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__________________

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TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD 2025 EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE^*

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^* Membership as of August 2025.

BEHAVIORAL TRAFFIC SAFETY COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM

BTSCRP RESEARCH REPORT 16

Predicting High-Risk Drivers

SKILLS EXAMINATION AND SCORING GUIDELINES

Johnathon P. Ehsani

Michelle L. Duren

Jeffrey P. Michael

Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg
School of Public Health

Baltimore, MD

Shaun Helman

Jack L. I. Hitchings

TRL Ltd, UK

Crowthorne, England, UK

Subscriber Categories

Operations and Traffic Management • Safety and Human Factors

Research sponsored by the Governors Highway Safety Association and National Highway Traffic Safety Administration

2025

BEHAVIORAL TRAFFIC SAFETY COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM

Since the widespread introduction of motor vehicles more than a century ago, crashes involving their operation remain a significant public health concern. While there have been enormous improvements in highway design and construction, as well as motor vehicle safety, which have been instrumental in lowering the rate of crashes per million miles in the United States, more than 35,000 people die every year in motor vehicle crashes. In far too many cases, the root causes of the crashes are the unsafe behaviors of motor vehicle operators, cyclists, and pedestrians. Understanding human behaviors and developing effective countermeasures to unsafe ones is difficult and remains a major weakness in our traffic safety efforts.

The Behavioral Traffic Safety Cooperative Research Program (BTSCRP) develops practical solutions to save lives, prevent injuries, and reduce costs of road traffic crashes associated with unsafe behaviors. BTSCRP is a forum for coordinated and collaborative research efforts. It is managed by the Transportation Research Board (TRB) under the direction and oversight of the Governors Highway Safety Association (GHSA) with funding provided by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). Funding for the program was originally established in Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century (MAP-21), Subsection 402(c), which created the National Cooperative Research and Evaluation Program (NCREP). Fixing Americaʼs Surface Transportation (FAST) Act continued the program. In 2017, GHSA entered into an agreement with TRB to manage the research activities, with the program name changed to Behavioral Traffic Safety Cooperative Research Program. The GHSA Executive Board serves as the governing board for the BTSCRP. The Board consists of officers, representatives of the 10 NHTSA regions, and committee and task force chairs. The Research Committee Chair appoints committee members who recommend projects for funding and provide oversight for the activities of BTSCRP. Its ultimate goal is to oversee a quality research program that is committed to addressing research issues facing State Highway Safety Offices. The Executive Board meets annually to approve research projects. Each selected project is assigned to a panel, appointed by TRB, which provides technical guidance and counsel throughout the life of the project. The majority of panel members represent the intended users of the research projects and have an important role in helping to implement the results. BTSCRP produces a series of research reports and other products such as guidebooks for practitioners. Primary emphasis is placed on disseminating BTSCRP results to the intended users of the research: State Highway Safety Offices and their constituents.

BTSCRP RESEARCH REPORT 16

Project BTS-16
ISSN 2766-5976 (Print)
ISSN 2766-5984 (Online)
ISBN 978-0-309-99549-8
Library of Congress Control Number 2025946042

© 2025 by the National Academy of Sciences. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and the graphical logo are trademarks of the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

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Authors herein are responsible for the originality and accuracy of their materials and for obtaining written permissions from publishers or persons who own the copyright to any previously published or copyrighted material used herein.

The National Academy of Sciences (NAS) grants permission to reproduce written material in this publication for classroom and non-commercial purposes subject to the rights of any third parties and appropriate attribution. Permission is given with the understanding that none of the material will be used to imply NAS, TRB, AASHTO, APTA, FAA, FHWA, FTA, GHSA, or NHTSA endorsement of a particular product, method, or practice. For other uses of the written material, users must request permission from the National Academies Press.

NOTICE

The research report was reviewed by the technical panel and accepted for publication according to procedures established and overseen by the Transportation Research Board and approved by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine.

This material is based upon work sponsored by the Governors Highway Safety Association in cooperation with the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration under Agreement No. DTNH2216H00018 or 693JJ92250010. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed or implied in this document are those of the researchers who performed the research and are not necessarily those of the Transportation Research Board; the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; or the program sponsors.

The Transportation Research Board does not develop, issue, or publish standards or specifications. The Transportation Research Board manages applied research projects which provide the scientific foundation that may be used by Transportation Research Board sponsors, industry associations, or other organizations as the basis for revised practices, procedures, or specifications.

The Transportation Research Board; the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; and the sponsors of the Behavioral Traffic Safety Cooperative Research Program do not endorse products or manufacturers. Trade or manufacturersʼ names or logos appear herein solely because they are considered essential to the object of the report.

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BEHAVIORAL TRAFFIC SAFETY COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM

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Learn more about the Transportation Research Board at www.TRB.org.

COOPERATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAMS

CRP STAFF FOR BTSCRP RESEARCH REPORT 16

Monique R. Evans, Director, Cooperative Research Programs

Waseem Dekelbab, Deputy Director, Cooperative Research Programs

Richard A. Retting, Senior Program Officer

Tijhuana Stapleton, Senior Program Assistant

Natalie Barnes, Director of Publications

BTSCRP PROJECT BTS-16 PANEL

Daniel Cooke, Washington State Department of Licensing, Rochester, WA (Chair)

Rick Nelson Birt, District Department of Transportation, Washington, DC

Brian D. Burk, Travis County, Austin, TX

Mark Butcher, Driver Development Project, Olympia, WA

Joseph Arthur Giammona, The Driver Training Group, Inc., Sammamish, WA

Tabatha L. Harris, Tribal Injury Prevention Resource Center, Stillwater, OK

Saleh Ragab Mousa, WSP, Austin, TX

Alison W. Radford, Washington State Department of Licensing, Tenino, WA

Jason (Dayong) Wu, Texas A&M Transportation Institute, Dallas, TX

Kun Xie, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VA

Christine Watson, NHTSA Liaison

Bernardo B. Kleiner, TRB Liaison

AUTHOR ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The research reported herein was performed under BTSCRP Project BTS-16, “Developing Driver Skills Examination and Scoring Guidance for Evaluating and Predicting High Safety Risk Drivers,” by Johns Hopkins University. Dr. Johnathon Ehsani, Associate Professor at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, served as Project Director and Principal Investigator. The other authors from Johns Hopkins University were Dr. Michelle Duren and Dr. Jeffrey Michael. Dr. Shaun Helman and Jack Hitchings from TRL Ltd. in the United Kingdom were also co-authors. The research team would like to acknowledge the following partners for the execution of the experimental trial: Washington State Department of Licensing, 911 Driving Schools, and Cambridge Mobile Telematics.

The authors wish to honor the contribution of the late Amir Modaressanavi, a Johns Hopkins University student who tragically died from a stroke in 2023. Amir was a valued member of the student team that developed the hazard perception application used in this report.

FOREWORD

By Richard A. Retting
Staff Officer
Transportation Research Board

BTSCRP Research Report 16: Predicting High-Risk Drivers: Skills Examination and Scoring Guidelines provides guidance and methods for driving skills examination and scoring that identify high safety risk drivers. The report is based on a comprehensive review of domestic and international, specifically European, driver examination policies and input from an expert panel that provided insights into best practices for driver testing and skill assessment. An experimental trial was conducted with 1,512 teenage learner drivers in which all participants completed baseline surveys, a pre-intervention hazard perception assessment, an immediate post-intervention hazard perception assessment, and a 3-month post-intervention hazard perception assessment. Participants used a smartphone app to measure driving behavior, including distraction, speeding, and hard braking. This report will be of interest to state highway safety offices and other stakeholders concerned with young driver safety.

Motor vehicle crashes are the leading cause of death among teenagers in the United States. Despite significant risks associated with young drivers, current driverʼs licensing exams are not strong predictors of driving safety. The on-road driving skills examination represents a “gateway” from the learner phase to licensure and independent, unsupervised driving. All drivers must pass a skills examination before obtaining a driverʼs license. Ideally, the skills examination should be designed to reliably and consistently identify drivers who pose a high safety risk and need more driving experience before being licensed.

Both NHTSA and the American Association of Motor Vehicle Administrators have called for evaluations of driving skills testing and scoring to help identify pre-licensure drivers who present a higher potential safety risk and to develop a risk profile that the novice driver and others (e.g., parents, driver instructors) can use to guide practice in both the pre- and post-licensure stages.

Under BTSCRP Project BTS-16, “Developing Driver Skills Examination and Scoring Guidance for Evaluating and Predicting High Safety Risk Drivers,” Johns Hopkins University was tasked with developing guidance and methods for driving skills examination and scoring that identify high safety risk drivers and are applicable in all U.S. jurisdictions.

In addition to BTSCRP Research Report 16, the following deliverables can be found on the National Academies Press website (nap.nationalacademies.org) by searching for BTSCRP Research Report 16: Predicting High-Risk Drivers: Skills Examination and Scoring Guidelines:

• A technical memorandum on guidance and methods for driving skills examination and scoring that identify high safety risk drivers
• A technical memorandum on recommendations for additional research
• A PowerPoint presentation of BTSCRP Project BTS-16

CONTENTS

Summary

Chapter 1 Background

Project Objectives

Chapter 2 Research Approach

Method

Expert Panel

Experiment Trial

Experiment Trial Data

Analysis Description

Institutional Review Board

Chapter 3 Results

Task 1: Document and Critique the Current Driving Skills Examination and Scoring Methodologies Used by States

Task 2: Review and Summarize the Driving Skills Examination and Scoring Methodologies Used by Countries in the OECD

Task 3: Identify a Range of Fundamental Driving Skill Sets (e.g., Situational and Self-Awareness, Space and Speed Management, Vehicle Control, Decision Making) Regardless of Automobile Technology and in All Geographies

Task 4: Map the Relationship Between the Fundamental Driving Skill Sets and the Identification of Low versus High Safety Risk Drivers and Provide a Rationale That Identifies How the Skill Sets Are Necessary for Safe Driving

Task 5: Develop a Model Driving Skills Examination Process That Includes Evaluation of Fundamental Driving Skill Sets, Scoring Criteria and Protocols, Examiner Scoring Methodology, Route Selection Criteria, and Procedures for Examination Administration

Task 6: Pilot Test the Model Driving Skills Examination Process and Scoring Protocols in at Least One State

Task 7: Propose Approaches to Measure the Effectiveness of the Model Driving Skills Examination and Scoring Protocols for Identifying High Safety Risk Drivers

Task 8: Identify the Barriers to or Adverse Impacts from the Adoption of the Model Driving Skills Examination and Scoring Methodology

Chapter 4 Conclusions and Suggested Research

Conclusions

Suggested Research

Limitations

Driving Test Recommendations

References

Appendix Supplementary Study Details