e., fuel): This includes the type, amount, moisture contained in, and structure of vertical as well as horizontal vegetation.
- Ignition: This can be from humans or lightning. Human-generated causes, besides arson, include activities related to railways, power lines, campfires, and the burning of fields or garbage.
- Weather: This involves, specifically, hot, dry, and windy conditions.
He pointed out that high temperature is not always needed, but dry and windy conditions are essential. Overwintering fires are becoming more common as more dry weather is being experienced.
The climate is changing, Flannigan noted, as demonstrated by the shared socioeconomic pathways from the Sixth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6).7 Though models have struggled to predict impacts, they have accurately predicted temperature increases—and more extreme weather is anticipated. If countries around the world meet their climate obligations, warming may be limited to just under three degrees Celsius. And this is alarming, he pointed out, because not only was 2023 about 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than normal,8 but also this year (2024) there has already been an increase in the number of fires in many parts of the world.
Research indicates that extremes drive the fire world.9 Considered together, the Fire Weather Index—particularly the 95th percentile of the Initial Spread Index (a numeric measure of the expected rate of fire spread)—and the vapor pressure deficit, both of which have shown significant increasing trends over the last 40 years, attest to how quickly fires can spread.10 Global temperature trends have also shown dramatic increases over land areas with flammable fuel, and Flannigan expects this trend to continue. He pointed out that while wind is also significant, temperature plays a vital role for three main reasons.
First, fire seasons are getting longer. Flannigan noted that in places like California, fires can occur year-round, leading to the term “fire year.” Similarly, British Columbia and Alberta saw active fires as early as February 2024. Second, with warming temperatures, more lightning is expected, which typically means more fires. Additionally, higher temperatures increase the vapor pressure deficit, causing the atmosphere to draw more moisture from the
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3 Canadian National Fire Database. (n.d.). Canadian National Fire Database (CNFDB). Natural Resources Canada. https://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/ha/nfdb
4 Jain, P., Barber, Q. E., Taylor, S., Whitman, E., Acuna, D. C., Boulanger, Y., Chavardès, R. D., Chen, J., Englefield, P., Flannigan, M., Girardin, M. P., Hanes, C., Little, J., Morrison, K., Skakun, R. S., Thompson, D. K., Wang, X., & Parisien, M.-A. (2024). Drivers and impacts of the record-breaking 2023 wildfire season. Nature Communications, 15, Article 6764.
5 Government of Canada. (2024). Forest fires. https://natural-resources.canada.ca/our-natural-resources/forests/wildland-fires-insects-disturbances/forest-fires/13143
6 Strauss, D., Bednar, L., & Mees, R. (1989). Do one percent of the forest fires cause ninety-nine percent of the damage? Forest Science, 35(2), 319–328.
7 An overview of CMIP6 and the socioeconomic pathways is available at https://climate-scenarios.canada.ca/
8 Bardan, R. (2024, January 12). NASA analysis confirms 2023 as warmest year on record. https://www.nasa.gov/news-release/nasa-analysis-confirms-2023-as-warmest-year-on-record/
9 Jain, P., Castellanos-Acuna, D., Coogan, S. C., Abatzoglou, J. T., & Flannigan, M. D. (2022). Observed increases in extreme fire weather driven by atmospheric humidity and temperature. Nature Climate Change, 12(1), 63–70.
10 For more information on the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System see https://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/background/summary/fwi. See also Chiodi, A. M., Potter, B. E., & Larkin, N. K. (2021). Multi-decadal change in western US nighttime vapor pressure deficit. Geophysical Research Letters, 48, e2021GL092830.
fuel. This drying effect, unless offset by increased rainfall, results in drier fuels. Flannigan noted that most models suggest that in the future the amount of expected precipitation will not be sufficient to counteract this drying trend. Third, he said drier fuels are more prone to ignition and spread, leading to higher-intensity fires that are challenging—if not impossible—to extinguish directly.
Flannigan noted that the 2023 Canadian fire season was unprecedented, breaking many records. With 4 percent of Canada’s forests burned, more than 200 communities affected, and approximately 232,000 evacuees,11 the season’s impact was staggering. He noted that emissions from these fires were equivalent to India’s annual greenhouse gas emissions.12
Flannigan noted that as one possible solution,13 sprinklers have proven, based on recent studies, to be highly effective. In addition, not only do building materials and community planning need to be addressed, but also drawing upon Indigenous and local knowledge will be essential. More prescribed fire is needed, he went on to say, though it faces public resistance due to concerns about smoke. He also said that mandatory FireSmart14 and Firewise15 practices are needed, since fire can spread from poorly protected areas to neighboring properties. According to Flannigan, prevention, mitigation, education, forest closures, and fire bans have been shown to be effective, as evidenced by a decrease in human-caused fires in Canada. Since every dollar spent on prevention and mitigation could save at least $4,16 he suggested placing more emphasis on these approaches. Also, early detection and initial attacks on unwanted fires are critical. He suggested not only differentiating between good, bad, and ugly fires, but also advocating for monitoring as well as modified responses to allow natural processes to occur when and wherever possible.
Flannigan’s extensive experience with fire suggests a clear trend: more extreme weather will lead to unprecedented fire conditions. He highlighted the increasing number of interactions, both directly and through smoke, between fire and society. He shared a personal experience with pyroCb (massive pyrocumulonimbus fire-generated thunderstorm clouds), and highlighted a dramatic rise in the number of higher-intensity fires. Additionally, more fires are burning into and through the night. Suggesting that the current fire management status quo might not be sufficient, he concluded by saying the bottom line is that fire is a multifaceted issue requiring multipronged solutions.
UNDERSTANDING AND ADDRESSING THE FIRE CRISIS: CONTEXT FROM HISTORICAL ECOLOGY
Philip Higuera, Professor of Fire Ecology at the University of Montana
Higuera discussed what is increasingly called the “fire crisis,” contributing to “changing when, where, and how fires are burning.” The broad causes include not only climate change, which is enabling more fires to burn on our landscapes and altering vegetation, but also human development, which is adding and removing ignitions and putting homes “in the line of fire,” Higuera noted.17
He spoke of the significant role that a knowledge of history can have in our ability first to understand the drivers of change and then, subsequently, to develop strategies to mitigate negative impacts. The history of fire across
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11 Jain, P., Barber, Q. E., Taylor, S., Whitman, E., Acuna, D. C., Boulanger, Y., Chavardès, R. D., Chen, J., Englefield, P., Flannigan, M. Girardin, M. P., Hanes, C. C., Little, J., Morrison, K., Skakun, R. S., Thompson, D. K., Wang, X., & Parisien, M.-A. (2024). Canada under fire–drivers and impacts of the record-breaking 2023 wildfire season. ESS Open Archive. https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.170914412.27504349/v1
12 Byrne, B., Liu, J., Bowman, K. W., Pascolini-Campbell, M., Chatterjee, A., Pandey, S., Miyazaki, K., van der Werf, G. R., Wunch, D., Wennberg, P. O., Roehl, C. M., & Sinha, S. (2024). Carbon emissions from the 2023 Canadian wildfires. Nature, 633, 835–839. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-07878-z
13 Flannigan pointed out that independent water and power sources are necessary for these systems.
14 More information about FireSmart is available at https://firesmartcanada.ca/
15 More information about the Firewise USA® program is available at https://www.nfpa.org/education-and-research/wildfire/firewise-usa
16 Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). (2018). Fact sheet: Natural hazard mitigation saves interim report. https://www.fema.gov/sites/default/files/2020-07/fema_mitsaves-factsheet_2018.pdf
17 Mietkiewicz, N., Balch, J. K., Schoennagel, T., Leyk, S., St. Denis, L. A., & Bradley B. A. (2020). In the line of fire: Consequences of human-ignited wildfires to homes in the U.S. (1992–2015). Fire, 3(3), 50.
North America is well documented through not only western science but also millennia of Indigenous knowledge. He said it is encouraging to see these sources being blended together in efforts to address current challenges.
Higuera then highlighted four key lessons drawn from ecological history, which is to say paleoecology. First, understanding fire history is critical for resolving the characteristics of different fire regimes. The concept of the fire regime, while sometimes a contentious term, helps contextualize the expected patterns and impacts of fire in various social-ecological systems. For example, a crown fire in a National Park Service-managed landscape differs greatly, he explained, from a low-intensity fire in a privately owned dry forest or a residential area. The concept of the historical range of variability reveals the inherent dynamism of ecosystems. Rarely is there a static point in the past that one can refer to—a concept known as non-stationarity. This was true well before the impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Therefore, it is useful, he noted, to contextualize changes and impacts within historical fire regimes.
Higuera’s second point was that understanding the past—particularly the longstanding dynamism and acknowledged links between and among fire, climate, vegetation, and human activities—is crucial for revealing mechanisms of change. There is extensive literature documenting these relationships, including the strong link between climate and fire.18 He highlighted examples of fire-catalyzed ecosystem change, alternative stable states, and the impacts of past fire management and human activity.19 He also noted the history of ecosystem resilience in the presence of fire, including high-severity fires.20 This resilience indicates that ecosystems are often more robust than initially thought; alternatively, if and when we see ecosystem transformations, it can reflect a significant departure from has been experienced in the past. For example, some ecosystems, such as high-elevation forests in Colorado and southern Wyoming, are experiencing unprecedented fire activity, facilitated by global warming and human activity.21 If 21st-century climate conditions remain warmer and drier than 20th century conditions, fire in these systems may burn at twice the historical rate over the coming decades. These observations and predictions are particularly alarming for human communities living near these ecosystems, and unfortunately, they are largely consistent with decades-old predictions.22
Third, Higuera stressed that one size does not fit all, since over time systems vary in their responses to fire and climate change.23 For example, while some regions are losing resilience, areas like the northern Rocky Mountains still show evidence of staying within their historical range of variability—although this may change with continued warming.24 This variability means in some systems there is still time to prepare or adapt, unlike in other regions facing immediate challenges. The “one size does not fit all” concept is also relevant for addressing the unprecedented impacts of wildfires on humans, driven by population growth. States such as California and Colorado lead in wildfire-caused structure loss, in contrast with states like Arizona and Idaho that have lower loss
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18 Calder, W. J., & Shuman, B. (2017). Extensive wildfires, climate change, and an abrupt state change in subalpine ribbon forests, Colorado. Ecology, 98(10), 2585–2600; Calder, W. J., Parker, D., Stopka, C. J., Jiménez-Moreno, G., & Shuman, B. N. (2015). Medieval warming initiated exceptionally large wildfire outbreaks in the Rocky Mountains. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 112(43), 13261–13266.
19 Roos, C. I., Guiterman, C. H., Margolis, E. Q., Swetnam, T. W., Laluk, N. C., Thompson, K. F., Toya, C., Farris, C. A., Fulé, P. Z., Iniguez, J. M., Kaib, J. M., O’Connor, C. D., & Whitehair, L. (2022). Indigenous fire management and cross-scale fire-climate relationships in the Southwest United States from 1500 to 1900 CE. Science Advances, 8(49), eabq3221.
20 Clark-Wolf, K. D., Higuera, P. E., McLauchlan, K. K., Shuman, B. N., & Parish, M. C. (2023). Fire-regime variability and ecosystem resilience over four millennia in a Rocky Mountain subalpine watershed. Journal of Ecology, 111(12), 2643–2661.
21 Higuera, P. E., Shuman, B. N., & Wolf, K. D. (2021). Rocky Mountain subalpine forests now burning more than any time in recent millennia. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 118(25), e2103135118.
22 Flannigan, M. D., & Van Wagner, C. E. (1991). Climate change and wildfire in Canada. Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 21(1), 66–72.
23 Davis, K. T., Dobrowski, S. Z., Higuera, P. E., Holden, Z. A., Veblen, T. T., Rother, M. T., Parks, S. A., Sala, A., & Maneta, M. P. (2019). Wildfires and climate change push low-elevation forests across a critical climate threshold for tree regeneration. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116(13), 6193–6198; Stevens-Rumann, C. S., Kemp, K. B., Higuera, P. E., Harvey, B. J., Rother, M. T., Donato, D. C., Morgan, P., & Veblen, T. T. (2018). Evidence for declining forest resilience to wildfires under climate change. Ecology Letters, 21(2), 243–252.
24 Clark-Wolf, K., Higuera, P. E., & Davis, K. T. (2022). Conifer seedling demography reveals mechanisms of initial forest resilience to wildfires in the northern Rocky Mountains. Forest Ecology and Management, 523, 120487; Clark-Wolf, K., Higuera, P. E., Shuman, B. N., & McLauchlan, K. K. (2023). Wildfire activity in northern Rocky Mountain subalpine forests still within millennial-scale range of variability. Environmental Research Letters, 18(9), 094029; Jaffe, M. R., Kreider, M. R., Affleck, D. L., Higuera, P. E., Seielstad, C. A., Parks, S. A., & Larson, A. J. (2023). Mesic mixed-conifer forests are resilient to both historical high-severity fire and contemporary reburns in the US Northern Rocky Mountains. Forest Ecology and Management, 545, 121283.
rates despite significant burning.25 He suggested that in the effort to improve wildfire management and mitigation strategies, lessons could be learned from states that have experienced significant structure loss.
Finally, Higuera suggested that we steward change by adopting a more proactive relationship with fire. He acknowledged that not only are many people aware of the need for this shift, but also they recognize that numerous tools are available to help adjust and adapt to living in a more fiery future. He referenced two papers to illustrate this point. The first paper highlighted the relationship between carbon and fire and the expected impacts of climate change, after both high- and low-severity fires, on post-fire conifer regeneration.26 The second paper emphasized tools that exist to modify how fires burn,27 indicating the need for prioritization. He further noted a report that includes policy suggestions as well as nuanced perspectives.28
Stressing the importance of reframing the challenge, Higuera closed by quoting Calkin and colleagues: “Predominant strategies continue to apply limited, risk-averse reactions that emphasize community protection at the expense of both resilient landscapes and safe, effective wildfire responses. […] Inasmuch [sic] as people and communities are implicated in the wildfire problem, so, too, are they part of the solution. Federal land-management agencies cannot resolve this crisis alone” (p. 3).29
RETHINKING FIRE MANAGEMENT: SOCIO-ECOLOGICAL INSIGHTS
Sarah McCaffrey, Research Social Scientist, U.S. Forest Service (retired)
McCaffrey discussed the sociological aspects of the socio-ecological equation, emphasizing the importance of historical context. The current fire management system was developed in the early 1900s by land management agencies during the Progressive Era (approximately 1901–1929), a time when a scientific, expert-driven approach that devalued local input dominated management practices. At the time, the ecological model followed a linear representation of nature, in which climax species were seen as “the best” and disturbances, such as fire, were considered detrimental. This supported a focus on fire suppression. Subsequently, during the Great Depression, the Civilian Conservation Corps provided a large workforce that could support the establishment (in 1935) of “the 10 am policy,” which focused on the suppression of every fire by 10 am on the next day. She also explained that the mid-20th century’s wetter and cooler conditions in the western U.S. made full suppression more feasible.
World War II, with slogans like “careless matches aid the Axis,” introduced a war metaphor to fire management.30 After the war ended, excess military equipment was repurposed for fire suppression activities, adding technological resources to the effort. Finally, toward the end of the 20th century, increased home losses led to greater involvement from structural fire departments and emergency response organizations, whose primary mission is to protect human life, safety, and property, further reinforcing the fire suppression model. McCaffrey explained that the resulting fire management system is characterized by a centralized, top-down, expert-driven approach that emphasizes the protection of life and property, fuels treatments as a key solution, and regards the public as a
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25 Higuera, P. E., Cook, M. C., Balch, J. K., Stavros, E. N., Mahood, A. L., & St. Denis, L. A. (2023). Shifting social-ecological fire regimes explain increasing structure loss from Western wildfires. PNAS Nexus, 2(3), pgad005.
26 Davis, K. T., Robles, M. D., Kemp, K. B., Higuera, P. E., Chapman, T., Metlen, K. L., Peeler, J. L., Rodman, K. C., Wooley, T., Adding-ton, R. N., Buma, B. J., Canslwer, C. A., Case, M. J., Collins, B. M., Coop, J. D., Dobrowski, S. Z., Gill, N. S., Haffey, C., Harris, L. B., ... Campbell, J. L. (2023). Reduced fire severity offers near-term buffer to climate-driven declines in conifer resilience across the Western United States. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 120(11), e2208120120.
27 Davis, K. T., Peeler, J., Fargione, J., Haugo, R. D., Metlen, K. L., Robles, M. D., & Woolley, T. (2024). Tamm review: A meta-analysis of thinning, prescribed fire, and wildfire effects on subsequent wildfire severity in conifer dominated forests of the Western US. Forest Ecology and Management, 561, 121885.
28 Wildland Fire Mitigation and Management Commission. (2023, September). ON FIRE: The report of the Wildland Fire Mitigation and Management Commission. https://www.usda.gov/sites/default/files/documents/wfmmc-final-report-09-2023.pdf
29 Calkin, D. E., Barrett, K., Cohen, J. D., Finney, M. A., Pyne, S. J., & Quarles, S. L. (2023). Wildland-urban fire disasters aren’t actually a wildfire problem. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 120(51), e2315797120.
30 U.S. Department of Agriculture, National Agriculture Library. (1942). Careless matches aid the axis, 1942, I, Folder: 0040-0004. U.S. Forest Service Smokey Bear Collection, MS0159. National Agricultural Library. https://archivesspace.nal.usda.gov/repositories/4/archival_objects/2718
“problem” to be fixed. Its tendency is to focus on technical solutions and improved tools rather than understanding and promoting changes in human behavior.
A key challenge today, according to McCaffrey, is that although extensive biophysical research about fire has contributed to new narratives about fire’s ecological role, the social narratives around fire management remain stuck and outdated. These narratives still treat the public as a problem to be fixed with better education and a one-size-fits-all solution.
However, decades of social science research contradicts these outdated narratives. One illustrative quote from Harold H. Biswell in 1972 highlighted this issue:
Some people think we have to train the general public to the idea of prescribed burning. They maintain that the general public has listened to Smokey the Bear so long that it will be difficult for them to see any beneficial effects of using fire as a tool. However, I have found that the general public grasps the idea very quickly and often asks, “Why didn’t you start it long ago?” (p. 94).31
This statement was made over 50 years ago and yet, McCaffrey said, despite numerous research studies that support Biswell’s perspective, there remains a persistent narrative that the general public does not understand the positive role of prescribed fire. However, research has consistently shown that people in fire-prone areas have a good understanding of fire ecology, including its beneficial role.32 Surveys across the United States and other countries indicate that approximately 80 percent of individuals in these areas find prescribed fire acceptable at some level, especially when they understand its ecological benefits.33
Another common narrative is that the public does not understand the fire risk. However, McCaffrey pointed to studies showing that most people in fire-prone areas are aware of the high fire risk. Risk research over the course of decades also has shown how risk perception is not a simple calculation based on probability and outcomes. For instance, risk attitudes can vary, with some individuals more comfortable with risk than others. People also make tradeoffs between acceptable risk exposure and the perceived benefits of that exposure, whether it is living in fire-prone areas or using prescribed fire. Ultimately, other factors shape the decision to act besides risk, including considerations around efficacy. People are more likely to take action when they believe it will make a meaningful difference (response efficacy)—and when they have the ability to act given the availability of money, time, and physical ability (self-efficacy). Overall, a hesitation to take action is more likely to stem from barriers, she said, not from a lack of understanding.
McCaffrey noted that the default assumption that public education is the solution is also problematic, as the notion that an information deficit is the main barrier to action was disproven decades ago in numerous social science fields. This work has shown that “information campaigns often are ineffective because they ignore the motives behind behavior” (p. 1).34 Lack of information is only one of a range of factors that influence people’s fire management-related actions. Along with efficacy considerations, she noted that people choose to live where they do for specific reasons, so local context and people’s place attachment need to be taken into account since they can influence human behavior.
Drawing upon research literature in the field of social science, she described three key dynamics that influence acceptance and individuals taking protective measures: knowledge of a practice; trust in an information source
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31 Biswell, H. H. (1972, June). Fire ecology in ponderosa pine-grassland. Proceedings Annual (12th) Tall Timbers Fire Ecology Conference, 12, 69–97. http://talltimbers.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Biswell1972_op.pdf
32 McCaffrey, S. M., & Olsen, C. S. (2012). Research perspectives on the public and fire management: A synthesis of current social science on eight essential questions. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station.
33 Toman, E. L., Stidham, M., McCaffrey, S., & Shindler, B. A. (2013). Social science at the wildland-urban interface: A compendium of research results to create fire-adapted communities. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station.
34 Monroe, M. C., Pennisi, L., McCaffrey, S., & Mileti, D. (2005). Social science to improve fuels management: A synthesis of research relevant to communicating with homeowners about fuels management. Forest Service. U.S. Department of Agriculture.
and in those who are implementing practices such as prescribed burns; and interactive communication that allows people to ask questions and clarify concerns.35
In addition to extensive ecological research, similar levels of attention and research data, McCaffrey said, are needed in relation to the “socio” component of the socio-ecological system. She pointed out that the social narratives around fire remain outdated because they do not reflect existing empirical information and, instead, oversimplify complex social factors and behavioral motives. She argued for a rethinking of the fire management system, suggesting it needs to better reflect the current social and environmental context rather than that of the last century—and that it needs to move beyond the mere tweaking of an outdated system. While improved tools might help, a fundamental shift needs to take place, moving away from fighting a “war” with fire toward recognizing the need to “thrive with fire” (p. 235).36
This shift, she said, will require focusing on numerous social considerations long before a fire ever happens, as well as recognizing that human behavior is influenced by a broad range of concerns beyond fire. She ended her presentation by proposing three questions to ask when addressing the social dynamics of fire management: What evidence supports an existing narrative? What are the interconnections with other spatial and temporal scales? Are there linkages with non-fire concerns that need to be taken into account?
APPLYING ENVIRONMENTAL LESSONS TO FIRE MANAGEMENT
Reflecting on McCaffrey’s comments about attitudes and perceptions, Marion Weber, with the Government of British Columbia, wondered if lessons from other environmental interventions, such as wetland drainage, could be applied to the challenges associated with living with fire. She noted how attitudes toward wetlands have shifted and suggested finding similar successful analogs. McCaffrey agreed that lessons, motives, methods, and techniques can be learned from non-fire initiatives. She highlighted how in an earlier period the public was okay with fire, but then the Forest Service stepped in and changed people’s attitudes in the 1930s by “educating” them to see fire as bad. She emphasized that effective engagement requires not just simple solutions but also adequate resources and personnel.
POTENTIAL IMPACT OF LAND LEASES ON WILDFIRE MANAGEMENT
Referencing “100-year land leases”37 and wildfire management, a virtual audience member suggested that leases such as these might be shortened. Higuera acknowledged that long-range perspectives, such as decades-long forest plans, could be problematic due to rapid climate and human changes, and suggested that shorter timescales might be more appropriate. McCaffrey noted that many of these leases involve cabins, and questioned whether leaseholders manage the land less effectively than the Forest Service would. Ernesto Alvarado-Celestino asked about similar situations in Canada, and Flannigan, responding, explained that while Canadian national parks have leases, the Canadian Forest Service is primarily research-based and does not manage the land directly.
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35 See earlier citations throughout this section as well as the following: McCaffrey, S. (2015). Community wildfire preparedness: A global state-of-the-knowledge summary of social science research. Current Forestry Reports, 1, 81–90; Mylek, M. R., & Schirmer, J. (2019). Thinking about fuel management: the potential of integrative complexity theory to inform design of communication about fuel management used to reduce wildfire risk. Society & Natural Resources, 32(9), 983–1002; Rogers, E. M. (2003). Diffusion of innovations, (5th ed.). Free Press; Shindler, B., Olsen, C., McCaffrey, S., McFarlane, B., Christianson, A., McGee, T., Curtis, A., & Sharp, E. (2014). Trust: A planning guide for wildfire agencies and practitioners: An international collaboration drawing on research and management experience in Australia, Canada, and the United States. A Joint Fire Science Program Research Publication. Oregon State University.
36 Tedim, F., McCaffrey, S., Leone, V., Delogu, G. M., Castelnou, M., McGee, T. K., & Aranha, J. (2020). What can we do differently about the extreme wildfire problem: An overview. In F. Tedim, V. Leone, & T. K. McGee (Eds.), Extreme Wildfire Events and Disasters (pp. 233–263).
37 According to the Forest Service, “The ‘99 year lease’ is a term that has been discussed and misunderstood over the years. There is not, and never has been, a Forest Service ‘99 Year Lease.’ In the early part of the century, some portions of private land were leased for summer homes and subdivisions for 99 years, and some leases still exist. It is possible that because they were located adjacent to National Forest land in the foothills and mountains, National Forest Recreation residence tracts became associated with this type of lease. Forest Service issues recreation residence permits for a maximum of 20 years.” https://www.fs.usda.gov/detail/eldorado/passes-permits/other/?cid=fsbdev7_019075
PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS AND BIAS IN WILDFIRE MANAGEMENT
An audience member from Mega Fire Action asked why it is the case that, despite scientific evidence showing the public understands fire and the role of prescribed burns, researchers, managers, and decision-makers have spent 50 years insisting that the public is the problem? McCaffrey, responding that this area merits more research, went on to note that institutional structures and narratives play a significant role. Pointing out that sampling bias and confirmation bias contribute to maintaining such narratives, she gave the example of how emergency responders interact primarily with individuals needing help, thus limiting their sampling.
SOCIAL SCIENCE CONTRIBUTIONS TO WILDFIRE RESEARCH
A virtual audience member asked which social science fields are engaged with fire-related questions. McCaffrey responded that all social science disciplines contribute, each from its own different angle and perspective. To cite some examples, she mentioned that geography focuses on natural hazards, while sociology emphasizes group behavior. Pointing out how anthropology contributes by examining culture and social norms, while the fields of organizational behavior and psychology also add valuable perspectives, she emphasized that social science is as complex and varied as the ecological disciplines. Higuera agreed, noting that fire spans all disciplines, adding that the field of public health is also particularly relevant due to concerns about wildfire smoke. Flannigan, underscoring the multifaceted nature of fire studies, shared a paper that outlines the connections between various earth systems.38
COMMUNITY PROGRESS IN FIRE MANAGEMENT DESPITE RESOURCE LIMITATIONS
Steve Jensen, who is from California State University at Long Beach, raised a question about the local capacity to address fire management at the depth and scale required, especially given the current strains on public health systems. McCaffrey responded optimistically, noting that significant progress is being made at the community level. She pointed out that despite lacking the necessary resources, communities are often ahead of agencies in not only understanding but also acting on fire management issues. She highlighted the positive impact of funding from sources such as the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, which both provides grants to underserved communities and helps them build capacity to apply for funding. She acknowledged that while it is uncertain whether the funding is sufficient, she believes communities will lead the way in effective fire management—and, in so doing, at their current pace will succeed in surpassing agencies.
COMBINING TRADITIONAL AND SCIENTIFIC APPROACHES TO FIRE MANAGEMENT
An online question came from a member of the U.S. Forest Service, who asked, with regard to wildfire management and/or post-fire restoration, what is the best way to go about successfully integrating Indigenous, local, professional, and technical knowledge with scientific knowledge? Citing a notable example, Flannigan highlighted the work with both western and Indigenous knowledge done by Marianne and Ron Ignace in British Columbia (see Chapter 9). Higuera referenced the Adaptive Forest Stewardship project,39 noting increased interaction and positive changes across the West. Acknowledging many examples of successful integration, McCaffrey went on to say there is room for more. Alvarado-Celestino added examples from the Colville and Yakama Reservations in Washington State, where traditional Indigenous knowledge is being integrated with modern science to effectively manage wildfires.
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38 Bowman, D. M., Balch, J., Artaxo, P., Bond, W. J., Cochrane, M. A., D’antonio, C. M., DeFries, R., Johnston, F. H., Keeley, J. E., Krawchuk, M. A., Kull, C. A., Mack, M., Moritz, M. A., Pyne, S., Roos, C. I., Scott, A. C., Sodhi, N. S., & Swetnam, T. W. (2011). The human dimension of fire regimes on Earth. Journal of Biogeography, 38(12), 2223–2236.
39 More information about the team of Indigenous and western practitioners and scholars working on place-based adaptation strategies is available at https://adaptiveforeststewardship.org/
ADVANCING COMPREHENSIVE WILDFIRE STRATEGIES: THE OREGON EXPERIENCE
Matthew Donegan, the former chair of the Oregon Wildfire Response Council, drew on Oregon’s experience developing a comprehensive strategy for wildfires by using the National Cohesive Wildland Fire Management Strategy.40 He reflected on the need for sweeping change in wildfire management. He highlighted the challenge, due to limited resources and competing priorities, of translating suggestions into legislative action. Stressing the importance of economics in the context of forecasting future impacts and the related costs required to mobilize necessary changes,41 he urged finding actionable steps to help mitigate costs and unlock some of the benefits of certain wildfires.
THE COMPLEXITY OF FIRE MANAGEMENT: ADAPTATION, MITIGATION, AND COMMUNITY INVOLVEMENT
Cathy Whitlock, from Montana State University, noted that climate adaptation often resonates more easily with people as it involves the immediate actions needed to live with impacts—whereas mitigation, which addresses the root causes, can be more challenging to promote. She asked if there were any parallels to this in contemporary fire issues? Drawing upon the field of natural hazards, McCaffrey referenced insights showing different responses to immediate versus long-term hazards, the latter proving harder to get people to respond to. Highlighting the complexity of behavior change, she cited a study that found people who did not believe in climate change were as likely, if not more likely, to mitigate fire risks.42 She emphasized the importance of engaging with communities to help them understand their concerns and motivations, rather than focusing solely on advocating for actions based on scientific imperatives.
Flannigan pointed out that due to the scale of the problem, Canada has shifted away from attempting to manage the entire landscape, considering such an approach impractical and costly. Though both Flannigan and McCaffrey noted how localized approaches, such as FireSmart and Firewise, are proving effective in protecting homes and communities, Flannigan went on to emphasize that challenges remain, such as varying levels of fire preparedness among neighboring properties. McCaffrey recounted a discussion with a former Forest Service chief in which she (McCaffrey) questioned whether widespread community fire adaptation would change fire response strategies. The chief’s response was no, which response underscores the difficulties in addressing internal challenges.
Flannigan emphasized the need to evaluate each fire’s impact on its own merits (i.e., beneficial versus detrimental fires), especially in regions in Canada where fire management practices differ significantly from the practices used in densely populated areas like California. Commenting that viewing all areas that have been burned as problematic hampers effective fire management, Higuera advocated for strategies that, instead, integrate fire as a natural landscape process. He referenced the Potential Operational Delineations43 process as a hopeful change—although McCaffrey, responding, cautioned against its application beyond operational planning due to potential limitations in public communication.
CLOSING THOUGHTS
Jonathan Fink, Committee Chair and Professor at Portland State University
This session focused on the trajectory of wildfires in the West, featuring insights from Flannigan, Higuera, and McCaffrey. Fink said it underscored the value of historical data and the challenge posed by the absence of
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40 More information about the National Cohesive Wildland Fire Management Strategy is available at https://www.forestsandrangelands.gov/strategy/
41 The U.S. Congress Joint Economic Committee report found that “climate-exacerbated wildfires cost the United States between $394 to $893 billion per year in economic costs and damages—a number much higher than existing estimates.” Additional details on the report are available at https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/democrats/2023/10/new-report-economic-impact-of-wildfires-higher-than-previously-estimated
42 Bergquist, M., Thiel, M., Goldberg, M. H., & van der Linden, S. (2023). Field interventions for climate change mitigation behaviors: A second-order meta-analysis. (2023). Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 120(13), e2214851120.
43 More information about the Potential Operational Delineations is available at https://www.fs.usda.gov/research/rmrs/projects/pods
historical precedents for the current wildfire conditions—an issue reiterated throughout the discussion. The session highlighted rethinking the paradigm of managing wildfires and the limitations of current wildfire management strategies, which have proven inadequate despite a century-long focus on suppression. Fink noted that this prompts the need for more emphasis on prevention and mitigation and on ways to effectively integrate them into policy.
McCaffrey emphasized that social science research often reveals perspectives that diverge from policy assumptions. For instance, she pointed out that while policymakers may perceive public opposition to controlled burns, public opinion research often reveals support for proactive measures. This disconnect, Fink noted, underscores the importance of effective communication and community engagement in shaping fire management policies. McCaffrey stressed the need for strategies that foster trust through engagement, explanation, and empowerment—a foundational step toward building trust and advancing effective fire management practices.
