Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism

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The United States and the world face serious threats to nuclear stability and peace, now and in the coming decades. Within the nuclear arena, U.S. policy makers will need to make strategic decisions related to nuclear risks to assist with long-term planning as well as responding in real time to unanticipated events. The occurrence of unanticipated nuclear events is expected to increase as more countries develop, expand, or field nuclear energy capability; more countries consider development of nuclear weapon capability and new nuclear weapon states emerge; and nuclear weapon states expand their nuclear arsenals.

At the request of the Department of Defense, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine established and managed the Committee on Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism to explore U.S. government methods for assessing nuclear war and nuclear terrorism risks and how those assessments are used to develop strategy and policy. This publication is the unclassified Phase 2 version of the final classified report. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism: Phase II builds on an earlier Phase I unclassified report. This book expands upon the use of analytical methods to assess the risks of nuclear terrorism and nuclear war and the role such approaches may play in U.S. security strategy.

Publication information

60 pages · 8.5 x 11 · paperback
ISBN Paperback: 0-309-71825-2
ISBN Ebook: 0-309-71826-0
DOI: https://doi.org/10.17226/27745

Suggested citation

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism: Phase II (Expanded Abbreviated Report of the CUI Version). Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.

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William C. Ostendorff

William C. Ostendorff (U.S. Navy-retired) joined the Naval Academy’s Political Science Department as the Class of 1960 Distinguished Visiting Professor in National Security in August 2016. Captain Ostendorff served as Principal Deputy Administrator at the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) in the Bush Administration (2007-2009) and as a Commissioner at the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC, 2010-2016) in the Obama Administration prior to joining the Naval Academy faculty. From 2003 to 2007, he was a member of the staff of the House Armed Services Committee. Captain Ostendorff was an officer in the US Navy from 1976 until he retired in 2002. Entering the Rickover Nuclear Navy, he served on six submarines. During his naval career, he commanded a nuclear attack submarine, a nuclear attack submarine squadron and served as Director of the Division of Mathematics and Science at the US Naval Academy. His military decorations include four awards of the Legion of Merit and numerous unit and campaign awards. He earned a bachelor degree in systems engineering from the United States Naval Academy, a law degree from the University of Texas and a master’s in international and comparative law from Georgetown University.

M. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell

Dr. M. Elisabeth Pate-Cornell is Burt and Deedee McMurtry Professor and Chair of the Department of Management Science and Engineering at Stanford University. Her specialty is engineering risk analysis with application to complex systems (space, medical). Her research has focused on explicit consideration of human and organizational factors in the analysis of failure risks, and recently on the use of game theory in risk analysis. Applications in the last few years have included counter-terrorism and nuclear counter-proliferation problems. She is a member of several boards, including Aerospace, Draper, and InQtel. She was a member of the President’s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board until December 2008. She received a Ph.D. in engineering economic systems from Stanford University. Dr. Pate-Cornell was elected to the National Academy of Engineering in 1995.

Vicki M. Bier

Dr. Vicki Bier recently retired from a joint appointment as Professor in the Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering and the Department of Engineering Physics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. She directed the Center for Human Performance and Risk Analysis (formerly the Center for Human Performance in Complex Systems) from 1995 to 2021. She has over 40 years of experience in risk analysis for the nuclear power, chemical, petrochemical, and aerospace industries, as well as homeland security and critical-infrastructure protection. Dr. Bier’s recent research has focused on applications of risk analysis and related methods to problems of security, critical infrastructure protection, and emergency management. Dr. Bier received the Women’s Achievement Award from the American Nuclear Society in 1993, and was elected a Fellow of the Society for Risk Analysis in 1996, from which she received the Distinguished Achievement Award in 2007. She is also a Past President of the Decision Analysis Society, and editor-in-chief of the society’s flagship journal, Decision Analysis. She has participated in panels, committees, and subcommittees of the National Research Council dealing with radioactive-waste management, and a committee to review the Department of Homeland Security’s approach to risk analysis, and served on the Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications from 2014-2016. She received a PhD in operations research from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1983, and a BS in mathematical sciences from Stanford University in 1976.

Monya E. Bunn

Ms. M. Elaine Bunn is a consultant on strategic issues, with 40 years’ experience in the U.S. government working on defense policy. She is based in Washington, DC. She addresses international audiences on nuclear policy, extended deterrence, and missile defense. Her writings include articles and book chapters on deterrence, assurance of allies, strategic planning, nuclear policy, missile defense, arms control, and preemption. She frequently serves as a mentor for university students to mid-career professionals, including through the Project for Emerging Leaders at the Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction, National Defense University, and the Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI) at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. She is a non-resident Senior Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London and member of the Nuclear Deterrence External Advisory Board at Sandia National Laboratory. Bunn served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear and Missile Defense Policy (DASD/NMD) from 2013 to early 2017. Responsibilities included defining requirements for future capabilities, reviewing and adjusting operational planning, and leading extended deterrence discussions with allies.
Prior to being appointed DASD/NMD, Bunn was a Distinguished Research Fellow in the Center for Strategic Research at National Defense University’s Institute for National Strategic Studies, where she headed a project on future strategic concepts.
Before joining INSS, she was a senior executive in the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD), where she worked from 1980 to 2000 in international security policy, beginning as a Presidential Management Intern. Bunn was a visiting fellow at the RAND Corporation 1998-2000. She was involved with the 1994, 2001 and 2010 Nuclear Posture Reviews. She began her Washington career as an intern for Sen. Sam Nunn in 1974. Bunn, a 1988 graduate of the National War College, received an M.A. from Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in 1980. She was a Fulbright Scholar at the Université de Neuchâtel, Switzerland in 1974-75, after graduating from the University of Georgia with a B.A. in International Political Communications.

Nancy J. Cooke

Dr. Nancy J. Cooke is a Professor of Human Systems Engineering and is the Director of the Center for Human and Artificial Intelligence and Robot Teaming at ASU. She is trained as a cognitive psychologist and has been doing research on assessing teamwork for nearly 25 years. Cooke received her B.A. in psychology from George Mason University in 1981 and her MA and PhD in Cognitive Psychology from New Mexico State University in 1983/1987. Cooke chaired the National Academies Board on Human Systems Integration from 2012-2016 and was a member of the Consensus Study on Safety and Security of Commercial Spent Nuclear Fuel Storage in 2006.

Raymond Jeanloz

Dr. Raymond Jeanloz is a professor of Earth and planetary science and astronomy at the University of California at Berkeley, and Annenberg Distinguished Visiting Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University. In addition to his scientific research on the evolution of planetary interiors and properties of materials at high pressures, he works at the interface between science and policy in areas related to national and international security, resources and the environment, and education. Dr. Jeanloz is a member of the JASON group that provides technical advice to the U.S. government, and chairs the National Academy of Sciences Committee on International Security and Arms Control; he has served on the Secretary of State’s International Security Advisory Board, and is past chair of the National Research Council (NRC) Board on Earth Sciences and Resources. He is an elected fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Geophysical Union, American Physical Society and Mineralogical Society of America. Dr. Jeanloz holds a Ph.D. from the California Institute of Technology.

Richard W. Mies

Admiral Mies completed a distinguished 35-year career as a nuclear submariner in the Navy and commanded US Strategic Command for four years prior to retirement in 2002. He served as a Senior Vice President of Science Applications International Corporation from 2002-2007. He also served as the Chairman of the Department of Defense Threat Reduction Advisory Committee from 2004-2010 and as Vice Chairman of the Secretary of Energy Advisory Board. He presently serves as the Chairman of the Strategic Advisory Group of US Strategic Command and is a member of the Board of Governors of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and a member of Committee on International Security and Arms Control at the National Academy of Sciences. He completed post-graduate education at Oxford University, the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, and Harvard University.

Gregory Parnell

Dr. Gregory S. Parnell is a Professor of Practice in the Industrial Engineering in the Department of Industrial Engineering and Director of the M.S. in Operations Management (the university’s largest graduate program) and M.S. in Engineering Management programs at the University of Arkansas. His research focuses on decision analysis, risk analysis, systems engineering, and resource allocation for defense; intelligence; homeland security; and environmental management. He is a Professor Emeritus at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point. Previously, he served as a Professor of Systems Engineering at West Point, a Distinguished Visiting Professor at the U.S. Air Force Academy, an Associate Professor at Virginia Commonwealth University, and a Department Head at the Air Force Institute of Technology. Dr. Parnell is a former president of the Decision Analysis Society of the Institute for Operations Research and Management Science (INFORMS) and of the Military Operations Research Society (MORS). He has also served as editor of the Journal of Military Operations Research. Dr. Parnell has participated in four NASEM Committees. He chaired the Committee on Methodological Improvements to the Department of Homeland Security's Biological Agent Risk Analysis (2008) and the Review of the Inspection Programs for Offshore Oil and Gas Operations (2021). He was a member of the Committee on Improving Metrics for the Department of Defense Cooperative Threat Reduction Program (2011), and the Committee on Evaluating the Effectiveness of the Global Nuclear Detection Architecture, (2013). He is a fellow of International Committee for Systems Engineering, INFORMS, MORS, and the Society for Decision Professionals. He received his B.S. in aerospace engineering from the University of Buffalo, his M.E. in industrial and systems engineering from the University of Florida, his M.S. in systems management from the University of Southern California, and his Ph.D. in engineering-economic systems from Stanford University. Dr. Parnell is a retired Air Force Colonel and a graduate of the Industrial College of the Armed Forces.

Scott D. Sagan

Dr. Scott D. Sagan is the Caroline S.G. Munro Professor of Political Science, the Mimi and Peter Haas University Fellow in Undergraduate Education, and Senior Fellow at the Center for International Security and Cooperation and the Freeman Spogli Institute at Stanford University. He also serves as Chairman of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences’ Committee on International Security Studies. Before joining the Stanford faculty, Sagan was a lecturer in the Department of Government at Harvard University and served as special assistant to the director of the Organization of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Sagan is a scholar of nuclear issues and is the author, among other works, of Moving Targets: Nuclear Strategy and National Security (Princeton University Press, 1989); The Limits of Safety: Organizations, Accidents, and Nuclear Weapons (Princeton University Press, 1993); and, with co-author Kenneth N. Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: An Enduring Debate (W.W. Norton, 2012). Recent publications include “Does the Noncombatant Immunity Norm Have Stopping Power?” with Benjamin A. Valentino in International Security (Fall 2020); “Why the atomic bombing of Hiroshima would be illegal today” with Katherine E. McKinney and Allen S. Weiner in The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (July 2020); and “Armed and Dangerous: When Dictators Get the Bomb” in Foreign Affairs (October 2018). In 2017, Sagan received the International Studies Association’s Susan Strange Award which recognizes the scholar whose “singular intellect, assertiveness, and insight most challenge conventional wisdom and intellectual and organizational complacency" in the international studies community. Sagan was the recipient of the National Academy of Sciences William and Katherine Estes Award in 2015, for his work addressing the risks of nuclear weapons use and the causes of nuclear proliferation.

Henry H. Willis

Dr. Henry H. Willis is a senior policy researcher at the RAND Corporation and a professor of policy analysis at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. He is a recognized expert in homeland security risk management. Willis' recent work analyzes terrorism warning indicators; border security efforts; critical infrastructure resilience; and national preparedness to chemical, biological, nuclear, and radiological attacks. Willis is an active contributor to policy research and is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and the Risk Sciences Committee of the Society for Risk Analysis. Through his work he testified before Congress; served on several committees of the National Academy of Sciences; advised government agencies across the United States, Europe, Australia, and the United Arab Emirates; and published dozens of journal articles, reports, and op-eds on applying risk analysis to homeland and national security policy. His work in homeland security policy evolved from his work on program evaluation at the White House Office of Management and Budget and infrastructure design as a water and wastewater engineer. He earned his Ph.D. in engineering and public policy at Carnegie Mellon University.

Alyson G. Wilson

Dr. Alyson Wilson is the associate vice chancellor for National Security and Special Research Initiatives at North Carolina State University. She is also a professor in the Department of Statistics, principal investigator for the Laboratory for Analytic Sciences, and director of the Data Science Initiative. She is a Fellow of the American Statistical Association and the American Association for the Advancement of Science. Her research interests include statistical reliability, Bayesian methods, and the application of statistics to problems in defense and national security. Prior to joining NC State, Dr. Wilson was a research staff member at the IDA Science and Technology Policy Institute in Washington, DC (2011-2013); an associate professor in the Department of Statistics at Iowa State University (2008-2011); a technical staff member in the Statistical Sciences Group at Los Alamos National Laboratory, where she continues as a guest scientist; and a senior statistician and operations research analyst with Cowboy Programming Resources (1995-1999). Dr. Wilson is the winner of the American Statistical Association Section on Statistics in Defense and National Security Distinguished Achievement Award (2018), NC State Alumni Association Outstanding Research Award (2017), and the Army Wilks Memorial Award (2015). In addition to numerous publications, Dr. Wilson has co-authored a book, Bayesian Reliability, and has co-edited two other books, Statistical Methods in Counterterrorism: Game Theory, Modeling, Syndromic Surveillance, and Biometric Authentication and Modern Statistical and Mathematical Methods in Reliability. She has participated in seven previous National Academies’ studies, including the Committee on Methodological Improvements to the Department of Homeland Security's Biological Agent Risk Analysis. Dr. Wilson received her Ph.D. in Statistics from Duke University.

Philip Zelikow

Dr. Philip Zelikow is the White Burkett Miller Professor of History at the University of Virginia. His scholarship focuses on critical episodes in American and world history. An attorney and former career diplomat who has served at all levels of American government, his federal service includes work in the five administrations from Reagan through Obama. He has also led bipartisan commissions, serving as the executive director of the 9/11 Commission and, before that, as executive director of the Carter-Ford commission on federal election reform, and currently leads a national planning group for a commission on the Covid pandemic crisis.

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Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism

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