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Challenges to Meeting U.S. Mineral Resource Needs

U.S. mineral resource needs, as well as global mineral resource needs, are increasing and are forecast to continue increasing as a result of population growth and improved living standards. Moreover, needs for certain minerals will increase more than for others as products and processes that use these minerals evolve, especially materials for energy and digital technologies. These projected mineral needs outpace the current and anticipated production amounts for many mineral resources (e.g., IEA, 2024). Geopolitical risks associated with potential international trade disruptions can hinder overall mineral supply and increase the gap between demand and production (Baskaran and Wood, 2024). Together, these factors present significant obstacles and threats to the United States’ ability to meet its mineral resource demands and ensure a resilient mineral resources sector.

The urgent challenge overall is to meet growing mineral resource needs while ensuring affordability and supply chain security and resilience, as well as maintaining and enhancing environmental and social sustainability.

From a geographic perspective, meeting growing U.S. needs will rely on increased production from both domestic and foreign sources. To some degree, growth in mineral needs and requirements for additional mineral resource production can be tempered with measures that increase the efficiency with which society uses materials (through increased manufacturing efficiency, material reuse, and recycling), as well as with new materials and technologies that use less material; but increased production from domestic and foreign sources will still be needed.

Government, the minerals industry, and other private-sector actors will play key roles in addressing this challenge. In particular, the federal government has several policy tools at its disposal: commercial policies such as tax incentives, loans and loan guarantees, and others; regulatory policies governing land use and the environment; national defense policies and the defense industrial base; science and technology policy

toward basic and applied research, as well as technology development; and others. This study does not evaluate the federal government’s overall role in addressing the challenge of meeting U.S. mineral resource needs. Rather, this study focuses on the role that the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Mineral Resources Program (MRP)—and its research, data, and information—can and should play in meeting these needs.

In this light, the committee identified seven priority challenges—primarily in the areas of science, technology, and related economic analysis—and actions that could help meet future needs. The USGS is the principal government agency with the scientific and technical capability to help meet these specific challenges; MRP, in turn, can play a central role in addressing many of these challenges. Thus, these seven challenges provide the context for the evaluation of MRP and its activities in the rest of the report.

CHALLENGE 1: ANTICIPATING FUTURE DEMAND FOR MINERALS, RECOGNIZING THAT MATERIAL NEEDS CHANGE AS TECHNOLOGIES EVOLVE

Both U.S. and global mineral needs will increase in the future. Anticipating the nature, magnitude, and timing of these increases in demand is key to ensuring that mineral supply is in place to meet these growing needs.

The demand for any mineral reflects the combined effects of the level of economic activity (often measured as gross domestic product), the structure of economic activity (types of goods and services produced), and the nature of material technology (what materials are used or needed in current product demand). Anticipating how all three determinants of mineral demand will change is difficult—especially in a world of macroeconomic uncertainty, heightened geopolitical risks, and rapid technological change. For example, lithium is the basis for state-of-the-art batteries for energy storage in electric vehicles and for wind and solar electricity storage, among other uses. Anticipating how lithium demand will change requires an understanding of how economic activity and structure will evolve—for example, the greater the rate at which electric vehicles replace vehicles with conventional internal combustion engines, the greater the demand for lithium. Furthermore, batteries with alternate chemistries, such as sodium-ion batteries, could significantly reduce lithium demand or at least the growth in lithium demand. Meeting this challenge requires scenario analysis that anticipates and envisions ranges of plausible future developments in the underlying determinants of mineral demand. As the leader in mineral information, MRP has a specific role to play in meeting this challenge (see Chapter 4, Mineral Information and Supply Chain Analysis; Recommendations 1 and 2).

CHALLENGE 2: ENHANCING RESILIENCE AND SECURITY OF SUPPLY FOR MINERAL-DERIVED MATERIALS

In terms of geology, mineral resources are unevenly distributed around the globe. The United States has historically produced and currently produces significant amounts of some mineral resources—for example, boron, gold, copper, and molybdenum—but

is highly dependent on imports for many others, such as graphite, manganese, and rare earth elements (USGS, 2025). Some minerals that have been produced domestically in the past are obtained more cheaply through import at present. New uses for minerals and substitutions of minerals in manufacturing, new technologies for processing minerals, and recovery of minerals from unconventional sources all influence supply and demand and the economics of particular mineral resources.

In an era of evolving and increasing demand (Challenge 1), many factors affect supply resilience and security including difficulties in quickly expanding domestic supply (Challenges 3–7) and diversifying reliable international partners. MRP has the key federal responsibility for understanding supply resilience and security and providing data to facilitate the discovery of new mineral resources. MRP’s efforts in mapping and characterization as well as its research on potential resource recovery from unconventional sources like mine waste will be paramount in increasing domestic supply (see Chapter 4, Mineral Resource Research and Assessments, Earth Mapping Resources Initiative, and Mine Waste Program and Unconventional Resources). In addition, securing mineral supply also involves ensuring that mineral processing is available either domestically or from reliable international partners. For example, even if the United States increased domestic mine production of rare earth elements, it still would be almost entirely dependent on China for processing of this raw material into usable industrial material, without expansion of non-Chinese processing. Investment in domestic mineral processing capabilities could significantly enhance mineral supply resilience and security. As outlined elsewhere in this report, and unlike peer countries such as Australia and Canada, the United States lacks a coherent national strategy with respect to minerals—in particular, critical minerals. Exploration and discovery necessarily link to the development of new domestic capabilities for extraction, processing and beneficiation, and downstream mineral supply, all of which form part of a national strategy for developing mineral resources to benefit the country.

CHALLENGE 3: CHARACTERIZING THE NATION’S MINERAL RESOURCES, INCLUDING UNCONVENTIONAL AND SECONDARY RESOURCES

A fundamental aspect of meeting the U.S. mineral resource needs is a comprehensive understanding of the location and viability of potential resources. A mineral systems approach (e.g., Hofstra and Kreiner, 2020) provides guidance on the geologic and tectonic settings that are likely to host various types of mineral deposits. This approach, in turn, has helped geoscientists to identify previously unexplored areas with the potential to contain undiscovered resources, encouraging expansion of mineral exploration activities into these new areas, but in itself does not constitute a national atlas of potential resources. Additionally, for known resources, factors influencing their development and extraction may be uncertain. Furthermore, nontraditional resources such as mine waste, tailings, produced waters, coal ash, recycling, and e-waste have only just begun to be explored. For example, nontraditional sources could become important for lithium due to both new characterization (e.g., Knierim et al., 2024) and the changing economics

of extractability. Moreover, artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) are being applied to identify and locate mineral resources in areas that previously had been deemed unlikely to host economic deposits using conventional approaches (e.g., De Chant, 2025a,b).

A lack of urgency in assessing the nation’s mineral resources has endured for the past 40–50 years, following completion of the National Uranium Resource Evaluation program and the Alaska Mineral Resource Assessment Program (AMRAP), and since the Bureau of Mines was closed. Recently, supply constraints and geopolitical tensions have focused the nation’s attention on domestic mineral availability. MRP is the natural choice of organization to collect standardized national datasets and perform the assessments and research necessary to determine the nation’s mineral endowment in both conventional and unconventional sources (see Chapter 4, Mineral Resource Research and Assessments; Recommendation 3).

CHALLENGE 4: LEVERAGING LARGE DATASETS, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND MACHINE LEARNING, AND DATA SCIENCE

Over the next decade, new data collection efforts and digitization of data collected over the past 100 years will supply the mineral resource sector with abundant geochemical, geophysical, geochronologic, and geospatial data. While these data present new opportunities, they also present large challenges to those who hope to collect, analyze, and share the data. Storage, organization, analysis, and distribution of large datasets all pose challenges with today’s technology, pushing the limits of our current data practices and capacities and requiring new ways of storing, presenting, and providing data.

The principal challenge in analyzing enormous datasets of different types is understanding and building methods that can parse through each data type in an effective and efficient way. Currently, application of these methods in the mineral exploration space is considered to be in its infancy, with only recent shifts toward greater use of data analytics to discover, explore, understand, and extract minerals critical to meeting U.S. resource needs. To collect, store, analyze, and share data in a timely manner that meets stakeholder timelines and moves the United States toward meeting its mineral resource needs, “big data” methods of collection, storage, and analysis will be important complements to traditional methods in all aspects of the mineral research and exploration sectors.

The management and efficient use of extremely large datasets and data processing tools presents opportunities in mineral resources exploration. Taking advantage of these opportunities depends on a workforce that is well trained in this specific area, which presents a challenge in itself (Challenge 7). MRP is a crucial player in this challenge both by providing large archival datasets and new Earth MRI data collection, as well as developing and analyzing these datasets that can guide exploration for decades to come.

CHALLENGE 5: BUILDING DYNAMISM AND INNOVATION INTO THE U.S. MINERALS SECTOR AND DEPLOYING TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATIONS AT SCALE

An increasing level of risk in the U.S. minerals sector stems from a lack of urgency, innovation, and long-term investment, resulting in conventional approaches to mineral exploration and resource development. The U.S. minerals sector has traditionally underinvested in significant innovation compared to other sectors (Deloitte, 2017) and lags behind Australia and Canada—and now China and Europe as well—in innovation hubs, new technology development, data implementation, funding for research, and embracing new innovations. While the United States has let its domestic beneficiation and smelting capabilities lapse, it now has an opportunity to rebuild them with modern technologies. Yet for effective rebuilding, the sector requires support and investment—not only from the government but also from the financial sector. Investors who might otherwise be averse to carbon-intensive industries such as the minerals sector are interested in investing in companies that develop and deploy new technologies and approaches to mineral exploration, resource development, and mineral processing. Of particular interest are practices that align with environmental and social responsibility, for example in ways outlined in the mining principles set forth by the International Council on Mining and Metals (ICMM, 2024).

CHALLENGE 6: TRANSFORMING THE MINERALS SECTOR TO REDUCE ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL DISRUPTIONS

The minerals sector mines and processes minerals to maintain and improve our standard of living and security. Central to this goal is mineral mining and processing in ways that protect the environment so that communities in mining areas and future generations are not adversely affected. Historically, the mining industry has not only disturbed significant amounts of land and water systems including rivers and aquifers but also generated significant amounts of waste, affecting communities and leaving behind a legacy of environmental degradation. These actions have damaged the sector’s reputation and have resulted in general public distrust. Although the social and environmental performance of new mine developments has improved, public resistance to mining projects is still significant in many jurisdictions across the world including in the United States. For society to understand that the benefits of mining can outweigh its negative impacts, a genuine integration of economics, community, environment, and governance is needed.

Drawing the public into the larger conversation about mineral resources will help facilitate more support for investment in U.S. minerals sector research and development, as evidenced by similar programs in Australia and Great Britain. Australia conducts public polls every few years in part to assess ways to educate the public and address larger concerns, with the most recent poll showing an increase in the public’s trust and acceptance of mining (Moffat et al., 2024). The perception of the minerals sector among the public shifts once the sector is viewed as a participating driver for sustainable development rather than an isolated “mining industry.”

A continued transformation beyond what has already occurred is needed to reduce the negative environmental and social impacts of mining and mineral processing. New technologies are needed across the mining sector in exploration, deposit characterization, mining methods, and metallurgy (including mineral processing and refining) to reduce the negative environmental impacts from mining (Challenge 5). Developing new technologies to increase mineral production from recycling and unconventional sources including mine waste and tailings could increase mineral supply while reducing negative environmental impacts. The research done in the MRP mine waste program will be important to this development (see Chapter 4, Mine Waste Program and Unconventional Resources). Furthermore, through an increased focus on public communications and outreach as well as more formalized channels of communication for other government entities, academia, and private industry, MRP can be a central player in engaging the public in discussions about the societal need for mining.

CHALLENGE 7: EDUCATING AND TRAINING THE EVOLVING WORKFORCE NEEDED TO ADDRESS MINERAL CHALLENGES

The mining workforce requires training and education in traditional fields such as economic geology and mining engineering, as well as in related fields such as geological engineering, metallurgy, environmental science, hydrology, geochemistry, geophysics, GIS, data science, and mineral economics. However, the number of trained workers entering the mining workforce in the United States has been declining over time: from 2015 to 2023, the student enrollment in university mining engineering programs decreased by 60% (NASEM, 2024). Similar struggles are felt in other areas of geoscience education (e.g., Wilson, 2019; Mosher and Keane, 2021). In addition to traditional mining and geology programs, the future mineral resources sector will need expertise in the big data sector, requiring skill sets in automation, ML, AI, robotics, data analytics, and data science as well as significant environmental and communication training related to permitting, reclamation, land tenure, and mine closure. The mineral resources education sector will need to produce an interdisciplinary and highly skilled workforce that will align responsively both with technological advancements in industry and social and environmental standards. With fewer qualified graduates, a lower number of available accredited programs, and a significant portion of the current workforce soon to retire, the United States faces increasing challenges in meeting its future mineral supply and remaining competitive in the global mineral resources industry (SME, 2022; NASEM, 2024).

One component of building the right workforce involves the USGS and other government entities encouraging and enabling the training of students in applied geoscience and in fields within and beyond the minerals sector, bringing new perspectives to mineral resources data science. MRP’s engagements with academia (Chapter 7) is one mechanism to help meet this challenge. New training can be complemented by recruiting existing skilled workers in mineral-adjacent fields such as physics, chemistry, engineering, economics, and data science. Training and recruitment efforts can be aided by a change in the public perception of the mineral resource industry (Chal-

lenge 6), especially at the student and early career level, by transparently addressing the long-standing concerns of the American public and working to find responsible, technology-driven solutions.

ADDRESSING THESE CHALLENGES

Addressing the nation’s mineral resource challenges, especially those related to critical minerals, as noted earlier, will require efforts across government, private industry, and academia. This is not without precedent. In 1961, U.S. commitment to landing a man on the moon within a decade mobilized national resources, reshaped federal priorities, and accelerated scientific and technological progress. A similar level of commitment to meeting U.S. mineral resource needs could yield transformative results in a short time frame.

An urgent need exists to act now. The committee believes that the current pace of activity in addressing the challenges identified above is insufficient to meet the needs of the nation over the next decade and beyond. It takes time to evaluate mineral potential, to bring new mineral sources into production, to develop new techniques for mineral exploration, and to develop new technologies for mining and mineral processing. MRP plays a distinct and essential role in providing unbiased science, data, and assessments needed to inform sound decisions. Later chapters in this report outline specific opportunities (see Chapters 4–7) and recommendations (see Chapter 8) for how MRP can help lead this effort.