Improving Information for Social Policy Decisions -- The Uses of Microsimulation Modeling: Volume II, Technical Papers (1991)
Chapter: 7 Evaluations of Microsimulation Models: Literature Review
7
Evaluations of Microsimulation Models: Literature Review
Michael L.Cohen
This chapter presents a short history of the literature on the validation of microsimulation models. The 13 sources cited, while probably not complete, comprise a large majority of the available studies on this topic.1 Given that microsimulation models have been in existence for over 20 years and that during this time at least 6 major and 10–20 minor microsimulation models have been developed,2 it is surprising that little effort has been devoted to determining the likely error present in the models. No doubt there are reports prepared for internal use that I am not aware of, but my impression is that internal reports typically focus on computer software verification or assessment of the accuracy of baseline simulations compared with outside control totals. They are almost certainly not attempts either to compare the projections from microsimulation models with the truth (i.e., to conduct an external validation) or to otherwise
Michael L.Cohen is assistant professor in the School of Public Affairs at the University of Maryland; he served as a consultant to the Panel to Evaluate Microsimulation Models for Social Welfare Programs.
