NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
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The project that is the subject of this report was supported by funds from the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, and the Food and Nutrition Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
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PANEL TO EVALUATE MICRO SIMULATION MODELS FOR SOCIAL WELFARE PROGRAMS
ERIC A.HANUSHEK (Chair),
Department of Economics, University of Rochester
DAVID M.BETSON,
Department of Economics, University of Notre Dame
LYNNE BILLARD,
Department of Statistics, University of Georgia
SHELDON DANZIGER,
Institute of Public Policy Studies, University of Michigan
EUGENE P.ERICKSEN,
Department of Sociology, Temple University
THOMAS J.ESPENSHADE,
Office of Population Research, Princeton University
HARVEY GALPER,
KPMG Peat Marwick, Washington, D.C.
LOUIS GORDON,
Department of Mathematics, University of Southern California
KEVIN M.HOLLENBECK,
W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, Kalamazoo, Mich.
GORDON H.LEWIS,
School of Urban and Public Affairs, Carnegie Mellon University
ROBERT MOFFITT,
Department of Economics, Brown University
GAIL R.WILENSKY,
Health Care Financing Administration, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Washington, D.C.*
MICHAEL C.WOLFSON,
Analytical Studies Branch, Statistics Canada
CONSTANCE F.CITRO, Study Director
MICHAEL L.COHEN, Consultant
CHRISTINE M.ROSS, Research Associate
AGNES E.GASKIN, Administrative Secretary
COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL STATISTICS
BURTON H.SINGER (Chair),
Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Yale University
NORMAN M.BRADBURN,
National Opinion Research Center, University of Chicago
RONALD S.BROOKMEYER,
Department of Biostatistics, Johns Hopkins University
MARTIN H.DAVID,
Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin
ANGUS S.DEATON,
Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University
CLAUDIA D.GOLDIN,
Department of Economics, Harvard University
LOUIS GORDON,
Department of Mathematics, University of Southern California
ROBERT M.HAUSER,
Department of Sociology, University of Wisconsin
GRAHAM KALTON,
Survey Research Center, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan
WILLIAM A.MORRILL,
Mathtech, Inc., Princeton, New Jersey
DOROTHY P.RICE,
Department of Social and Behavioral Sciences, School of Nursing, University of California, San Francisco
JOHN E.ROLPH,
The RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, California
DONALD B.RUBIN,
Department of Statistics, Harvard University
KENNETH W.WACHTER,
Department of Statistics, University of California, Berkeley
MIRON L.STRAF, Director
FLORENCE E.WOLF, Administrative Assistant
Contents
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Introduction |
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Databases for Microsimulation: A Comparison of the March CPS and SIPP |
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Statistical Matching and Microsimulation Models |
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Alternative Model Designs: Program Participation Functions and the Allocation of Annual to Monthly Values in TRIM2, MATH, and HITSM |
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DYNASIM2 and PRISM: Examples of Dynamic Modeling |
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Future Computing Environments for Microsimulation Modeling |
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Variance Estimation of Microsimulation Models Through Sample Reuse |
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Evaluations of Microsimulation Models: Literature Review |
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A Validation Experiment With TRIM2 |
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Evaluating the Accuracy of U.S. Population Projection Models |
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Documentation for Microsimulation Models: A Review of TRIM2, MATH, and HITSM |
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Contents
Volume I: Review and Recommendations
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Summary |
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1 |
Introduction |
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PART I INFORMATION FOR SOCIAL WELFARE POLICY: TOWARD A SECOND REVOLUTION |
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2 |
The Search for Useful Information |
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3 |
Improving the Tools and Uses of Policy Analysis |
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Appendix: Models, Uncertainty, and Confidence Intervals |
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PART II THE ROLE OF MICROSIMULATION AS A POLICY ANALYSIS TOOL |
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4 |
Microsimulation Models: Then and Now |
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5 |
Databases for Microsimulation |
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6 |
Model Design and Development |
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7 |
Computing Technology and Microsimulation |
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8 |
Microsimulation Modeling of Health Care, Retirement Income, and Tax Policies |
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