Incorporating Shock Events into Aviation Demand Forecasting and Airport Planning
2024

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The COVID-19 pandemic has made clear the vulnerability of aviation and other industries to shock events. While the pandemic is one of the largest events to impact the aviation industry, other previous shock events have also exerted profound impacts on the aviation industry.

ACRP Research Report 272: Incorporating Shock Events into Aviation Demand Forecasting and Airport Planning, from TRB's Airport Cooperative Research Program, provides a methodology to assist airports in identifying and describing relevant shock events, understanding their potential impact on various aspects of the airport business, and developing approaches and strategies to enable the airport to better withstand and respond to shock events if they occur.

Additional materials

Appendix B
TRB Webinar: Planning for Shock Events in Aviation Demand Forecasting

Publication information

168 pages · 8.5 x 11 · paperback
ISBN Paperback: 0-309-72737-5
ISBN Ebook: 0-309-72738-3
DOI: https://doi.org/10.17226/27987

Suggested citation

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. Incorporating Shock Events into Aviation Demand Forecasting and Airport Planning. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.

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Front Matter i-xii
1 Introduction 1-4
I Shock Events and the Aviation Industry 5-6
2 Overview of Shock Events 7-9
3 Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the U.S. Aviation System 10-23
4 Further Examination of the Impacts of COVID-19: Airport Case Studies 24-33
5 Other Shock Events and Their Impacts on Airports and the Aviation Sector 34-48
II Approaches to Addressing Shock Events 49-50
6 Defining and Identifying Shock Events 51-57
7 Understanding and Modeling Shock Events 58-65
8 Addressing and Mitigating Shock Events 66-78
9 Summary of Findings 79-82
III The Systematic Methodology Approach 83-84
10 Introduction and Overview of the Methodology 85-86
11 Step A: Identify Shock Events of Interest 87-92
12 Step B: Develop Scenario Forecasts That Incorporate Shock Events 93-98
13 Step C: Scenario Implementation (or Stress Testing) 99-102
14 Step D: Develop Options for Improved Robustness 103-108
15 Step E: Ongoing Monitoring and Vigilance 109-112
IV Application of the Methodology to Example Airports 113-114
16 Birmingham-Shuttlesworth International Airport 115-124
17 San Francisco International Airport 125-137
18 Illustrative Application of Methodology at a Small Airport 138-140
V Conclusions and Recommendations for Further Research 141-142
19 Conclusions 143-143
Bibliography and References 144-148
Appendix A: Glossary of Key Terms and Abbreviations 149-151
Appendix B: Summary of Relevant Literature Reviewed 152-152
Appendix C: Incorporating Scenario Forecasting into Monte Carlo Simulations 153-158

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Incorporating Shock Events into Aviation Demand Forecasting and Airport Planning (2024)

Chapter: I Shock Events and the Aviation Industry

PART I

Shock Events and the Aviation Industry