Improving Information for Social Policy Decisions -- The Uses of Microsimulation Modeling: Volume II, Technical Papers (1991)
Chapter: 8 A Validation Experiment with TRIM2
8
A Validation Experiment with TRIM2
Michael L.Cohen, Lynne Billard, David M.Betson, and Eugene P.Ericksen
Microsimulation models, of which the Transfer Income Model 2 (TRIM2) is a leading example, as well as other modeling approaches, are currently used to supply the Congress, the executive branch, and others in the policy process with projections of costs and caseloads of tax and transfer programs. Unfortunately, the models are rarely validated. For this reason the Panel to Evaluate Microsimulation Models for Social Welfare Programs decided to conduct, in conjunction with the Urban Institute, an illustrative validation of TRIM2 for a particular federal program, Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC), which we refer to as the “experiment.”1
Michael Cohen is assistant professor in the School of Public Affairs at the University of Maryland; he served as a consultant to the panel. Lynne Billard, a professor of statistics at the University of Georgia, David Betson, an associate professor of economics at the University of Notre Dame, and Eugene Ericksen, a professor of sociology at Temple University, all served as members of the panel.
