communities are brought into and retained in the STEM workforce.¹ It is also important to recognize that the full impact of systemic improvements takes decades to develop and emerge. The students who will graduate from college with STEM degrees in 2040 are entering primary school today and will largely experience science and mathematics education during their early formative years as it exists today (Jones, 2004; NASEM, 2005, 2007a). As stated by the National Science Board, “Dramatically and quickly improving the STEM education trajectories for primary and secondary school students is essential to sustainably addressing our STEM talent crisis in the long-term” (NSB, 2024c).

International STEM talent has played an increasingly critical role in meeting U.S. workforce needs over the past three decades, especially at higher degree levels (NSB, 2020). With this being said, there are variations in the STEM labor market depending on the specific field and sector (Xue and Larson, 2015). For example, the percentage of foreign-born workers in the segment of the STEM workforce holding doctoral degrees has risen from 27 percent in 1993 to 43 percent today and approaches 60 percent in critical fields such as computer science, mathematics, and engineering (NSB, 2024c). The growth of the foreign-born share of the STEM workforce has also been dramatic, with the fractions of foreign-born holders of both bachelor’s and master’s degrees more than doubling since 1993. Overall, 26 percent of foreign-born workers in the United States were in STEM occupations in 2021, a greater share than the 24 percent of domestic-born workers in the United States in STEM occupations (Taylor and Arbeit, 2024). Foreign-born science and engineering workers provide significant contributions to the U.S. economy and its competitiveness (NSB, 2024c; Yoon, 2024).

Indeed, students and scholars from abroad² make an outsized contribution to advances in U.S. science, innovation, and invention, helping to keep the nation at the forefront of technological development (DOS and ED,

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¹ The committee notes the emergence of the concept of the “missing millions” in STEM and a scholarly literature base using the terms “leaky pipeline,” “braided river,” and “hostile obstacle course.”

² The committee also notes the importance and contributions of immigrant-origin students, a growing demographic in higher education as well as the domestic workforce (Batalova et al., 2024; Suárez-Orozco, 2023). First- and second-generation immigrant students accounted for 6.1 million, or over 30 percent, of U.S. college students in 2021, and over 80 percent of these students are people of color (Batalova and Feldblum, 2023; Batalova and Fix, 2023; Higher Ed Immigration Portal, 2024).

2021; Stephan and Levin, 2001; The Economist, 2024b). For example, as of 2022, 319 of 582 (55 percent) of U.S. startup companies valued at $1 billion or more have at least one immigrant founder. In addition, at least 51 of the 582 startups have founders who were born in the United States to immigrant parents, and almost 80 percent of America’s privately held, billion-dollar companies have an immigrant founder or an immigrant in a key leadership role (Anderson, 2022). Over the past two decades, immigrants have won 40 percent of U.S. Nobel Prizes (Anderson, 2023b; Boundless, 2023; Kerr, 2018). Appendix F provides a profile of one of these individuals, Katalin Karikó, as well as a profile of Fields Medal recipient Terence Tao.³ A recent estimate finds that by collaborating with their U.S. colleagues, immigrants are indirectly responsible for 36 percent of U.S. innovation, despite making up only 16 percent of inventors (Bernstein et al., 2022). Another recent paper shows that immigrants disproportionately contribute to job creation as entrepreneurs starting high-growth companies (Azoulay et al., 2022).

The continued incorporation of such individuals into the U.S. scientific enterprise is essential to research excellence and productivity, innovation-based economic growth, and national security (DOS and ED, 2021). However, the historical ability of the United States—and its competitive advantage—to attract the best and brightest foreign students and scholars in STEM fields is in jeopardy, as global competition for talent has led to stagnating international enrollment in U.S. colleges and universities and a declining share of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s internationally mobile student population (JASON, 2019; Kania and Gorman, 2020; OECD, 2023e).⁴ Furthermore, the immigration status of international graduates has grown more tenuous as the share of international graduates on temporary visas (e.g., F-1, J-1, and H-1B visas and extensions of these for Optional Practical Training [OPT]) has grown, while the share obtaining permanent residency or citizenship has fallen. These trends underscore the need for more stable and better pathways for international talent.

Every graduate of the U.S. educational system, regardless of citizenship or visa status, is the beneficiary of both public and private investment in this system. It is imperative for the United States to increase its return

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³ The Fields Medal is often described as the Nobel Prize for mathematics. See https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal.

⁴ The committee notes that the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted international enrollments and introduced uncertainty in longer-term higher education trends. This is discussed in greater detail in Chapter 4.

on this investment. This can occur by increasing the successful completion of studies in STEM fields by all segments of the U.S. population, including women and individuals from underrepresented communities, and by increasing the retention of international recipients of STEM degrees from U.S. universities, especially at the Ph.D. level. The investments made in these students far outstrips the direct support to them by the federal government. The vast majority of international Ph.D. students studying at American universities in STEM fields are funded by research grants and contracts to their institutions from federal, state, industrial, and philanthropic sources, in addition to internal funds. Thus, not only is there a large domestic investment in the education of international STEM Ph.D. students but also given the large fraction of the total graduate student population represented by international students, U.S. institutions of higher education could not sustain current levels of funded research, including research conducted on behalf of the federal government, without their presence.

The goal of the United States should be to maintain and even enhance the nation’s competitive position in attracting and retaining international STEM talent (Kania and Gorman, 2020). Success will depend on our nation’s ability to compete on multiple fronts, as other nations present increasingly attractive opportunities. The United States must offer both educational and professional opportunities—to be part of world-leading universities, companies, national laboratories, and entrepreneurial ventures, as well as quality-of-life opportunities for individuals and their families. The policies and investments required to compete as a magnet for global talent go beyond the establishment of talent programs, as other nations have increasingly recognized.⁵ As illustrated elsewhere in this report, some incentive programs implemented by other nations aim to exploit unforced errors by the United States rather than to prevail in head-to-head competition for talent. A prime example is the pillar of Canada’s Tech Talent Strategy focusing on “creating a streamlined work permit for H-1B specialty occupation visa holders in the U.S. to apply to come to Canada,”⁶ which

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⁵ Kerr argues that “America needs to restore the promise of the American dream for it to remain the magnet for global talent. The U.S. economy depends upon it. But it is not just about restoring the American dream to those abroad, as many American citizens have lost their own dreams, too” (Kerr, 2018).

⁶ The H-1B visa is a nonimmigrant work visa that allows U.S. employers to hire foreign workers with specialized skills to work in the United States for a specific period of time. Typically, the roles require a bachelor’s degree or equivalent. Occupations that qualify for the H-1B visa are typically in fields such as technology, finance, engineering, and architecture.

provides greater security with respect to immigration status than the U.S. system is able to achieve (Government of Canada, 2023b).

Student flows from China to the United States also have fallen dramatically, likely attributable to both the COVID-19 pandemic and to negative perceptions of the U.S. Department of Justice’s China Initiative (Chen, 2023; Gilbert, 2023; Guo et al., 2021; Ma, 2023; Nuwer, 2023; Tan, 2021). This initiative produced a measurable shift in collaborations between Chinese scholars and institutions from partners in the United States to partners in Europe. The attractiveness of the United States also has suffered from the unpredictability introduced by the Department of Homeland Security at ports of entry for Chinese students and scholars. There are recent examples where such an individual has sought to enter the United States with a valid visa, only to find out that their visa has been canceled and to be sent home, often with a 5-year ban to reentry (Hawkins, 2024; Ip, 2024; Kaufman, 2024; Kuo and Cadell, 2024; Mervis, 2024a; Prasso, 2024; Yang, 2024; Zhang, 2024; Zhang and Wang, 2024). Cutting off large-scale flows of STEM talent and information from any major source, whether a potential adversary or not, would represent an enormous self-inflicted wound to U.S. leadership in STEM fields.⁷ Nevertheless, continued vigilance to ensure that the open culture of research is not exploited by malign actors cannot be neglected (Puglisi, 2021; U.S. Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, 2019b).

REPORT PURPOSE, CHARGE, AND APPROACH

The U.S. Department of Defense (DOD), responding to a directive from Congress, tasked the Committee on International Talent Programs in the Changing Global Environment of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (the National Academies) to develop a consensus study report (see Statement of Task in Box 1-1). To carry out this charge, the National Academies formed an ad hoc committee of leaders and scholars that included higher education administrators and researchers, science and technology policy experts, international programs and China experts, and national security experts. Members of the committee unanimously recognize the importance of international collaborations and partnerships and the openness and global character of the scientific and research enterprise

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⁷ Kania and Gorman write that “[c]utting off the science and technology talent flow from China to the United States would hand China’s party-state the gift of a forfeit in this part of that contest” (Kania and Gorman, 2020).

the study.⁸ Several documents and data sources regarding Chinese talent programs have been removed from the internet and are no longer accessible (Brown, 2019; Mallapaty, 2018; Normile, 2022; O’Malley, 2019; U.S. Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, 2019b; U.S. Select Committee on Intelligence, 2022; Weinstein, 2020).

The National Academies and DOD agreed to conduct this study at the unclassified level to ensure maximum transparency and accessibility and to engender trust between institutions of higher education and the agency. However, this study was conducted in a manner that allowed the committee to access restricted but unclassified information and to hear from speakers in closed session upon receipt of a Federal Advisory Committee Act (P.L. 92-463, October 6, 1972) determination letter containing a Freedom of Information Act (5 U.S. Code § 552, July 4, 1966) exemption. This permitted the committee to engage with the Federal Bureau of Investigation during a closed but unclassified information gathering session.

REPORT STRUCTURE

The remainder of this report addresses the committee’s activities, findings, and recommendations. Chapter 2 provides additional background information before a discussion of the national security and defense implications of scientific research and foreign talent in Chapter 3. Chapter 4 provides an overview of how the United States attracts and retains talent. This is followed by a discussion of how other countries attract and retain talent in Chapter 5, and a discussion of the development of talent programs by current countries of concern, including China,⁹ in Chapter 6. Chapter 7 presents the committee’s findings, and Chapter 8 presents the committee’s recommendations.

The committee hopes government decision-makers and policymakers seriously consider the findings and recommendations in this report, as they

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⁸ The committee is grateful for the wealth of translated materials made publicly available by Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology. See https://cset.georgetown.edu/publications/?fwp_content_type=translation#publications.

⁹ The committee wants to state upfront that when referring to China, this report is referring to the People’s Republic of China (PRC), the State, which is controlled by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), and not to its people, many of whom are invaluable contributors to the global scientific enterprise (Maizland and Albert, 2022; NASEM, 2023b). The CCP has more than 98 million members as of 2022, while China’s total population is more than 1.4 billion people (World Bank, 2023; Xinhua News Agency, 2003).

are integral to sustaining the flow of talent, information, and ideas that is so vital to the United States’ continued leadership in science, technology, and innovation and economic and national security more broadly.

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