Developing a Guide for Incorporating Uncertainty into Long-Range Transportation Planning (2026)
Chapter: Introduction
Introduction
Fundamental to the mission of state DOTs and MPOs is the responsibility of anticipating ever-evolving demands for safe, efficient, and sustainable mobility while planning strategies and allocating resources now and in the future. Within the long-established federally mandated planning process, long-range planning is the primary vehicle for assessing trends that shape transportation. Decision-makers and planners within these organizations know well that their plans are fraught with uncertainty and in recent years have experimented with a host of approaches designed to better understand the implications of shifting demographics, economic patterns, land use, workforce needs, technological developments, environmental forces, funding, and sociocultural values. At the same time, planning has become increasingly focused on measurable performance targets and outcomes.
While there have been considerable advances in our understanding of uncertainty – and the use of methods such as scenario planning, robust decision-making, and risk analysis – a central challenge remains: How can the insight gained from these and other methods be translated into every-day action and adaptive decision-making?
Research Objectives
This research aimed to achieve two major goals: (1) Enable decision-makers and staff within state DOTs and MPOs to identify key points of flexibility within the planning process to better address uncertainty, and (2) Provide technical and organizational strategies to inform investment decisions and proactive adaptation to meet agency goals. These goals were accomplished through the completion of research objectives and creation of final deliverables.
The objectives of this research were to:
- Identify how, when, where, and why uncertainty should be considered in state DOT and MPO planning and programming processes;
- Develop frameworks, guidance, and/or toolkit(s) to factor uncertainty into LRTPs, STIP/TIPs, and other related planning documents, and that allow state DOTs and MPOs to monitor and implement their plans;
- Identify strategies and techniques to proactively adapt plans when impacts from uncertainty require agencies to pivot to ultimately achieve their goals; and
- Identify strategies to communicate with stakeholders, including partners, decision-makers, elected officials, and the public-at-large about uncertainty in transportation planning and programming.
The deliverables produced as part of this research were:
- NCHRP Research Report 1168: Incorporating Uncertainty into Long-Range Transportation Planning: A Guide, providing guidance on how, when, where, and why uncertainty should be considered in state DOT and MPO planning and programming processes
