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Front Matter i-viii
Introduction 1-1
Model Design 2-2
Model Evaluation 3-3
Dynamic Simulation of Income Model 2 (DYNASIM2) 4-4
Social Policy Simulation Database/Model (SPSD/M) 5-5
REFERENCES 6-8
Databases and Methods of Data Enhancement 9-10
INTRODUCTION 11-13
DATA NEEDS FOR MODELING INCOME SUPPORT PROGRAMS 14-16
SURVEY DESIGN OF THE MARCH CPS AND THE SIPP 17-20
Population Coverage 21-25
Household and Individual Nonresponse 26-27
Item Nonresponse 28-32
Reporting Errors 33-36
Sample Size 37-38
Data Delivery 39-40
Income Accounting Period 41-41
Income Detail 42-42
Households and Families Versus Program Filing Units 43-43
Asset Holdings 44-44
Other Variables for Related Policy Issues 45-45
EVALUATION OF ESTIMATES OF PROGRAM PARTICIPANTS FROM CPS AND SIPP 46-49
THE DIVISION OF LABOR FOR PRODUCTION OF DATABASES FROM CPS AND SIPP 50-52
THE SUITABILITY OF CPS AND SIPP FOR INTEGRATED MODELING OF TAXES AND TRANSFERS 53-55
CONCLUSIONS 56-57
REFERENCES 58-61
INTRODUCTION 62-62
File Treatment 63-63
Constrained and Unconstrained Statistical Matching 64-65
Choosing the Matching Variables 66-67
The EM-AF Statistical Match 68-68
Merge File of the Office of Tax Analysis 69-69
1966 Merge File for Household Income Data 70-70
Statistics Canada SCF-FEX Match 71-72
AFDC-Census Match 73-73
Conditional Independence 74-74
Limitations in Modeling 75-75
Reweighting of File B Data Resulting From Statistical Matching 76-76
Iterative Proportional Fitting 77-77
More Data Collection 78-78
Multiple Matching and File Concatenation 79-79
Rough Sensitivity Analysis 80-80
CONCLUDING NOTE 81-82
REFERENCES 83-86
Model Design 87-88
INTRODUCTION 89-89
CONVERTING ANNUAL TO MONTHLY VALUES IN TRIM2, MATH, AND HITSM 90-91
HITSM 92-92
TRIM2 93-93
MATH 94-94
HITSM 95-95
TRIM2 96-96
Input Data 97-97
MATH 98-98
Comment 99-99
Evaluation of Alternative Months Procedures 100-102
Need for Further Validation 103-103
PARTICIPATION FUNCTIONS FOR SSI, AFDC, AND FOOD STAMPS IN TRIM2, MATH, AND HITSM 104-104
TRIM2 105-105
HITSM 106-106
TRIM2 107-108
TRIM2 109-109
MATH 110-110
Evaluation of Alternative Participation Functions 111-112
APPENDIX: PERFORMANCE OF THE AFDC CALIBRATION PROCESS IN TRIM2 113-117
REFERENCES 118-120
THE MODELS 121-121
STARTING DATABASES 122-122
SIMULATION OF LONGITUDINAL HISTORIES 123-125
Labor Force Simulations 126-128
PRISM Pension Coverage and Characteristics 129-129
Interactions Between Pension and Social Security Eligibility and Retirement in PRISM 130-130
Labor Force Simulations 131-131
Retirement in DYNASIM2 132-132
DYNASIM2 Pension Coverage and Characteristics 133-133
CONCLUSIONS 134-135
REFERENCES 136-138
Computing Technology 139-140
INTRODUCTION 141-141
Layered Structure 142-143
Single Period Versus Future Projections 144-144
Static Versus Dynamic Simulation 145-145
Historical Background 146-147
History 148-148
Database Creation 149-150
Database Structure and Size 151-154
SPSD/M Parameters 155-155
Model Execution 156-157
Comparing Model Runs 158-158
Output Facilities 159-159
Other Software Facilities 160-160
Availability, Customer Base, and Technical Support 161-161
Future Work 162-162
History 163-167
Database Creation 168-168
Database Structure and Size 169-171
Database Adjustment 172-172
Operating Characteristics 173-173
TRIM2 Parameters 174-174
Model Execution 175-175
Output Facilities 176-176
Other Software Facilities 177-177
Operating Environment 178-178
Comparison 179-184
Background 185-185
Informed Industry Observers 186-186
Specific Technical Product Information 187-187
Advances in Computer Processors 188-188
Advances in Primary Memory 189-189
Advances in Computer Systems Architecture 190-191
Economic Studies of Industry Performance 192-196
Assessment and Predictions 197-198
Nature of the Demand for Microanalytic Simulation Models 199-199
Factors Affecting the Availability of Microsimulation Models 200-200
Functions of a System for Microanalytic Simulation 201-201
Larger Model Execution on the Desktop 202-203
Advances in Software Methodology 204-204
Model Specification 205-213
Object-Oriented Computing 214-214
Simulation Module Consistency 215-215
Advantages of Desktop-Based Environments 216-216
Summary 217-217
RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS 218-219
Short-Term Issues 220-220
Porting TRIM2 to an MS-DOS Environment 221-221
Translating TRIM2 Modules to the C Language 222-222
Benefits of Porting TRIM2 223-224
Medium-Term Issues 225-229
REFERENCES AND BIBLIOGRAPHY 230-234
Model Validation 235-236
6 Variance Estimation of Microsimulation Models Through Sample Reuse 237-237
COMPUTATIONS OF MICROSIMULATION MODELS 238-238
NONPARAMETRIC VARIANCE ESTIMATION 239-244
MODELS AND VARIABILITY 245-246
BOOTSTRAPPING MICROSIMULATION MODELS 247-249
Incorporation of Sensitivity Analyses - Measurement of Total Uncertainty 250-250
Number of Replications Needed 251-251
Use of Resampling Techniques in Constructing Confidence Intervals 252-252
REFERENCES 253-254
7 Evaluations of Microsimulation Models: Literature Review 255-255
HENDRICKS AND HOLDEN (1976A) 256-256
HENDRICKS AND HOLDEN (1976B) 257-257
GENERAL ACCOUNTING OFFICE (1977) 258-259
HOLDEN (1977) 260-260
HAYES (1982) 261-262
JEFFERSON (1983) 263-263
HAVEMAN AND LACKER (1984) 264-264
ICF, INC. (1987) 265-266
KORMENDI AND MEGUIRE (1988) 267-267
BETSON (1988) 268-268
DOYLE AND TRIPPE (1989) 269-269
BEEBOUT AND HAWORTH (1989) 270-270
BURTLESS (1989) 271-271
DISCUSSION 272-273
REFERENCES 274-275
8 A Validation Experiment with TRIM2 276-276
OVERVIEW OF THE EXPERIMENT 277-277
CHOICE OF MODEL YEAR, PROGRAM YEAR, AND COMPARISON VALUES 278-278
CHOICE OF COMPONENT MODULES AND ALTERNATIVES FOR STUDY IN TRIM2 279-280
OUTPUTS EXAMINED 281-282
Total Variability Due to Use of Alternative Modules 283-285
Analysis of Variance Methods for Sensitivity Analysis and External Validation 286-290
Nonparametric Analysis 291-294
Analysis of Categorical Data 295-297
MAJOR CONCLUSIONS 298-299
LIMITATIONS OF THE PRESENT STUDY 300-300
DESIGN OF EXPERIMENT ISSUES 301-301
REFERENCES 302-304
INTRODUCTION 305-306
NATURE OF POPULATION PROJECTION MODELS 307-308
VALIDATING POPULATION PROJECTIONS 309-309
Sensitivity Analysis 310-313
External Validation 314-318
CONFIDENCE INTERVALS 319-324
CONCLUSIONS 325-325
REFERENCES 326-330
Model Documentation 331-332
INTRODUCTION 333-334
PURPOSES OF DOCUMENTATION AND EVALUATION CRITERIA 335-335
Critique 336-337
Suggestions 338-338
Critique 339-342
Suggestions 343-343
Critique 344-344
Suggestions 345-345
COMPARISONS WITH IEEE STANDARDS 346-350
REFERENCES 351-351

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Improving Information for Social Policy Decisions -- The Uses of Microsimulation Modeling: Volume II, Technical Papers (1991)

Chapter: Databases and Methods of Data Enhancement

Databases and Methods of Data Enhancement

My Academies

Improving Information for Social Policy Decisions -- The Uses of Microsimulation Modeling: Volume II, Technical Papers (1991)

Chapter: Databases and Methods of Data Enhancement

Databases and Methods of Data Enhancement