Alist of several modeling software packages is provided below. User guides, source codes, and examples using the models can be downloaded from the Web sites of the agency that developed the model. Models are updated and revised regularly and Internet addresses are often updated as well. Each agency also has a search engine as part of its home page, which should assist in locating this information as such changes are made.
TABLE A-1 Sources and Targets of Hazard Assessment Models
|
Model |
Targeted Hazard |
Reference/Source |
|
SCREEN3D |
Airborne toxic plume dispersion |
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) http://www.epa.gov/scram001/t23.htm |
|
Industrial Source Complex (ISC3) |
Airborne toxic plume dispersion |
|
|
Industrial Waste Air Model (IWAIR) |
Airborne toxic health risks |
USEPA http://www.epa.gov/epaoswer/nonhw/industd/air/user.pdf |
|
Areal Locations of Hazardous Atmosphere (ALOHA) |
Airborne toxic plume dispersion |
|
|
Urban Airshed Model (UAM) |
Air quality (industrial emissions) |
|
|
HAPEM |
Hazardous air pollutant exposure |
|
|
Mobile6 |
Vehicle emissions |
|
|
AVN |
Hurricane track forecast |
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutmodels.html |
|
NOGAPS |
Hurricane track forecast |
|
|
UKMET |
Hurricane track forecast |
|
|
GFDL |
Hurricane track forecast |
|
|
GFDI |
Hurricane track forecast |
|
LBAR |
Hurricane track forecast |
|
|
CLIPER |
Hurricane track forecast |
|
|
BAM |
Hurricane track forecast |
|
|
NHC90/NHC91 |
Hurricane track forecast |
|
|
SHIFOR |
Hurricane intensity forecast |
|
|
SHIPS |
Hurricane intensity forecast |
|
|
GFDL |
Hurricane intensity forecast |
|
|
GFDI |
Hurricane intensity forecast |
|
|
TTSURGE and SURGE |
Storm surges of landfalling hurricanes |
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) http://www.fema.gov/mit/tsd/EN_coast.htm |
|
SLOSH |
Storm surge inundation zones based on “typical” hurricanes |
Jelesnianski et al. (1992) (with annual updates) |
|
UVA/CERC Storm Risk |
Coastal erosion |
Anders et al. (1989), Dolan and Davis (1994) |
|
Storm-induced BEAch Change (SBEACH) |
Coastal erosion |
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers http://chl.wes.army.mil/software/aces/sbeach |
|
Coastal Erosion Information System |
Coastal erosion |
Dolan and Kimball (1988), Gornitz et al. (1994) |
|
Model |
Targeted Hazard |
Reference/Source |
|
Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) |
Soil loss and runoff |
U.S. Department of Agriculture http://topsoil.nserl.purdue.edu/nserlweb/weppmain/weppdocs.html |
|
Distributed Rainfall-Runoff Model (DR3M) |
Rainfall-runoff |
U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) http://water.usgs.gov/software/dr3m.html |
|
Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) |
Rainfall-runoff |
|
|
Watershed Analysis and Detention Design Model (HEC-1) |
Rainfall-runoff with application to reservoir and dam design parameters |
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers— Hydrologic Engineering Center http://www.hec.usace.army.mil/software/ |
|
Flood Flow Frequency |
Flooding |
Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data (1982) |
|
Flood Forecasting |
Flooding |
Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data (1982) |
|
Eta, NGM, AVN, meso-Eta, and RUC |
Flooding—quantitative precipitation forecasts |
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center and National Weather Service http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/fcst2.html |
|
Flood Damage Analysis package (HEC-FDA) |
Social cost of flood events—potential damage |
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers— Hydrologic Engineering Center http://www.hec.usace.army.mil/software/ |
|
Interior Flood Hydrology Model (HEC-IFH) |
Levee system design |
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers— Hydrologic Engineering Center http://www.hec.usace.army.mil/software/ |
|
DAMBRK |
Dam-break flood forecasting |
National Weather Service http://hsp.nws.noaa.gov/oh/hrl/rvrmech/rvrmain.htm |
|
BREACH |
Earthen dam breaches |
National Weather Service http://hsp.nws.noaa.gov/oh/hrl/rvrmech/rvrmain.htm |
|
Enhanced Stream Water Quality Model (QUAL2E) |
Water quality |
|
|
HEC5-Q |
Water quality |
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers— Hydrologic Engineering Center http://www.hec.usace.army.mil/software/ |
|
Agricultural Non-Point Source Pollution Model (AGNPS) |
Water quality |
U.S. Department of Agriculture http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/water/factsheets/agnps.html |
|
Better Assessment Science Integrating Point and Non-point Sources (BASINS) |
Water quality |
|
|
HEC-6 and HEC-18 |
Sediment transport |
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers http://www.hec.usace.army.mil/software/ |
|
Percent of Normal |
Drought |
Willeke et al. (1994) |
|
Deciles |
Drought |
Gibbs and Maher (1967) |
|
Palmer Drought Severity Index |
Drought |
Palmer (1965), Alley (1984) |
|
Standardized Precipitation Index |
Drought |
McKee et al. (1993) |
|
Crop Moisture Index |
Drought |
Palmer (1968) |
|
Model |
Targeted Hazard |
Reference/Source |
|
Surface Water Supply Index |
Drought |
Shafer and Dezman (1982), Doesken et al. (1991) |
|
National Rainfall Index |
Drought |
Gommes and Petrassi (1994) |
|
Dependable Rains |
Drought |
Le Houérou et al. (1993) |
|
Keetch-Byram Drought Index |
Wildfire |
Keetch and Byram (1968) |
|
Haines Index |
Wildfire |
Haines (1988) |
|
National Fire Danger Rating System |
Wildfire |
Burgan (1988), Deeming et al. (1977) |
|
WHIMS |
Wildfire hazard information |
Boulder County, Colorado http://www.boco.co.gov/gislu/whims.html |
|
RISK |
Earthquake |
Bender and Perkins (1987) |
|
NEHRP Effective Peak Acceleration |
Earthquake |
Algermissen et al. (1982), Frankel et al. (1997a, b) |
|
NEHRP Effective Peak Velocity |
Earthquake |
Algermissen et al. (1982) |
|
Heat/Health Index |
Heat/health warning—watch system |
Kalkstein et al. (1996) |
|
Consequences Assessment Tool Set (CATS) |
Disaster analysis |
FEMA (1996) http://www.saic.com/products/software/cats/cats.html |
Algermissen, S.T., D. M. Perkins, P. C. Thenhaus, and B. L. Bender. 1982. Probabilistic Estimates of Maximum Acceleration and Velocity in Rock in the Contiguous United States. U.S. Geological Survey, Open File Report 82-1033. Reston, VA: USGS.
Alley, W. M. 1984. The Palmer Drought Severity Index: Limitations and assumptions. Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology 23:1100-1109.
Anders, F., S. Kimball, and R. Dolan. 1989. Coastal Hazards: National Atlas of the United States. Map. Reston, VA: U.S. Geological Survey.
Bender, B., and D. Perkins. 1987. SEISRISK III: A Computer Program for Seismic Hazard Estimation. U.S. Geological Survey Bulletin 1772. Reston, VA: USGS.
Burgan, R. E. 1988. 1988 Revisions to the 1978 National Fire-Danger Rating System. Research Paper SE-273. Asheville, NC: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southeastern Forest Experiment Station.
Deeming, J. E., R. E. Burgan, and J. D. Cohen. 1977. The National Fire-Danger Rating System— 1978. Gen. Tech. Rep. INT-39. Ogden, UT: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Intermountain Forest and Range Experiment Station.
Doesken, N. J., T. B. McKee, and J. Kleist. 1991. Development of a Surface Water Supply Index for the Western United States. Climatology Report No. 91-3. Fort Collins, CO: Colorado State University.
Dolan, R., and R. E. Davis. 1994. Coastal storm hazards. Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 12, Coastal Hazards: Perception, Susceptibility and Mitigation. Coastal Education and Research Foundation, Inc. Pps. 103-114. Charlottesville, VA: The Coastal Education and Research Foundation.
Dolan, R., and S. Kimball. 1988. Coastal Erosion and Accretion: National Atlas of the United States. Reston, VA: USGS.
FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency). 1996. Consequence Assessment Tool Set and Operations Concept. Washington, DC: FEMA Protective Services, Information Technology Services.
Frankel, A., C. Mueller, T. Barnhard, D. Perkins, E. V. Leyendecker, N. Dickman, S. Hanson, and M. Hopper. 1997a. California/Nevada 1996 Seismic Hazard Maps. U.S. Geological Survey, Open-File Report 97-130. Reston, VA: USGS.
Frankel, A., C. Mueller, T. Barnhard, D. Perkins, E. V. Leyendecker, N. Dickman, S. Hanson, and M. Hopper. 1997b. National 1996 Seismic Hazard Maps. U.S. Geological Survey, Open-File Report 97-131. Reston, VA: USGS.
Gibbs, W. J., and J. V. Maher. 1967. Rainfall Deciles as Drought Indicators. Bureau of Meteorology Bulletin No. 48 . Melbourne, Australia: Bureau of Meteorology.
Gommes, R., and F. Petrassi. 1994. Rainfall Variability and Drought in Sub-Saharan Africa Since 1960. Agrometeorology Series Working Paper No. 9. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization.
Gornitz, V. N., R. C. Daniels, T. W. White, and K. R. Birdwell. 1994. The development of a coastal risk assessment database: Vulnerability to sea-level rise in the U.S. Southeast. Journal of Coastal Research 12:327-338.
Haines, D. A. 1988. A lower atmospheric severity index for wildland fire. National Weather Digest 13(2):23-27.
Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data. 1982. Guidelines for Determining Flood Flow Frequency. Bulletin No. 17B of the Hydrology Subcommittee, U.S. Department of Interior. Reston, VA: USGS, Office of Water Data Coordination.
Jelesnianski, C. P., J. Chen, and W. A. Shaffer. 1992. SLOSH: Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes. Technical Report NWS 48. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Kalkstein, L. S., P. F. Jamason, J. S. Greene, J. Libby, and L. Robinson. 1996. The Philadelphia Hot Weather-Health Watch/Warning System: Development and application. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 77:1519-1528.
Keetch, J. J., and G. Byram. 1968. A Drought Index for Forest Fire Control. Research Paper SE-38. Asheville, NC: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southeastern Forest Experiment Station.
Le Houérou, H. N., G. F. Popov, and L. See. 1993. Agro-bioclimatic Classification of Africa. Agrometeorology Series Working Paper No. 6. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization.
McKee, T. B., N. J. Doesken, and J. Kleist. 1993. The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. Preprints, 8th Conference of Applied Climatology, Anaheim, CA, Jan. 17-22, pp. 179-194.
Palmer, W. C. 1965. Meteorological Drought. Research Paper No. 45. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Commerce Weather Bureau.
Palmer, W. C. 1968. Keeping track of crop moisture conditions nationwide. The New Crop Moisture Index. Weatherwise 21:156-161.
Shafer, B. A., and L. E. Dezman. 1982. Development of a Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI) to assess the severity of drought conditions in snowpack runoff areas. Pp. 164-175 in Proceedings of the Western Snow Conference. Fort Collins, CO: Western Snow Conference.
Willeke, G., J. R. M. Hosking, J. R. Wallis, and N. B. Guttman. 1994. The National Drought Atlas. Institute for Water Resources Report No. 94-NDS-4. Alexandria, VA: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.