Incorporating Shock Events into Aviation Demand Forecasting and Airport Planning (2024)
Chapter: IV Application of the Methodology to Example Airports
PART IV
Application of the Methodology to Example Airports
The shock event methodology previously outlined has been applied to two example, real-life airports to illustrate the application of the methodology and to one illustrative GA airport to demonstrate the methodology on a smaller scale. The two example airports are Birmingham-Shuttlesworth International Airport (Chapter 16) and San Francisco International Airport (Chapter 17).
The two airports differ in size, traffic, and carrier mix and in the way the pandemic impacted their operations. The methodology was applied to a period in the past and as such, the project team has the benefit of hindsight. To the extent possible, the project team tried to work with information that would have been available to the airport management at the time. For example, it is not realistic to expect that a decision-maker could foresee the COVID-19 pandemic as it transpired. However, the possibility of some form of regional or short-term pandemic is more realistic given past examples with SARS and the swine flu.
The purpose of these examples is not to critique the forecasting or planning at these airports but rather to illustrate how the methodology can be applied and how it might affect decision-making. Draft versions of the methodology applications were provided to the airports’ management; their feedback was incorporated into the final versions in this guide. However, most importantly, the approach, workings, and conclusions remain those of the ACRP research team alone and do not purport to reflect the opinions of the airport management.
While these two examples involve commercial airports, the majority of all airports in the United States are small, private-use facilities and only approximately one-quarter of all airports in the United States are under the NPIAS, of which the majority are commercial service airports (FAA 2022). Smaller, GA airports, either publicly or privately owned, may not have the resources available to conduct the full methodology as described in this guide. Therefore, an example of how the methodology can be employed at a small scale with an illustrative GA airport is provided in Chapter 18.
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