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From daily commutes to cross-country road trips, millions of light-duty vehicles are on the road every day. The transportation sector is one of the United States’ largest sources of greenhouse gas emissions, and fuel is an important cost for drivers. This study is a technical evaluation of costs, benefits, and implementation issues of fuel efficiency technologies for next-generation light-duty vehicles. In addition to making findings and recommendations related to technology cost and capabilities, it considers the impacts of changes in consumer behavior and regulatory regimes appropriate for 2025-2035.
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·2022
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Description
The committee that will be formed to carry out this study will continue the work of the National Academies for the U.S. Department of Transportation's National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) in the assessment of technologies for improving the fuel economy of light-duty vehicles. While the committee will need to consider the near term deployment of fuel economy technologies, it is tasked with looking out into the 2025 to 2035 time frame to provide updated estimates of the potential cost, fuel economy improvements, and barriers to deployment of technologies. The committee will need to broadly consider the types of technologies that might emerge over this time period and their impacts on fuel consumption. It will also consider shifts in the personal transportation and vehicle ownership models and how such shifts might impact vehicle technologies. The committee will build on the assessments completed in earlier National Academies reports, including the first two phases of this series of studies Assessment of Fuel Economy Technologies for Improving Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy (2011) and Costs, Effectiveness, and Deployment of Fuel Economy Technologies for Light-Duty Vehicles (2015). It will reflect on developments since these reports were issued and investigate any new technologies and trends in consumer behaviors that may become important by 2035. In particular, the committee will:
1. Examine the costs (direct and indirect), fuel economy improvements, and potential implementation timing for high volume production of technologies for internal combustion engine powertrains.
2. Examine the costs (direct and indirect), fuel economy improvements, and potential implementation timing for high volume production of electric powertrain technologies. The committee shall include an examination of the cost, performance, durability, usable battery capacity and other issues related to critical components, including batteries, ultracapacitors, and power electronics and auxiliary vehicle systems such as heating and cooling. The committee will also address transition issues associated with meeting the infrastructure needs for such powertrains.
3. Examine the costs (direct and indirect), fuel economy improvements, and potential implementation timing for high volume production of non-powertrain technologies including mass reduction, aerodynamics, low rolling resistance tires, and vehicle accessories. For mass reduction, the committee shall consider opportunities for a range of baseline vehicle materials, including steel, high strength steel, mixed metal, aluminum, polymers, composites and others. The committee shall include an examination of methodologies for cost assessment of mass reduction, including equipment and retooling costs, manufacturing issues, supply chain requirements, and implications for durability, safety, and reparability.
4. Consider the current and possible future role of flexibilities in the CAFE program on the introduction of new technologies, including credit trading, treatment of alternative fuel vehicles, off-cycle provisions, and flexibilities for small volume manufacturers.
5. Assess how shifts in personal transportation and vehicle ownership models might evolve out to 2035, how these changes could impact fuel economy-related vehicle technologies and operation, and how these changes might impact vehicle scrappage and vehicle miles traveled. Scenarios might be used to bound this task.
6. Examine consumer behavior issues associated with new fuel efficiency technologies, including acceptance of any utility or performance impacts and cost of new technologies. This could include considerations of consumers’ willingness to pay for improvements in fuel economy and other vehicle attributes.
7. Write a final report documenting the committee’s conclusions and recommendations.
Contributors
Committee
Chair
Member
Member
Member
Member
Member
Member
Member
Member
Member
Member
Member
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Member
Elizabeth Zeitler
Staff Officer
Conflict of Interest Disclosure
Disclosure of Conflict of Interest: Daniel Kapp
The conflict of interest policy of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (http://www.nationalacademies.org/coi) prohibits the appointment of an individual to a committee authoring a Consensus Study Report if the individual has a conflict of interest that is relevant to the task to be performed. An exception to this prohibition is permitted if the National Academies determines that the conflict is unavoidable and the conflict is publicly disclosed. A determination of a conflict of interest for an individual is not an assessment of that individual's actual behavior or character or ability to act objectively despite the conflicting interest.
Daniel Kapp has a conflict of interest in relation to his service on the Committee on Assessment of Technologies for Fuel Economy in Light-Duty Vehicles, Phase 3, because he owns Ford Motor Company stocks, and because he has a consulting relationship with AVL Powertrain Engineering, a supplier of engineering services to automobile manufacturers.
The National Academies has concluded that in order for the committee to accomplish the tasks for which it was established, its membership must include current direct experience with leading gasoline engine and powertrain programs at a major automaker, focusing on gasoline engine technologies under research, development, and large-scale deployment. As his biographical summary makes clear, Daniel Kapp has deep automotive experience in the areas of engine design and development, launch of vehicle programs, and leadership and management of powertrain systems deployed in the vehicle fleet.
The National Academies has determined that the experience and expertise of Mr. Kapp is necessary for the committee to accomplish the task for which it has been established. The National Academies could not find another available individual with the equivalent experience and expertise who does not have a conflict of interest. Therefore, the National Academies has concluded that the conflict is unavoidable.
The National Academies believes that Mr. Daniel Kapp can serve effectively as a member of the committee, and the committee can produce an objective report, taking into account the composition of the committee, the work to be performed, and the procedures to be followed in completing the study.
Disclosure of Conflict of Interest: Deidre Strand
The conflict of interest policy of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (http://www.nationalacademies.org/coi) prohibits the appointment of an individual to a committee authoring a Consensus Study Report if the individual has a conflict of interest that is relevant to the task to be performed. An exception to this prohibition is permitted if the National Academies determines that the conflict is unavoidable and the conflict is publicly disclosed. A determination of a conflict of interest for an individual is not an assessment of that individual's actual behavior or character or ability to act objectively despite the conflicting interest.
Deidre Strand has a conflict of interest in relation to her service on the Committee on Assessment of Technologies for Fuel Economy in Light-Duty Vehicles, Phase 3, because she is the Chief Scientific Officer of Wildcat Discovery Technologies (a battery material discovery firm.
The National Academies has concluded that in order for the committee to accomplish the tasks for which it was established, it must include a committee member with current experience managing a research and development portfolio focused on emerging battery chemistries and the implications of battery performance for integration into the vehicle market. As her biographical summary makes clear, Dr. Strand has extensive current experience in the newest battery chemistries developed across many industries, including for the automotive, cell phone, and laptop computer industries.
The National Academies has determined that the experience and expertise of Dr. Strand is needed for the committee to accomplish the task for which it has been established. The National Academies could not find another available individual with the equivalent experience and expertise who does not have a conflict of interest. Therefore, the National Academies has concluded that the conflict is unavoidable.
The National Academies believes that Dr. Deidre Strand can serve effectively as a member of the committee, and the committee can produce an objective report, taking into account the composition of the committee, the work to be performed, and the procedures to be followed in completing the study.
Disclosure of Conflict of Interest: Ulrich Kranz
The conflict of interest policy of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (http://www.nationalacademies.org/coi) prohibits the appointment of an individual to a committee authoring a Consensus Study Report if the individual has a conflict of interest that is relevant to the task to be performed. An exception to this prohibition is permitted if the National Academies determines that the conflict is unavoidable and the conflict is publicly disclosed. A determination of a conflict of interest for an individual is not an assessment of that individual's actual behavior or character or ability to act objectively despite the conflicting interest.
Ulrich Kranz has a conflict of interest in relation to his service on the Committee on Assessment of Technologies for Improving Fuel Economy of Light-Duty Vehicles, Phase 3 because he is the Chief Technology Officer at Evelozcity, an electric vehicle startup company.
The National Academies has concluded that in order for the committee to accomplish the tasks for which it was established, its membership must include current experience with leading electrified powertrain programs at a major automaker, including leading the integration of electrified powertrains into a company’s vehicle portfolio and its worldwide market. As his biographical summary makes clear, Ulrich Kranz has deep current experience in the automotive industry, including in the launch of vehicle programs into new markets, automotive manufacturing of entire product lines, and leading integration, marketing and commercialization of advanced electrified technologies.
The National Academies has determined that the experience and expertise of Mr. Kranz is necessary for the committee to accomplish the task for which it has been established. The National Academies could not find another available individual with the equivalent experience and expertise who does not have a conflict of interest. Therefore, the National Academies has concluded that the conflict is unavoidable.
The National Academies believes that Mr. Kranz can serve effectively as a member of the committee, and the committee can produce an objective report, taking into account the composition of the committee, the work to be performed, and the procedures to be followed in completing the study.
Committee Membership Roster Comments
Randa Radwan has been added to the committee.
Nigel Clark has been removed from the committee.
Ulrich Kranz has been added to the committee.
Sponsors
Department of Transportation
Staff
Elizabeth Zeitler
Lead
Catherine Wise
Jasmine Victoria Bryant
John Holmes
Rebecca DeBoer
Brent Heard
Kasia Kornecki