Review of the Long-Term Operations of the Central Valley Project and the State Water Project (2026)
Chapter: Front Matter
Review of the Long-Term Operations of the Central Valley Project and the State Water Project
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Committee to Review the Long-Term Operations of the Central Valley Project and the State Water Project
Water Science and Technology Board
Ocean Studies Board
Division on Earth and Life Studies
Consensus Study Report
NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001
This activity was supported by a contract between the National Academy of Sciences and U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation (AWD-001904). Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project.
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-99279-4
Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/29130
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Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2026. Review of the Long-Term Operations of the Central Valley Project and the State Water Project. Washington, DC: National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/29130.
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COMMITTEE TO REVIEW THE LONG-TERM OPERATIONS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY PROJECT AND THE STATE WATER PROJECT
PETER GOODWIN (Chair), University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science (emeritus)
JERAD D. BALES, Consortium of Universities for the Advancement of Hydrologic Science, Inc. (retired)
STEPHEN B. BRANDT, Oregon State University (emeritus)
ERIN N. BRAY, San Francisco State University
PHAEDRA E. BUDY, U.S. Geological Survey, Utah Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Utah State University
HARINDRA J. FERNANDO, University of Notre Dame
RENE E. HENERY, Trout Unlimited
JAY R. LUND, University of California, Davis (emeritus)
JOSUÉ MEDELLÍN-AZUARA, University of California, Merced
MICHELLE E. MIRO, RAND Corporation
MOHAMMED OMBADI, University of Michigan
DAVID R. OWEN, University of California Law, San Francisco
DENISE J. REED, University of New Orleans
ALBERT RUHI, University of California, Berkeley
STEVEN SADRO, University of California, Davis
DAVID B. SENN, San Francisco Estuary Institute
JERY R. STEDINGER, Cornell University (emeritus)
PATRICK J. SULLIVAN, Cornell University (emeritus)
Study Staff
LAURA EHLERS, Study Director, Water Science and Technology Board (WSTB)
CONSTANCE KARRAS, Senior Program Officer, Ocean Studies Board
SABINA VADNAIS, Associate Program Officer, Board on Life Sciences
MAYA FREY, Senior Program Assistant, WSTB
Sponsor
U.S. BUREAU OF RECLAMATION
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Reviewers
This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process.
We thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
EMILY S. BERNHARDT, Duke University
KARRIGAN S. BÖRK, University of California, Davis, School of Law
JOHN R. DURAND, University of California, Davis
GREGORY GARTRELL, Public Policy Institute of California
EDWARD D. HOUDE, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science
STEVEN LINDLEY, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service (retired)
FELICIA MARCUS, Stanford University
CYNTHIA MEYER, San Luis and Delta-Mendota Water Authority
BART NIJSSEN, University of Washington
PAUL A. ULLRICH, University of California, Davis
SCOTT A. WELLS, Portland State University
ISA WOO, U.S. Geological Survey
Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of this report nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this report was overseen by MICHAEL C. KAVANAUGH (NAE), Geosyntec Consultants, and DAVID A. DZOMBAK (NAE), Carnegie Mellon University. They were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies.
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Contents
Size and Scope of the Delta Science Enterprise
Request for the Study and Statement of Task
2 SHASTA COLDWATER POOL MANAGEMENT
Description of the Shasta Division and the Coldwater Pool Management Action
Conclusions and Recommendations
3 OLD AND MIDDLE RIVER FLOW MANAGEMENT
Description of the Delta Smelt Summer-Fall Habitat Action
Conclusions and Recommendations
The Science Enterprise and the Bay-Delta Watershed
Water Management in a Changing Climate
Conclusions and Recommendations
A NORTHERN CALIFORNIA CLIMATE, HYDROLOGY, AND GEOLOGY
B BACKGROUND INFORMATION RELEVANT TO THE CENTRAL VALLEY PROJECT AND THE STATE WATER PROJECT
C LAWS GOVERNING PROJECT OPERATIONS
D DESCRIPTIONS OF MONITORING AND MODELING RELEVANT TO THE PROJECTS
Boxes, Figures, and Tables
BOXES
S-1 National Academies Committee’s Statement of Task
1-1 Declines in Fish Abundance in the Bay-Delta
1-2 ESA for Species Recovery Versus Prevention of Extinction
1-3 National Academies Committee’s Statement of Task
2-1 The Temperature Control Device at Shasta Reservoir
2-2 Hydropower Operations and Coldwater Pool Management
2-3 Seiching in Shasta Reservoir
2-4 Key Stressors for Sacramento River Winter-Run Chinook Salmon
3-1 Juvenile Production Estimate for Sacramento River Winter-Run Chinook Salmon
3-2 Survivability of Salvaged Fish
3-3 Indirect Effects of Pumping on Fish in the Delta
3-4 USBR Zone of Influence Analysis: Description and Recommendations for Further Study
4-1 Delta Smelt Life History and Stages
4-2 Recent Consideration of the Summer-Fall Habitat Action
5-1 Selected Examples of the Outcomes of Collaborative Science in California
5-2 California Department of Water Resources Climate Modeling for SWP Operations
5-3 USBR Approach to Long-Term Operations Climate Change Modeling
B-1 A Comparison of Water Flows Through the Delta for Four Recent Water Years
FIGURES
1-2A Abundance indices for Delta smelt
1-2B Abundance indices for longfin smelt
1-2C Winter-run Chinook salmon adult annual escapement in the Central Valley, 1970–2021
1-3 Annual precipitation variability in California, 1895–2020
2-1 Geography of the Shasta Division of the CVP
2-5 Stage–storage curves for Shasta Reservoir used in the WTMP
2-6 Vertical temperature profile monitoring setup used from 2015 to 2016
2-7 The seasonal variation in the thermal structure of Shasta Reservoir from 2019 through 2023
2-9 Air temperature and local wind speed at Shasta Dam in April 2016
2-10 Water temperature profile at Shasta Dam on August 28 and September 20, 2015
2-11 Water temperature at selected elevations in Shasta Reservoir, September 1–5, 2015
3-1 Features and monitoring locations relevant to OMR
3-4 Natural-origin winter-run Chinook salmon JPE for brood years (BY) 2005 through 2023
3-6 Shift in annual Delta exports, current to mid-century conditions
4-1 San Francisco Bay Estuary highlighting Suisun Bay and the Delta
A-1 Average annual precipitation in California, 1961–1990
A-2 Average monthly rainfall at five stations in California
A-4 Projected changes in mean annual precipitation as a function of different global warming levels
A-6 Changes in precipitation interannual variability in the conterminous United States, 1941–2020
A-7 Statewide Palmer Drought Severity Index for California, 1895–2020
A-8 Projected changes in reference evapotranspiration from downscaled CMIP5 GCMs
A-12 Upper Sacramento River basin, showing major impoundments
A-14 Reconstruction of historical south Delta channels and current flow network
A-15 Map of the Delta showing the major water features
A-16 Schematic showing the approximate scale of primary Delta inflows and outflows
A-17 Rain as a percentage of total annual precipitation in California, 1949–2020
A-18 Annual runoff for the State of California
A-19 Trends in normalized Delta outflow over time, 1930–2021
A-21 Instantaneous and average flows over a tidal cycle at Freeport on the Sacramento River
A-25 Tidal flows and prisms for the Suisun Bay area
A-27 Observed sea level rise trends from satellite and tide gauge data during the period 1993–2020
A-29 Reconstructed historical San Francisco Bay-Delta land use and current land use
A-30 Timeline of key historical and ecological changes in California and the Delta
A-31 Estimated grazing rates for Potamocorbula amurensis and Corbicula fluminea in May 2019
B-1 California population, 1850–2100, and some water resources milestones
B-2 Existing federal and state storage and conveyance systems in California
B-3 Common paths for water flowing into and through the Delta
B-5 An expanded view of the 2020 dry year Delta outflows and X2
D-1 A schematic of model linkages identified in long-term operations
D-2 A schematic of CalSim3-based water resources modeling for long-term operations
D-4 Winter-run life-cycle model
E-1 Life history of the Delta smelt and where life stages reside in the Delta
E-3 Response of the planktonic food web in Suisun Bay to an introduced clam, Corbula amurensis
E-4 Time series of Delta smelt data from the Fall Midwater Trawl and Spring Kodiak Trawl
E-5 Distribution of longfin smelt
E-6 Life cycle of longfin smelt
E-7 Time series of longfin smelt data from the Fall Midwater Trawl and Bay Study Midwater Trawl
E-9 Winter-run Chinook salmon adult annual escapement in the Central Valley, 1970–2021
E-11 Simplified geographic life stage domains for steelhead
E-13 Life cycle of green sturgeon
E-14 (A) Green sturgeon and (B) white sturgeon life-cycle models
TABLES
1-1 CVP and SWP Operations Teams
2-1 Requirements for Various Elements of Shasta Coldwater Pool Management, by Bin
2-4 Assessment of Key Stressors for CV Winter-Run Chinook Salmon Juvenile and Adult Life Stages
3-1 Triggers in OMR Flow Management Stemming from the Biological Opinions
3-2 Models Relevant to OMR Flow Management
3-3 Baseline OMR Flows Under Current and Future Climate
4-1 Overview of Monitoring and Other Data Used for Assessing Responses to the SFHA
4-2 Summary of Models/Tools Used in SFHA in Water Year 2022
5-1 Climatic Impact Drivers and Their Influence on the Long-Term Operation of the Three CVP Actions
B-1 Timeline of Events Relevant to the Central Valley Project and State Water Project
B-2 Capacity of Some of the Major Storage Reservoirs Within the CVP and SWP
B-4 Maximum SWP Contractual Table A Amounts and 2013–2024 Average Allocation
D-2 Select Quantitative Biological Models Used in the Long-Term Operations of the CVP and SWP
E-1 Generalized Life-History Timing of Central Valley Chinook Salmon
E-2 Temperature Requirements of Winter-Run Chinook Salmon by Life Stage
E-3 Summary of Annual Chinook Salmon Monitoring Efforts on the Sacramento River and Tributaries
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Preface
Water management in California includes two of the largest multipurpose water management projects in the world—the federal Central Valley Project (CVP), operated by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR), and the State Water Project (SWP), operated by the California Department of Water Resources (CDWR). The water harnessed by these projects stems from the Sacramento River and San Joaquin River watersheds. Much of that water flows through the area—known as the Delta or, in combination with the adjacent bays, as the Bay-Delta—created at those rivers’ confluence and then exits to San Francisco Bay and the Pacific Ocean. But a substantial amount also is diverted by the CVP and SWP. At least two-thirds of California’s population and more than 4 million acres of California farmland rely in whole or in part on water delivered by these projects, which transfer billions of gallons per day on average from Northern California to drier Central and Southern California.
These water deliveries are complicated by several factors. More than 750 fish and wildlife species (including dozens that are now listed under state and/or federal law as threatened or endangered) and commercial fishery species rely on a functioning Bay-Delta ecosystem to thrive. The area also is an internationally significant ecosystem because of its importance for migratory bird species. The Delta’s tributary rivers provide important ecological and recreational value as well as water for diversion to cities and farms. Yet the area is also a hotspot for invasive species, many of which have dramatically altered the system.
The Delta’s economic and ecological significance has led to a complex management regime. California water management involves more than 230 federal, state, and local agencies and water contractors, as well as dozens of California tribes whose culture is intricately tied to the land, fish, and other wildlife resources that have evolved in this unique system.
The Delta, its watershed, and California as a whole have undergone almost two centuries of land use change and population growth, now compounded by more recent threats associated with a warmer and increasingly variable atmosphere, accelerating sea level rise, emerging contaminants, invasive species, dramatic declines in multiple native species, and more frequent harmful algal blooms. The increasing variability and intensity of precipitation, droughts, and wildfires will challenge California’s management of its water supplies into the foreseeable future.
In order to inform and guide the management of this complex and dynamic ecosystem, a highly skilled science and engineering community has evolved representing federal and state agencies, tribes, water delivery and power companies, agricultural interests, academia, local government, and consultants. This highly skilled and productive community is underpinned by high quality data, diffuse yet innovative modeling, and fundamental scientific research that has led to application of these advances throughout California and beyond. The leadership role of
the U.S. Geological Survey in designing, implementing, and making available state-of-the-science monitoring in the Bay-Delta and watershed is the bedrock of this exemplary science and research endeavor.
Since the last National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine review of the Bay-Delta in 2012, there have been extensive advances in the science and technologies deployed to monitor, model, manage, and understand this complex system. This Committee’s charge focuses on the science used to inform three actions that USBR and CDWR carry out as they manage the CVP and SWP, respectively. These three actions are Shasta Coldwater Pool Management, Old and Middle River Flow Management, and the Summer-Fall Habitat Action. Because of this specific focus, the Committee did not review many elements of CVP and SWP water management, and readers should not interpret this report to be expressing opinions on those other actions. That is, this review is not intended to be an exhaustive and critical evaluation of the extensive published and gray literature on California water.
Perhaps most importantly, the Committee’s review overlapped with the Endangered Species Act reconsultation process leading to the 2024 biological opinions of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the National Marine Fisheries Service, the 2024 incidental take permit from the California Department of Fish and Wildlife, and USBR’s final Environmental Impact Statement for the Long-term Operation of the Projects. Despite this overlap, the Committee was not asked to review the reconsultation process. Indeed, the reconsultation activities prevented the Committee from interacting fully with all of the relevant state and federal agency scientists. The Committee did use reconsultation-related documents to inform its understanding of how USBR and other agencies define the relevant actions and as part of its literature review. However, this report is not a review of the biological opinions, the incidental take statement, or the environmental impact statement.
In addition, although the Committee studied the information provided by USBR and participants at the Committee’s public meetings, derived from the peer-reviewed scientific literature, and provided in the 2024 reconsultation documentation, this review is not exhaustive of all recent studies and programs. Other important activities were completed or nearing completion during the Committee’s tenure but fell outside of the scope of the Committee’s charge, including:
- the Healthy Rivers and Landscapes Initiative, previously referred to as Voluntary Agreements, used to satisfy water quality standards for the Bay-Delta and tributary waters;
- the State Water Resources Control Board update to the Bay-Delta Plan, which is due in late 2025; and
- the many current review activities of the Delta Science Program.
Some topics presented to the Committee during its public meetings were also beyond the scope of this review. Hence, although this report briefly mentions some ways in which the actions might affect hydropower generation, hydropower operations were not a focus of the review. Similarly, some presenters questioned USBR’s and CDWR’s use of water-year classifications to guide management. Although such questions might be explored in a future report, USBR requested that the Committee not investigate that topic in this review cycle. Related topics such as forecast-informed reservoir operations, while not addressed in this report, could be explored in future work. Finally, the Committee considered existing legal frameworks as given.
The Committee was established under the auspices of the Water Science and Technology Board of the National Academies. The Committee included 18 individuals whose joint expertise covered the diversity of disciplines relevant to the study. Over the course of 15 months and eight committee meetings, five of which included sessions open to the public, the Committee heard from local, state, and federal experts about project operations and the three actions. The Committee acknowledges and appreciates the many individuals within USBR, CDWR, the Delta Science Program, other state and federal agencies, tribes, and other institutions and organizations who have endeavored to keep the National Academies’ staff and Committee apprised of science developments and have provided thoughtful input. The Committee would especially like to acknowledge the following individuals for their support throughout this project: Dave Mooney, Josh Israel, and Lillian McCormick (USBR); Lenny Grimaldo and Britt Davis (CDWR); and Dylan Stern, Delta Science Program. The Committee also thanks the many individuals who spoke during open-mic sessions or submitted written comments during the course of the study.
Peter Goodwin, Chair
Committee to Review the Long-Term Operations of the Central Valley Project and the State Water Project
October 2025
Acronyms and Abbreviations
| 1-D | One-dimensional |
| 2-D | Two-dimensional |
| 3-D | Three-dimensional |
| ADCP | Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler |
| ANN | Artificial neural network |
| C-C | Clausius-Clapeyron |
| CCV | California Central Valley |
| CDFW | California Department of Fish and Wildlife |
| CDWR | California Department of Water Resources |
| CEQA | California Environmental Quality Act |
| CESA | California Endangered Species Act |
| cfs | Cubic feet per second |
| CID | Climate impact driver |
| CMIP | Coupled Model Intercomparison Project |
| COA | Coordinated Operating Agreement |
| CPUV | Catch per unit volume |
| CSAMP | Collaborative Science and Adaptive Management Program |
| CV | Central Valley |
| CVP | Central Valley Project |
| CVPIA | Central Valley Project Improvement Act |
| CWA | Clean Water Act |
| CWEMF | California Water and Environmental Modeling Forum |
| CWT | Coded-wire tag |
| DCC | Delta Cross Channel |
| DCD | Delta Channel Depletion |
| DCG | Delta Coordination Group |
| DIDSON | Dual-frequency identification sonar |
| DJFMP | Delta Juvenile Fish Monitoring Program |
| DPIIC | Delta Plan Interagency Implementation Committee |
| DSM | Decision Support Model or Delta Simulation Model |
| DSM2 | Delta Simulation Model II |
| DSM2-GTM | Delta Simulation Model 2-General Transport Model |
| DTS | Distributed temperature sensing |
| DU | Demand Unit |
| ecoPTM | Ecological Particle Tracking Model |
| EDSM | Enhanced Delta Smelt Monitoring |
| EIS | Environmental impact statement |
| EOS | End-of-September |
| ePTM | Enhanced Particle Tracking Model |
| ESA | Endangered Species Act |
| ESU | Evolutionarily Significant Unit |
| ET | Evapotranspiration |
| FMWT | Fall Midwater Trawl Index |
| FNU | Formazin Nephelometric Units |
| GCID | Glenn-Colusa Irrigation District |
| GCMs | Global climate models |
| HABs | Harmful Algal Blooms |
| HEC | Hydrologic Engineering Center |
| HSI | Habitat Suitability Index |
| IEP | Interagency Ecological Program |
| IPCC | Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change |
| ITP | Incidental take permit |
| JPE | Juvenile Production Estimate |
| LCMG | USFWS Delta Smelt Life-Cycle Model |
| LDS | Lake Diagnostic System |
| MAF | Million acre-feet |
| m | Meter |
| M&I | Municipal and industrial |
| mm | Millimeter |
| MSE | Management strategy evaluation |
| MSL | Mean Sea Level |
| NEPA | National Environmental Policy Act |
| NGO | Nongovernmental organization |
| NMFS | National Marine Fisheries Service |
| NOAA | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration |
| NTU | Nephelometric Turbidity Units |
| OBAN | Oncorhynchus Bayesian Analysis Network |
| OMR | Old and Middle River |
| OMRI | OMR Index |
| PDSI | Palmer Drought Severity Index |
| PG&E | Pacific Gas & Electric |
| ppt | Parts per thousand |
| PSMFC | Pacific States Marine Fisheries Commission |
| R2R | Reorienting to Recovery |
| RAFT | River Assessment for Forecasting Temperature |
| RBDD | Red Bluff Diversion Dam |
| RM | River Mile |
| ROD | Record of Decision |
| RST | Rotary screw trap |
| SAC-SMA | Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting |
| SaMT | Salmon Monitoring Team |
| SAV | Submersed aquatic vegetation |
| SCHISM | Semi-implicit Cross-scale Hydroscience Integrated System Model |
| SDM | Structured decision making |
| sDPS | Southern distinct population segment |
| SFE | San Francisco Estuary |
| SFEI | San Francisco Estuary Institute |
| SFHA | Summer-Fall Habitat Action |
| SGMA | Sustainable Groundwater Management Act |
| SHOT | Shasta Operations Team |
| SIT | Science Integration Team |
| SJR | San Joaquin River |
| SKT | Spring Kodiak Trawl |
| SLS | Smelt Larva Survey |
| SMT | Smelt Monitoring Team |
| SMSCG | Suisun Marsh Salinity Control Gates |
| SR | Sacramento River |
| SRG | Sacramento River Group |
| STARS | Survival, Travel time, and Routing Simulation |
| STN | Summer Townet Survey |
| SWP | State Water Project |
| SWRCB | California State Water Resources Control Board |
| TAF | Thousand acre-feet |
| TCD | Temperature Control Device |
| TDM | Temperature-dependent Mortality |
| TMP | Temperature management plan |
| TUCO | Temporary Use Change Order |
| UC | University of California |
| USACE | U.S. Army Corps of Engineers |
| USBR | U.S. Bureau of Reclamation |
| USFWS | U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service |
| USGS | U.S. Geological Survey |
| VIC | Variable Infiltration Capacity |
| WOMT | Water Operations Management Team |
| WRIMS | Water Resources Integrated Modeling System |
| WRLCM | Winter-Run Life Cycle Model |
| WTMP | Water Temperature Modeling Platform |
| WUA | Wetted Usable Area |
| ZOI | Zone of influence |
