Incorporating Shock Events into Aviation Demand Forecasting and Airport Planning
2024

You must be logged in to download this publication.

Select Book Type

Paperback - $22.50
Ebook - $18.89

Request an exam or desk copy

The COVID-19 pandemic has made clear the vulnerability of aviation and other industries to shock events. While the pandemic is one of the largest events to impact the aviation industry, other previous shock events have also exerted profound impacts on the aviation industry.

ACRP Research Report 272: Incorporating Shock Events into Aviation Demand Forecasting and Airport Planning, from TRB's Airport Cooperative Research Program, provides a methodology to assist airports in identifying and describing relevant shock events, understanding their potential impact on various aspects of the airport business, and developing approaches and strategies to enable the airport to better withstand and respond to shock events if they occur.

Additional materials

Appendix B
TRB Webinar: Planning for Shock Events in Aviation Demand Forecasting

Publication information

168 pages · 8.5 x 11 · paperback
ISBN Paperback: 0-309-72737-5
ISBN Ebook: 0-309-72738-3
DOI: https://doi.org/10.17226/27987

Suggested citation

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. Incorporating Shock Events into Aviation Demand Forecasting and Airport Planning. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.

Import this citation to:

Bibtext
EndNote
Reference manager

First Name
Last Name
Email (required)
I agree to receive emails from the National Academies (required)

We respect your privacy and will never share your information.

Search this publication

Front Matter i-xii
1 Introduction 1-4
I Shock Events and the Aviation Industry 5-6
2 Overview of Shock Events 7-9
3 Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the U.S. Aviation System 10-23
4 Further Examination of the Impacts of COVID-19: Airport Case Studies 24-33
5 Other Shock Events and Their Impacts on Airports and the Aviation Sector 34-48
II Approaches to Addressing Shock Events 49-50
6 Defining and Identifying Shock Events 51-57
7 Understanding and Modeling Shock Events 58-65
8 Addressing and Mitigating Shock Events 66-78
9 Summary of Findings 79-82
III The Systematic Methodology Approach 83-84
10 Introduction and Overview of the Methodology 85-86
11 Step A: Identify Shock Events of Interest 87-92
12 Step B: Develop Scenario Forecasts That Incorporate Shock Events 93-98
13 Step C: Scenario Implementation (or Stress Testing) 99-102
14 Step D: Develop Options for Improved Robustness 103-108
15 Step E: Ongoing Monitoring and Vigilance 109-112
IV Application of the Methodology to Example Airports 113-114
16 Birmingham-Shuttlesworth International Airport 115-124
17 San Francisco International Airport 125-137
18 Illustrative Application of Methodology at a Small Airport 138-140
V Conclusions and Recommendations for Further Research 141-142
19 Conclusions 143-143
Bibliography and References 144-148
Appendix A: Glossary of Key Terms and Abbreviations 149-151
Appendix B: Summary of Relevant Literature Reviewed 152-152
Appendix C: Incorporating Scenario Forecasting into Monte Carlo Simulations 153-158

Log In

Former MyNAP users: You'll need to reset your password on your first login to MyAcademies. Click "Forgot password" below to receive a reset link via email. Having trouble? Visit our FAQ page to contact support.

Members of the National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, or National Academy of Medicine should log in through their respective Academy portals.

Email (required)
Password (required)

Don't have an account?

Register

Email (required)
New password (required)
Retype password (required) Password must be at least 8 characters
I accept the terms of use
terms of use

Thank You

Thank you for creating a MyAcademies account!

Enjoy free access to thousands of National Academies' publications, a 10% discount off every purchase, and build your personal library.

Forgot Password

Enter the email address for your MyAcademies (formerly MyNAP) account to receive password reset instructions.

Email (required)

Reset Requested

We sent password reset instructions to your email . Follow the link in that email to create a new password. Didn't receive it? Check your spam folder or contact us for assistance.

Reset Password

New password (required)
Retype password (required) Password must be at least 8 characters

Reset Password

Your password has been reset.

Verify email

Verify Your Email Address

We sent a verification link to your email. Please check your inbox (and spam folder) and follow the link to verify your email address. If you did not receive the email, you can request a new verification link below

Incorporating Shock Events into Aviation Demand Forecasting and Airport Planning (2024)

Chapter: III The Systematic Methodology Approach

PART III

The Systematic Methodology Approach