SUMMARY
Predicting High-Risk Drivers: Skills Examination and Scoring Guidelines

Background

Motor vehicle crashes remain the leading cause of death among teenagers in the United States, accounting for nearly one-third of all fatalities among individuals aged 15–19 (CDC, 2024). Teen drivers also pose a disproportionate risk to their passengers and others (Tefft, Williams, and Grabowski, 2013). These crashes result in an estimated $4.6 billion in medical costs and lost productivity annually (Blincoe et al., 2015).

Despite the significant risks associated with young drivers, current driver licensing exams have not proved to be strong predictors of driving safety. Most teenagers (97%) pass their driving test within two attempts (Boufous et al., 2011), yet nearly one-third of newly licensed drivers are involved in a crash within their first year (Chapman, Masten, and Browning, 2014). Given these concerns, driver licensing tests offer an opportunity to serve as both a gatekeeping mechanism to prevent high-risk drivers from obtaining licenses and a motivational tool to encourage safer driving behavior.

Objectives

The primary objective of this research was to develop improved guidance and methods for driving skills examination and scoring that could more effectively identify high-risk drivers.

Project Approach

The research team conducted a comprehensive document review of driving examination policies across U.S. states and countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Additionally, an expert panel was convened to provide insights into best practices for driver testing and skill assessment.

An experimental trial was conducted with 1,512 teenage learner drivers in Washington State. Participants were randomly assigned to either an intervention group, which received hazard perception training, or a control group, which did not. All participants completed baseline surveys, a pre-intervention hazard perception assessment (pre-test), an immediate post-intervention hazard perception assessment (post-test 1), and a 3-month post-intervention hazard perception assessment (post-test 2). In addition, participants used a smartphone application to measure driving behavior, including distraction, speeding, and hard braking. The final data source included skills exam performance data for those who completed a skills exam before the end of the data collection phase.

Results

The study found that hazard perception training significantly improved participantsʼ ability to detect and respond to driving hazards. Key findings included the following:

• Immediate and sustained improvement in hazard perception skills. The intervention group demonstrated an immediate increase in hazard perception test scores from a mean of 40 percent to 63 percent, with skills retained in a follow-up assessment 65 days later.
• Reduction in distracted driving behaviors. The intervention group experienced 17 fewer distraction events per 100 miles driven compared with the control group.
• Predictive value of hazard perception testing. Performance on hazard perception test items related to rear-end collisions was associated with high-risk driver classification. Specifically, each 10 percent increase in performance on rear-end hazard perception questions was associated with a 20 percent decrease in the likelihood of being classified as high risk.
• Predictive value of behind-the-wheel testing. Two categories of test items were associated with high-risk driver classification. Items relating to an inability to parallel park or park securely on a hill were associated with a 33 percent increased likelihood of being classified as high risk, while an increase in points relating to lane control and intersection speed was associated with a 29 percent increased likelihood of being classified as high risk.

Conclusion

This research identified the potential for hazard perception training and testing to play a critical role in driver licensing exams. The findings suggest that incorporating hazard perception assessment into the licensing process could encourage safer driving behaviors and better identify high-risk drivers before they obtain their licenses. Analysis of the skills exam found limited predictive value in predicting high-risk drivers. These findings identified components of the exam that could be given greater weight, as well as items that could be eliminated to create space for new components—such as an independent drive—that could give examiners an opportunity to assess driversʼ decision making in traffic and their situational awareness.