Predicting High-Risk Drivers: Skills Examination and Scoring Guidelines (2025)
Chapter: 1 Background
CHAPTER 1
Background
Project Objectives
In the United States, motor vehicle crashes are the leading cause of death for young people, accounting for approximately one-third of all deaths among 15- to 19-year-olds (CDC, 2024). Teenage drivers are not only a risk to themselves, they are also responsible for the largest proportion of deaths among their own passengers, occupants of other vehicles, and pedestrians and cyclists relative to any other age group (Braver and Trempel, 2004). Injuries and deaths resulting from crashes involving teenage drivers are responsible for an estimated $4.6 billion in lifetime medical costs and productivity losses (Blincoe et al., 2015).
While requirements for driver licensing vary from state to state, the majority of drivers must pass a skills examination before obtaining their driverʼs license. The skills examination process represents a ubiquitous but underutilized element of the driver licensing process: the advancement of safety.
In theory, the driver skills exam represents an opportunity to intervene in several ways. First, it should serve a gatekeeping function to keep the highest-risk drivers from advancing to licensure. Second, a challenging driving exam could motivate increased practice, as reflected in the adage, “You practice to the test.” Third, it can serve as a developmental opportunity, whereby novice drivers can identify their strengths and weaknesses and guide improvement. In reality, current driving tests are largely symbolic events. The overwhelming majority of teenagers (97%) pass their driving test after two attempts (Boufous et al., 2011). Of these newly licensed teenagers, approximately one-third crash in the first year of driving (Chapman, Masten, and Browning, 2014). There is also little evidence that current licensing exams influence the amount or quality of practice driving.
Redesigning the driver licensing test is a formidable challenge. Expertise is needed in theories of learning and skill development, driving test development, and scoring methods. Detailed knowledge is also needed of experimental trial methods, particularly of longitudinal study designs that can assess long-term post-test behavioral outcomes. Experience is needed in participant recruitment and retention for experimental research (including obtaining consent from minors under 18) and in data collection and analysis, policy development, and coordination of research with state licensing agencies.
The objective of this research was to develop guidance and methods for driving skills examination and scoring that identify high safety risk drivers, regardless of vehicle technology, and are applicable in all U.S. jurisdictions. The final deliverables for the project included the following:
- A final report documenting the entire project and incorporating all specified deliverables
- Guidance and methods for driving skills examination and scoring that identify high safety risk drivers
- An electronic presentation of the guidance and scoring protocols that can be tailored for specific audiences
- Recommendations for additional research
