Incorporating Shock Events into Aviation Demand Forecasting and Airport Planning (2024)
Chapter: 10 Introduction and Overview of the Methodology
CHAPTER 10
Introduction and Overview of the Methodology
Part III sets out a systematic methodology to understand and address shock events in airport forecasting, management, and planning. In developing this methodology, the research team drew on generalized findings from the research in Parts I and II as well as prior experience in risk identification and risk management exercises in a range of economic sectors. It builds on established methodologies, such as scenario planning, but is tailored to the circumstances and requirements of the airport sector.
The aim of the methodology is to contribute to a more resilient airport business model, by assisting the airport to be better able to have a robust response to shock events.
In developing the methodology, the research team has focused on the following objectives:
- The methodology should be readily incorporated into existing airport practices.
- The approach should be applicable and scalable to all types and sizes of airports.
- The methodology should not require specialized knowledge or training and should be accessible to a wide range of airport practitioners.
- The approach should be a genuine contribution to improving the robustness of airports and not simply be a “checkbox” exercise.
The methodology aims to contribute to a more resilient airport business model by assisting the airport to be better able to have a robust response to shock events, including the development of a ready-to-deploy portfolio of strategies. While not all shock events can be identified or foreseen, the intent is that an airport would be better positioned for these eventualities generally and can benefit from past expertise and experience drawn from the COVID-19 pandemic and other shock events both from within the airport industry as well as other sectors.
Overview of the Methodology
The proposed methodology is made up of five sequential elements as follows:
- Step A: Identify shock events of interest.
- Step B: Develop scenario forecasts that incorporate shock events.
- Step C: Scenario implementation (or stress testing).
- Step D: Develop options for improved robustness.
- Step E: Ongoing monitoring and vigilance.
These steps are described in more detail in Chapters 11 through 15. While the methodology is designed to aid airport processes, it is recognized that additional parties beyond airport management may be involved. For example, air traffic forecasts are often developed by third-party consultants, and, likely, these consultants would also be responsible for the scenario forecasts. Similarly, planning consultants may be involved in various aspects of the methodology.
Scalability of the Methodology
The level of detail and resources incorporated into this methodology will depend on the budget and time available for the airport. Larger commercial airports may seek to conduct an in-depth and comprehensive analysis, folding it into their planning processes, while smaller commercial and GA airports may undertake a high-level, qualitative approach. Both approaches are reasonable and add value in that the organization directly confronts the potential for shock events and implications for airport strategy and planning. Clearly, the more resources that can be dedicated to this methodology, the more comprehensive and detailed the findings will be, but even a simple approach is better than ignoring the issue entirely.
Clearly, the more resources that can be dedicated to this methodology, the more comprehensive and detailed the findings will be, but even a simple approach is better than ignoring the issue entirely.
Fundamentally, the methodology poses the question: What would happen if a shock event occurred, and what can be done to mitigate the impact of these events? While the methodology outlined in the next sections discusses some of the more advanced methods that can be deployed to address this question, consideration is also given to simplified approaches that could be used by small airports or airports with limited time or resources.
