Predicting High-Risk Drivers: Skills Examination and Scoring Guidelines (2025)

Chapter: Appendix: Supplementary Study Details

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Suggested Citation: "Appendix: Supplementary Study Details." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2025. Predicting High-Risk Drivers: Skills Examination and Scoring Guidelines. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/29223.

APPENDIX A
Supplementary Study Details

A table shows data on the List of O E C D Countries.
Long Description.

The title of the table is List of OECD Countries. The countries listed in the table are as follows: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom, and United States.

Suggested Citation: "Appendix: Supplementary Study Details." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2025. Predicting High-Risk Drivers: Skills Examination and Scoring Guidelines. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/29223.
A table shows data on Search terms used during the Task 2 evidence review.
Long Description.

The title of the table is Search Terms Used During the Task 2 Evidence Review. The column headers of the table are 1st Level Search Terms, 1st Operator, 2nd Level Search Terms, 2nd Operator, and 3rd Level Search Terms. The data given in the table column-wise are as follows: Young asterisk driver; teen driver; adolescent driver; New asterisk driver; novice driver; learner driver; AND; Test; Exam; Practical; Theory; Skill asterisk; competenc asterisk; train asterisk; program asterisk; licen asterisk; AND; rationale; justification; requirement; scoring; technique; method; behav asterisk; policy; management; instruct asterisk; examiner; evidence; score asterisk; fault asterisk; error asterisk; mistake asterisk; threshold asterisk; pass asterisk; criteri asterisk. Below the table is the following note: The asterisk is a Boolean operator denoting truncation.

Suggested Citation: "Appendix: Supplementary Study Details." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2025. Predicting High-Risk Drivers: Skills Examination and Scoring Guidelines. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/29223.
Long Description.

Expert Advisory Group Participants: Moderator: Jeffrey Michael, Johns Hopkins University School of Public Health. Panelists (in alphabetical order): Mark Butcher, Dan Cooke, Washington State, Department of Licensing; Don Fisher, University of Massachusetts, Amherst; Bob Hannigan, Driver and Vehicle Standards Agency; Pierro Hirsch, Virage Simulation, Canada; Mark Horswill, University of Queensland, Australia; Neale Kinnear, Humn, United Kingdom; Jacqueline Milani, NHTSA; Bruce Morton, National Institutes for Child Health and Human Development (Emeritus); Teresa Senserrick, University of Western Australia.

Suggested Citation: "Appendix: Supplementary Study Details." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2025. Predicting High-Risk Drivers: Skills Examination and Scoring Guidelines. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/29223.
Long Description.

Selika Josiah Talbott, Autonomous Vehicle Consulting; Emily Thomas, NHTSA; Willem Vlakveld, SWOV, Netherlands; Rebecca Weast, Insurance Institute for Highway Safety.

Suggested Citation: "Appendix: Supplementary Study Details." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2025. Predicting High-Risk Drivers: Skills Examination and Scoring Guidelines. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/29223.
A table shows data on Features Used in the Gradient Boosting Machine to Predict Driving Risk.
Long Description.

The title of the table is Features Used in the Gradient-Boosting Machine to Predict Driving Risk. The column headers of the table are Rank and Test Item. The data given in the table row-wise are as follows: 1: Lane travel DP Vis; Backing DP Vis; 2: Lane travel DP Sig; 3: Parallel parking CP Dis; 4: Backing L S Wide; 5: Lane travel CP Lanes; 6: Parallel parking L S Curb; 7: Backing L S Dis; 8: Mechanical operation DP Sig; 9: Park and start on hill DPWh; 10: Parallel parking DP Unable; 11: Parallel parking L S Joc; 12: General driving performance CP; 13: Hes; 14: Right turns LS Wide; 15: Backing DPStp; 16: Parallel parking CP Cent; 17: Mechanical operation DP Gear; 18: Park and start on hill DPPb; 19: Mechanical operation LS Gear; 20: Parallel parking CP Try; 21: Mechanical operation LSPB; 22: hpRecall; 23: Traffic signal lights DP Vis; 24: Left turns DP Cut; 25: Traffic control devices DP Ftc; 26: Uncontrolled intersections DP Speed; 27: Passing DP Close; 28: Lane travel DPRt; 29: Backing DP Sw; 30: Stop signs or Flashing lights CPSl; 31: Left turns CP Late; 32: Parallel parking LS 1 half; 33: General driving performance DP; 34: Slow General driving performance CP Slow; 35: Backing LS Curb;

Suggested Citation: "Appendix: Supplementary Study Details." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2025. Predicting High-Risk Drivers: Skills Examination and Scoring Guidelines. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/29223.
A table shows data on Features Used in the Gradient Boosting Machine to Predict Driving Risk.
Long Description.

36: Traffic signal lights CPSl; 37: Park and start on hill CP Dis; 38: Left turns DP Pos; 39: Parallel parking DP Curb; 40: Mechanical operation DP Hands; 41: Lane travel DP Curb; 42: Park and start on hill DP Sig; 43: Traffic signal lights CP Hes; 44: Left turns DP Vis; 45: Right turns CP Stop; 46: Left turns LS Wide; 47: Right-of-way DP Row; 48: Parallel parking DP Sig; 49: Park and start on hill LS Curb; 50: hpAssess; 51: Starting DP Vis; 52: Starting DP Sig; 53: Left turns DP Wide; 54: Mechanical operation DP Brk; 55: Park and start on hill LS Control; 56: Right turns CP Lanes; 57: Right-of-way CP Row; 58: Park and start on hill DP Vis; 59: Lane travel C P Weave; 60: Backing DP Wide; 61: Backing DP Sig; 62: Uncontrolled intersections CP Speed; 63: Backing DP Unable; 64: Backing DP Curb; 65: Right turns CP Late; 66: Parallel parking DP Vis; 67: General driving performance DP Attn; 68: Park and start on hill DP Dis; 69: Traffic signal lights DP Yel; 70: Lane travel DP Lanes; 71: Backing L S Weave; 72: Left turns DP Sig; 73: Backing DP 2 Stop; 74: Stop signs or Flashing lights DP Vis;

Suggested Citation: "Appendix: Supplementary Study Details." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2025. Predicting High-Risk Drivers: Skills Examination and Scoring Guidelines. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/29223.
A table shows data on Features Used in the Gradient Boosting Machine to Predict Driving Risk.
Long Description.

75: Mechanical operation DP 1 Hand; 76: Traffic signal lights CP Ror; 77: Left turns CP Stop; 78: Park and start on hill DP Curb; 79: Mechanical operation L S Races; 80: Left turns DP Speed; 81: Following CP Dis; 82: Uncontrolled intersections DP Vis.

Suggested Citation: "Appendix: Supplementary Study Details." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2025. Predicting High-Risk Drivers: Skills Examination and Scoring Guidelines. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/29223.
A table shows data on Features Not Used in the Gradient Boosting Machine to Predict Driving Risk.
Long Description.

The title of the table is Features Not Used in the Gradient-Boosting Machine to Predict Driving Risk. The column headers of the table are Item Number and Test Item. The data given in the table row-wise are as follows: 1: Backing DP Speed; 2: Backing DP Road; 3: Backing LS Cut; 4: Mechanical operation DP Vis; 5: Mechanical operation DP Arm; 6: Mechanical operation DP Pos; 7: Mechanical operation DP Clutch; 8: Mechanical operation LS Clutch; 9: Mechanical operation LS Stall; 10: Mechanical operation LS Start; 11: Mechanical operation LS Control; 12: Mechanical operation LS Spins; 13: Parallel parking DP Cont; 14: Parallel parking DP Thru; 15: Parallel parking DP Road; 16: Left turns CP Lanes; 17: Park and start on hill DP Gear; 18: Park and start on hill DP Control; 19: Park and start on hill LS Joc; 20: Right turns DP Vis; 21: Right turns DP Sig; 22: Right turns DP Speed; 23: Right turns DP Cut; 24: Right turns DP Pos; 25: Right turns DP Wide; 26: Starting DP Curb Uncontrolled intersections CP; 27: Hes; 28: Following DP Close; 29: Traffic control devices CP Stop; 30: Passing DP Vis; 31: Passing DP Sig; 32: Passing DP Wide; 33: Passing DP Left; 34: Passing DP Right; 35: Passing CP Pass Stop signs or Flashing lights DP;

Suggested Citation: "Appendix: Supplementary Study Details." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2025. Predicting High-Risk Drivers: Skills Examination and Scoring Guidelines. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/29223.
A table shows data on Features Not Used in the Gradient Boosting Machine to Predict Driving Risk.
Long Description.

36: 2 Stop; 37: Stop signs or Flashing lights CPCw; 38: Stop signs or Flashing lights CP Int; 39: Traffic signal lights CPCw General driving performance DP; 40: Stop.

Suggested Citation: "Appendix: Supplementary Study Details." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2025. Predicting High-Risk Drivers: Skills Examination and Scoring Guidelines. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/29223.

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Suggested Citation: "Appendix: Supplementary Study Details." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2025. Predicting High-Risk Drivers: Skills Examination and Scoring Guidelines. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/29223.

Abbreviations and acronyms used without definitions in TRB publications:

A4A

Airlines for America

AAAE

American Association of Airport Executives

AASHO

American Association of State Highway Officials

AASHTO

American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials

ACI–NA

Airports Council International–North America

ACRP

Airport Cooperative Research Program

ADA

Americans with Disabilities Act

APTA

American Public Transportation Association

ASCE

American Society of Civil Engineers

ASME

American Society of Mechanical Engineers

ASTM

American Society for Testing and Materials

ATA

American Trucking Associations

CTAA

Community Transportation Association of America

CTBSSP

Commercial Truck and Bus Safety Synthesis Program

DHS

Department of Homeland Security

DOE

Department of Energy

EPA

Environmental Protection Agency

FAA

Federal Aviation Administration

FAST

Fixing Americaʼs Surface Transportation Act (2015)

FHWA

Federal Highway Administration

FMCSA

Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration

FRA

Federal Railroad Administration

FTA

Federal Transit Administration

GHSA

Governors Highway Safety Association

HMCRP

Hazardous Materials Cooperative Research Program

IEEE

Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers

ISTEA

Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act of 1991

ITE

Institute of Transportation Engineers

MAP-21

Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century Act (2012)

NASA

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

NASAO

National Association of State Aviation Officials

NCFRP

National Cooperative Freight Research Program

NCHRP

National Cooperative Highway Research Program

NHTSA

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration

NTSB

National Transportation Safety Board

PHMSA

Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration

RITA

Research and Innovative Technology Administration

SAE

Society of Automotive Engineers

SAFETEA-LU

Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users (2005)

TCRP

Transit Cooperative Research Program

TEA-21

Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century (1998)

TRB

Transportation Research Board

TSA

Transportation Security Administration

U.S. DOT

United States Department of Transportation

Suggested Citation: "Appendix: Supplementary Study Details." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2025. Predicting High-Risk Drivers: Skills Examination and Scoring Guidelines. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/29223.

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Suggested Citation: "Appendix: Supplementary Study Details." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2025. Predicting High-Risk Drivers: Skills Examination and Scoring Guidelines. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/29223.
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Suggested Citation: "Appendix: Supplementary Study Details." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2025. Predicting High-Risk Drivers: Skills Examination and Scoring Guidelines. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/29223.
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Suggested Citation: "Appendix: Supplementary Study Details." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2025. Predicting High-Risk Drivers: Skills Examination and Scoring Guidelines. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/29223.
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Suggested Citation: "Appendix: Supplementary Study Details." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2025. Predicting High-Risk Drivers: Skills Examination and Scoring Guidelines. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/29223.
Page 70
Suggested Citation: "Appendix: Supplementary Study Details." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2025. Predicting High-Risk Drivers: Skills Examination and Scoring Guidelines. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/29223.
Page 71
Suggested Citation: "Appendix: Supplementary Study Details." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2025. Predicting High-Risk Drivers: Skills Examination and Scoring Guidelines. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/29223.
Page 72
Suggested Citation: "Appendix: Supplementary Study Details." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2025. Predicting High-Risk Drivers: Skills Examination and Scoring Guidelines. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/29223.
Page 73
Suggested Citation: "Appendix: Supplementary Study Details." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2025. Predicting High-Risk Drivers: Skills Examination and Scoring Guidelines. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/29223.
Page 74
Suggested Citation: "Appendix: Supplementary Study Details." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2025. Predicting High-Risk Drivers: Skills Examination and Scoring Guidelines. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/29223.
Page 75
Suggested Citation: "Appendix: Supplementary Study Details." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2025. Predicting High-Risk Drivers: Skills Examination and Scoring Guidelines. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/29223.
Page 76
Suggested Citation: "Appendix: Supplementary Study Details." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2025. Predicting High-Risk Drivers: Skills Examination and Scoring Guidelines. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/29223.
Page 77
Suggested Citation: "Appendix: Supplementary Study Details." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2025. Predicting High-Risk Drivers: Skills Examination and Scoring Guidelines. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/29223.
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