Climate Security
in South Asia

_____

Apurva Dave and Hannah Stewart, Rapporteurs

Climate Security Roundtable

Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate

Division on Earth and Life Studies

Intelligence Community Studies Board

Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

Board on Environmental Change and Society

Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

Proceedings of a Workshop

NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001

This activity was supported by a contract between the National Academy of Sciences and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project.

International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-70138-9
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-70138-4
Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/26926

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Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Climate Security in South Asia: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/26926.

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WORKSHOP PLANNING COMMITTEE

ANJALI MAHENDRA (Chair), World Resources Institute

HARIHARASUBRAMANIAN ANNAMALAI, University of Hawaii

CASEY BROWN, University of Massachusetts Amherst

VIRGINIA BURKETT, United States Geological Survey

MELISSA D. HO, World Wildlife Fund

SHEILA JASANOFF (through Sept. 27, 2022), Harvard University

KATHARINE MACH, University of Miami

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff

JULIE PAVLIN, Senior Board Director, Board on Global Health, Health and Medicine Division

EMILIE RYAN-CASTILLO, Research Assistant, Board on Global Health, Health and Medicine Division

LINDSAY MOLLER, Senior Program Assistant, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Division on Earth and Life Studies

CLIMATE SECURITY ROUNDTABLE

BARBARA SCHAAL (Co-chair; NAS¹), Washington University in St. Louis

KAREN SETO (Co-chair; NAS²), Yale University

ANA BARROS (NAE³), University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign

MORGAN BAZILIAN, Colorado School of Mines

TEGAN BLAINE, U.S. Institute of Peace

NADYA BLISS, Arizona State University

CASEY BROWN, University of Massachusetts Amherst

EDWARD CARR, Clark University

KRISTIE EBI, University of Washington

MELISSA D. HO, World Wildlife Fund

SHEILA JASANOFF, Harvard University

MAUREEN LICHTVELD (NAM⁴), University of Pittsburgh

SUSAN LOZIER, Georgia Institute of Technology

KATHARINE MACH, University of Miami

ANJALI MAHENDRA, World Resources Institute

GALEN MCKINLEY, Columbia University

VERNON MORRIS, Arizona State University

RICHARD NEWELL, Resources for the Future

BRIAN O’NEILL, Joint Global Change Research Institute

JULIE PULLEN, Propeller Ventures

AARON SALZBERG, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

SHERI WEISER, University of California, San Francisco

Members Ex Officio—Representatives of Department of the Treasury

CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY

DEFENSE INTELLIGENCE AGENCY

DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY (Office of Intelligence and Counterintelligence)

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY (Office of Science)

DEPARTMENT OF STATE

ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY

NATIONAL AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ADMINISTRATION

NATIONAL GEOSPATIAL-INTELLIGENCE AGENCY

NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION

OFFICE OF NAVAL RESEARCH

OFFICE OF THE DIRECTOR OF NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE

UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY

___________________

¹ Elected member, National Academy of Sciences.

² Elected member, National Academy of Sciences.

³ Elected member, National Academy of Engineering.

⁴ Elected member, National Academy of Medicine.

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff

APURVA DAVE, Senior Program Officer, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Division on Earth and Life Studies

KYLE ALDRIDGE, Senior Program Assistant, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Division on Earth and Life Studies

TONY FAINBERG, Senior Program Officer, Intelligence Community Studies Board, Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

ADRIAN WOLFBERG, Senior Program Officer, Intelligence Community Studies Board, Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

HANNAH STEWART, Associate Program Officer, Board on Environmental Change and Society, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

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Reviewers

This Proceedings of a Workshop was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published proceedings as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the process.

We thank the following individuals for their review of this proceedings:

Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the content of the proceedings nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this proceedings was overseen by BILAL AYYUB, University of Maryland, who was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this proceedings was carried out in accordance with standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the rapporteurs and the National Academies.

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Acknowledgments

The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine’s Division on Earth and Life Studies expresses its sincere gratitude to the following individuals and organizations: to our planning committee members, for their commitment, creativity, and enthusiasm in designing the workshop agenda and facilitating the workshop discussions; to our workshop staff team, for their skill and hard work in facilitating the committee’s work and executing its vision; to all of the workshop speakers and participants, for their individual expert contributions to inform and enrich a lively discussion over two days; to our independent reviewers, for their constructive comments and suggestions, which helped ensure that this proceedings meets the National Academies’ standards for their published reports; to our report review staff and coordinator, for shepherding this proceedings through its review process; and to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, for its sponsorship of the workshop, and for the opportunity to serve our nation’s needs.

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Contents

WORKSHOP OVERVIEW

1 INTRODUCTION

Climate and Security in South Asia—Motivation for the Workshop

Key Perspectives from the Climate Security Roundtable

Organization of the Workshop and Proceedings

2 CLIMATE, DEVELOPMENT, AND SECURITY CHALLENGES IN SOUTH ASIA

Security Issues Associated with a Low-Carbon Energy Transition

Climate–Conflict Pathways

3 HISTORICAL CASE STUDIES

Climate Crises and Security Challenges in South Asia

Cyclones in South Asia

Impacts of Climate Change on Pakistan

Participant Discussions

4 POSSIBLE FUTURES

Access to Water Resources and Security Conflicts

Drought and Food Security in South Asia

Human Mobility in a Changing Climate

Participant Discussions

5 TOOLS FOR ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING

Plausible Climate Migration Scenarios

Impact-Based Forecasting

Tools for Climate Predictions and Projections

6 REFLECTING ON CLIMATE SECURITY RISK IN SOUTH ASIA

Examples of Key Elements of a Systems Framework for Climate Security in South Asia

Examples of High-Priority Climate Security Threats in South Asia

Participant Ideas for Analytical Needs

REFERENCES

APPENDIXES

A NATIONAL ACADEMIES CLIMATE SECURITY ROUNDTABLE

B WORKSHOP AGENDA

C WORKSHOP PLANNING COMMITTEE BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCHES

D WORKSHOP SPEAKER BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCHES

BOXES, FIGURES, AND TABLE

BOXES

1-1 Climate Change in South Asia

1-2 Demographic and Socioeconomic Dynamics in South Asia

1-3 Security Dynamics in South Asia

1-4 Workshop Statement of Task

A-1 CSRT Statement of Task

FIGURES

1-1 Map of South Asia region

1-2 Observed impacts on human systems due to climate change

1-3 Mortality per climate-related hazard event (floods, storms, and droughts) between 2010 and 2019 at the national level

1-4 A systems conceptual framework for climate security analysis

1-5 Conceptualizing complex risk

2-1 A schematic showing the energy trilemma

2-2 Maps of the Indus River basin and Brahmaputra River basin

3-1 Historical photos of climate-related security challenges in South Asia

3-2 Examples of climate adaptation actions in Bangladesh

3-3 2022 Pakistan floods

4-1 A conceptual framework for understanding the interactions between natural and societal systems in South Asia and emergent conditions such as human and national security risks

4-2 Impacts of climate change on agricultural and food systems

4-3 Human mobility in a complex world

5-1 Modeling of potential futures for internal migration in South Asia

5-2 A qualitative estimate of skill against timescales, from weather forecasts to seasonal, interannual, and multi-decadal predictions to long-term projections

6-1 CSRT conceptual framework populated with information specific to the South Asia region

TABLE

5-1 Typology of Compound Weather and Climate Events

Acronyms

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